Koizumi Departs

Published in New Age, September 27, 2006

As Koizumi departs a star sets over Japan

Japan after Koizumi will continue to remain the world’s second biggest economy, perhaps achieve more economic miracles but the nearly 5 years and five months of flamboyance and focus that Japan enjoyed under Koizumi’s tenure will take some efforts, luck, and a host of other factors to achieve again…. Japan and the world will be poorer without Koizumi, writes M Serajul Islam

In the land of the Rising Sun, a star has set. Prime minister Junichiro Koizumi stepped down as prime minister when Shinzo Abe assumed office of president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on 26 September which has ruled Japan since 1955 except for a few months in 1993. Koizumi had been Prime Minister for 5 years and five months that is in LDP’s factionalised politics almost a miracle making his tenure the third longest among Japan’s post-Second World War prime ministers. What makes Koizumi’s tenure exceptional is the fact that he stayed in power by dismantling almost all traditions in LDP’s secretive politics. In a society where consensus is of the essence, he stamped his own will and vision in all major decisions while he has been in power. Koizumi’s departure will end an era in Japan’s politics during which he split open Japan’s politics and economy and subjected both to much needed reforms that everyone thought were necessary but no one before him dared to undertake.

Koizumi’s long tenure defies any simple explanation because the odds he had to fight to remain in office have been tremendous. He inherited an office where power before him was exercised on the prime minister’s behalf by bosses of the factions of the ruling LDP. He inherited an economy that was stagnating because no prime minister before him had the courage or the political will to make the structural reforms that were necessary after the bubble economy burst in the early 1990s because a nexus among powerful politicians, bureaucrats and private sector stood in the way. Where no prime minister before him dared to tread because of these odds, Koizumi did so fearlessly and set into motion the reform agenda he had articulated in his mind from his long experience in politics. It may be too early to tell whether the path that Koizumi charted for his country will be successful for his reforms are still in incubation but by bringing the much needed reforms into the centre of the political stage, Koizumi has charted for Japan a course that no one contradicts was necessary.

A quintessential reformer
Koizumi has been the quintessential reformer. His family and political background both set him up for the role. An economics graduate of the prestigious Keio University, Koizumi went to England for further studies but returned without finishing his studies following the death of his father. In 1970, he became a political aide to Takeo Fukuda, later to become prime minister. As parliamentary vice-minister of finance (1979), minister of health (1988 and 1996) and minister of post and telecommunications (1992) he watched from very close quarters how an old generation of LDP leaders without a vision for the future was resisting change to maintain their privileges. He also prepared himself for his reform role from lessons he drew from historical figures such as Shoin Yoshida (1830-1859), a patriot and scholar, who in the turbulent period before the Meiji Restoration showed courage and conviction as an educator that helped produce many outstanding men who led Japan during the Meiji Restoration that ushered the country’s modern era. His other respected historical personality is Winston Churchill who influenced him by his indomitable sprit in fighting Hitler. His brief marriage in the late 1970s ended when his wife was pregnant with a third son who he never saw nor showed any inclination to see.

By the time he became prime minister, his politics and his vision for reforms were his sole focus in life. In his mind, he understood the reforms that needed to be taken for Japan’s future very clearly. Thus he could say upon becoming prime minister ‘I want to destroy the old LDP’ because he saw the resistance to change and reform that were necessary for Japan’s future embedded in his own party. He took up each reform issue separately with dedication that was awesome. In politics, he assessed that a weak prime minister, prey to faction bosses, was the crucial problem. Koizumi was thus determined to wrest power from the faction bosses and make the prime minister’s office powerful from day one in office. When Koizumi assumed office there were a number of factions in the LDP of which the Mori faction to which he himself belonged and the Hashimoto faction being the two largest. Behind the scenes, the faction bosses manoeuvred and controlled the members of the LDP, chose the prime ministers, selected for them their cabinets and also set their agendas. Koizumi’s first task was to take power away from the faction bosses. Upon becoming prime minister, he did not allow them to choose either his cabinet or the agenda of his government. He did so ruthlessly but efficiently without much more than a murmur. He encouraged young LDP parliamentarians to remain out of the influence of the factions. In fact, in the elections held last year, he brought to politics at least 80 young parliamentarians who have been given the name ‘Koizumi kids’. Koizumi personally encouraged these young Diet members not to sign into any faction in his desire to end the rule of the faction bosses within the LDP.

Economic reforms
In the economy, Koizumi’s reforms focused on breaking the hold of the central government over the local governments. He was keen to break the powerful ministry of finance that he identified as the root of many problems in the economy. In this regard, the trinity of reform package was the most important one. That package proposes to decentralise the financial powers of taxation from the centre to the local governments. Reforms have also been undertaken to cut down huge government expenditures.

Koizumi’s other key reform of the economy has been the privatisation of the postal services for which last year he even put his own future and his party’s at stake by dissolving the parliament and seeking an early election when some of his own members voted with the opposition to defeat the bills related to postal privatisation in the upper house. The privatisation of the postal services will release US$ 3 trillions for fruitful use, money that now languishes in deposits that are honey upon which the politicians and local-level bureaucrats infest. Once privatised, the postal service now employing close to 300,000 people will also be able to get rid of a huge and largely unnecessary bureaucracy.

In effect, Koizumi’s economic reforms have been directed in reducing the influence of the politicians and the bureaucrats who use the central government’s financial resources to indulge in huge public expenditures, a lot of them un-necessary, which have become breeding grounds of corruption. His focus was upon reducing the central government’s power, influence and expenditures through decentralisation.

International politics
In international politics, Koizumi gave Japan a new assertiveness. On Iraq, he went along with the USA, despite considerable opposition at home because he considered it necessary for strengthening the US-Japan strategic alliance. During his term, the Japan-US strategic alliance was reassessed and strengthened. He developed extremely close friendship with Bush.

Yet, when he needed to deal with the issues of the 13 abductees who were kidnapped to North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s, an issue that touches the psyche of every Japanese, he went to Pyongyang in September, 2002, against the United States’ expressed wishes and was able to bring back some of the abductees while getting information about a few others.

His yearly visits to the Yasukuni Shrine where 12 convicted and two indicted Class-A war criminals are enshrined have been made without fuss because he considered those visits necessary not to offend his neighbours but to encourage resurgent Japanese nationalism that has been suppressed for too long by what he believed to be imposed pacifism that is no longer consistent with Japan’s future when there is so much tension in the Korean Peninsula because of North Korea and her nuclear threat.

The US$ 10 billion fund evolved last year for helping the least developed countries has been another positive Koizumi initiative.

The legacy
How will history assess Koizumi? There are conflicting views. The majority view though is positive. He used his good looks and charismatic charm to cast spell upon his people who found in him the star appeal that Japanese politicians are known not to have. His reforms of the economy have set to motion many positive forces but it will take time to see the overall results. Also, the results will depend upon his successor’s will to pursue the reforms.

However, there are a few undeniable facts in favour of Koizumi. The mountain of bad debts at the banks has shrunk and the Nikkei stock exchange has swelled. The Japanese economy, after years of deflation and stagnation, is showing signs of sustainable recovery. His emphasis in breaking down the nexus among the politicians, bureaucracy and the private sector has been welcomed by his countrymen. Similarly, his trinity of reform package to decentralise the financial powers from the sentre to the local governments; steps to reduce public spending and reforms aimed at deregulating industries have also been well received.

Koizumi’s reforms have been directed towards taking power away from the politicians and the bureaucrats who between them have sustained a system where both have benefited greatly in receiving financial benefits and related perks from the private sector. Last year, when his Postal Privatisation Bills were defeated in the upper house of parliament, Koizumi immediately dissolved parliament that he did not have to as losing a bill in upper house was not a test of confidence. His onetime mentor, former prime minister Mori, had advised him against the decision and for a brief period, there was talk in Tokyo that Koizumi’s decision would bring the end of the LDP’s almost stranglehold on power. Koizumi fought that election almost single-handedly, a fight that was as much with the opposition as was with members of his own party who opposed him on the Postal Privatisation Bill. He ensured that all the opponents in his party were just not thrown from the LDP, but that they also did not return to the parliament individually. He ensured both by nominating against the “postal rebels” the best LDP candidates and himself campaigned with the voters to defeat them. By appealing to the people directly with his charisma, Koizumi won for the LDP a 2/3rd majority that was a gamble that Koizumi alone could take and a miracle that he alone could achieve.

In foreign affairs, his supporters will speak in glowing terms for he gave Japan new assertiveness against his predecessors’ timid initiatives.

Koizumi has critics nevertheless. He will be criticised for his authoritarian manner where he has dealt with opposition ruthlessly and mercilessly. Koizumi will also be criticised for his over-zealousness on reforms while paying too little attention on Japanese society and its problems such as her aging and declining population, the needs of social security nets, etc. Minoru Morita, an elder journalist of Japan and a well known Koizumi critic, says this of his administration: ‘The Koizumi administration was the worst possible for the Japanese people. In terms of foreign diplomacy, it worsened relations with neighbouring countries, while domestically it spawned severe disparities within society. A small number of people reaped benefits. The great majority, however, suffered considerable disadvantage and lost hope.’ Morita credits Koizumi or creating a new class called ‘freeters’ who he describes as ‘hordes of directionless young workers who drift from one low-paid job to another without gaining marketable skills’.

Koizumi, his critics will also say, has destroyed the old Japan, its paternalistic political order in particular but he has failed to bring a consensus among the Japanese who, while giving him the best approval rating of 50% among Japan’s long serving prime ministers, also acknowledge that he has shaken up Japan and in that, he has destroyed both the bad and the good of that Japan. Hence they fear that there could be a backlash to his reforms.

Japan’s failure to win the permanent seat in the UN Security Council because of her hasty decision to join the G4 Group will no doubt be seen by critics as a failure of Japan’s foreign policy under Koizumi’s watch who will likewise criticize Koizumi for bringing Japan’ relations with China to an all-time low.

Koizumi’s successor, Shinzo Abe, has vowed to continue with the reforms. Abe has shared a lot of the Koizumi vision as the LDP secretary-general (2003) and later as chief cabinet secretary (2005). However, Koizumi has been the reformer willing to bet his future and his party’s on both instincts and beliefs. He did not hesitate in reducing wasteful public expenditures that have traditionally won the LDP votes across the country. It is unlikely Abe will be a reformer in the Koizumi mould. Koizumi has also been immensely lucky as was the case with his decision to dispatch SDF forces to Iraq where a few deaths would have been disaster for him. In Iraq where all countries who dispatched troops have lost some of them, Japan was the lucky country whose troops returned unharmed and the benefit of that luck has gone entirely all to Koizumi.

Japan after Koizumi will continue to remain the world’s second biggest economy, perhaps achieve more economic miracles but the nearly 5 years and five months of flamboyance and focus that Japan enjoyed under Koizumi’s tenure will take some efforts, luck, and a host of other factors to achieve again. Tanaka, the Foreign Minister he once sacked, called him a weirdo, others have called him a maverick but in the end when he leaves, he will be loved by many more people than will criticise him because politicians like Koizumi come upon a people at very large intervals. Abe will become Prime Minister without any past ministerial experience but great family connections and may eventually make a very good prime minister but Japan and the world will be poorer without Koizumi.

The writer is a former ambassador of Bangladesh to Japan. He can be reached at Serajul_islam@uignet.com

Controversial politics, not so controversial issues

Published in The New Age, September 18, 2006

The issues over which the country’s politics have become uncertain and volatile are serious but not intractable and at least one related to justice Hasan has been made controversial on premises that conflict with both reason and the Constitution. The NDI Report while encouraging all parties (in this instance the AL) to go for elections, identifies the real problems in Bangladesh’s politics as partisanship and lack of communication between the parties who ‘appear estranged from real word challenges and needs of 140 million people of Bangladesh.’ The NDI Report sees serious problems to holding the next elections but feels there is ample time between now and election date to resolve them, writes M Serajul Islam

The country is fast turning into a battle ground, thanks to our mainstream political parties. With just a little over a month left for the BNP-led government to complete its tenure when the major political parties should be eagerly preparing for an election under a non-party caretaker government (NCG), foreboding dark clouds loom large in our political horizon. The 14 parties led by the Awami League have threatened that unless two critical political issues are resolved before the BNP-led government hands over office to the NCG, they would not go for elections and will not allow elections to be held either. The AL is threatening that they will not allow even Ramadan to stand in their way. The BNP is stubbornly refusing to accede to the AL demands. Recent hartals, attempted barricades of the PMO and related agitations have given us a preview of what the AL has in mind. What are the issues then that is encouraging the AL to push the country to the brink of disaster?

The first is related to the Election Commission that they believe has become a BNP camp. They want the Chief Election Commissioner and his colleagues to resign. They also have reservation about the voters’ list which has suddenly become inflated with 2 crores additional voters. The second issue is related to the head of the next NCG. The AL has objection to his appointment because they claim that his past membership of the BNP in the late 1970s and early 1980s from which he resigned to be a judge contradicts the crucial element of neutrality as laid down in the Constitution. The AL’s objection to Justice KM Hasan is also based upon his opting out from hearing the trial of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and BNP government’s decision to extend the retirement age of the judges from 65 to 67 that placed him in position to be the next head of the NCG. They claim both compromise his neutrality.

The NDI team that recently came to Bangladesh to talk with the two parties gave the country an objective view on the issues. On justice Hasan, NDI has observed that although concerns expressed about him are legitimate objections, ‘past service to a political party should not be an automatic disqualification to public service’. The NDI has dispelled AL’s concerns by stating that the head of NCG works with 10 other advisers and ‘under intense international and domestic scrutiny’ and hence his ability to be biased is very limited. The NDI has recommended that the CG ‘should be formed according to he rules provided in the Constitution.’ On the EC, the NDI Report advised the CEC to address the ‘perceptions of bias and incompetence that are undermining public confidence in the electoral process’. The most important part of the NDI report is its clear message that ‘election should not be held hostage to the intransigent position of either the government or any political party’.

The NDI Report however has not looked into the constitutional provisions on NCG in depth. The provisions of the NCG are covered under Part 1V, Chapter 11A, Articles 58B to 58E of the Constitution. The issue of neutrality is discussed in Article 58C sub Para 7 (b) in the context of qualifications of advisers. The head of the NCG is required to fulfil the same qualifications as advisers. Article 58C sub Para 7 starts with a preamble that reads: ‘The President shall appoint Advisers from among persons who are:’ and goes on to inscribe in Para 7 (b) ‘not members of any political party or of any organisation associated with or affiliated to any political party’. The qualification in the Constitution on neutrality is written unequivocally in the present tense without need for a second interpretation. A person can be disqualified to be a head of the NCG on the issue of neutrality only if he is at the time of assuming the office, a member of any political party or any organisation affiliated to any political party. Justice Hasan was a member of the BNP that he resigned in the early 1980s and has since risen from a judge to a chief justice during which period he has been a respected member of the judiciary. The Constitution therefore places justice Hasan in the clear to head the NCG on the issue of neutrality. It also leaves the BNP with no power to negotiate with the AL on justice Hasan.

The other objections against justice Hasan are also untenable. In fact, the issue that he was ‘embarrassed’ to hear the Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s murder trial should go in favour of justice Hasan because he showed the integrity to withdraw from the trial as he was related to one of the accused. Despite the extreme brutality of that case and the need to try and punish those responsible, the trial under the AL government was held in extremely charged circumstances where facts were not carefully considered. We should not forget that the case was tried over 20 years after the murders during which many facts were either lost or not properly represented. Let me provide a couple of examples here. The presiding magistrate was so carried away by sentiments that while passing sentence of death upon the accused, he wrote into his judgment that they should be shot before a firing squad, a mode of punishment given only in a military court. Recently I have read Christopher Hitchen’s Trial of Henry Kissinger where the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman has been covered explicitly. The revelations in the book make no secret of the role of an external power and on behalf of that power, that country’s intelligence organisation, in encouraging the assassinations. None of these facts came out during the trial that have left it incomplete. I am not sure what else was in justice Hasan’s mind when he ‘embarrassed’ himself but then an honest and truthful judge could have been motivated to put the entire judgment aside on grounds that the trial was not sufficiently transparent. The final objection against justice Hasan that the retirement age of judges was extended from 65 to 67 to ensure that he would be the next head of the NCG is a fact for which the AL can accuse the BNP and make political capital during the elections. The BNP did not consult justice Hasan in taking that decision. To accuse him that this act of the BNP would compromise his neutrality and make him pro-BNP is unfair. As a diplomat during the AL rule, I have read many speeches of the prime minister and the foreign minister where they took great credit for the concept of NCG that they claimed was Bangladesh’s original contribution to democracy. There was then not even a murmur that the system needed any reform.

The Constitution clears justice Hasan but does not explain the BNP’s extension of the retirement age. But then that is politics. The Awami League would have done the same if they knew that by not extending the retirement age, the head of the NCG would be someone they perceived to be pro-BNP. I do not want to name that judge here but the more important reason for the BNP to extend the retirement age was to keep him from being the next head of NCG. During a trip to Saudi Arabia towards the end of her government, Sheikh Hasina, feeling confident about her party’s chances, hinted an early election to an audience there. The hint was put in cold storage immediately afterwards when it was found that an early election would place a person the AL was not conformable with as the head of the NCG. The AL completed its term and elections were held under justice Latifur Rahman. It is a different story why the AL later turned so critical about justice Rahman.

The AL’s objection on EC is somewhat different. The Constitution gives the EC extensive powers on the one hand and takes away a lot of it by the other. The president appoints the CEC and the commissioners on advice of the prime minister. The EC staff is also provided by the president’s orders but again on recommendations of the prime minister. In practice therefore the Constitution places the EC under the PMO. Both BNP and the AL have used the connection to their fullest advantage. It is true that the BNP has staffed the present commission with persons who are closer to them, if not politically, at least individually. The AL also used the PMO/EC connection blatantly when they appointed Safiur Rahman to the commission after the latter had served the AL government faithfully with extensions as the home secretary. Though Safiur Rahman did not join the Janatar Mancha in 1996, as a sitting secretary he gave a statement in the press openly expressing his commitment with the Mancha. Despite what is being said against the present commissioners, none of the present lot in the EC had the sort of link Safiur Rahman had with the AL. As with the NCG, the AL’s criticism about the commission is being ventilated only because the commissioners there are now being seen by them as pro-BNP. It must also not be overlooked that former CEC Syed Ahmed was considered by the BNP as pro-AL. The BNP’s objection to his appointment was dismissed summarily. That the AL later termed him as pro-BNP is relevant to the AL way of thinking. When things go their way, everything is fine; when things go wrong, the persons and institutions they have supported need immediate reform and/or change.

The present EC has nevertheless become controversial because of the BNP’s handling to which the CEC has also contributed his fair share. The NDI Report has flagged this very explicitly. The inflation in the voters’ list and the way it has been compiled have also added to the controversy about the EC in the public mind. In fact, there are very few people in the country today who feel that the present set-up of the EC would be congenial to the holding of a free and fair election where the role of the EC would be more important than the head of the NCG.
The PM’s call on September 15th for talks between the two major parties at the level of secretary general is a positive sign but the AL’s first response has been negative. Other recent developments such as BNP-led government’s decision to name a new commissioner, who has been a significant beneficiary of this government, and AL’s new programme for agitations suggest intensification rather than resolution of the issues. The AL propagandists have been feeding people disinformation by telling them that the next head of NCG could easily be chosen from an eminent citizen. However that would be easy only if the Constitution is by-passed for if for some reason justice Hasan opts out (under the Constitution that is the only way to meet the AL demand), the position would then have to be offered to the next chief justice in line and in the unlikely event that he would also opt out for any reason, the next CJ would be offered the position and it will take many more judges to opt out before the position could be offered to an eminent citizen. The million dollar question would then be whether the BNP and the AL would agree on an individual for the post. The chances of that are just too remote.

The issues over which the country’s politics have become uncertain and volatile are thus serious but not intractable and at least one related to justice Hasan has been made controversial on premises that conflict with both reason and the Constitution. The NDI Report while encouraging all parties (in this instance the AL) to go for elections, identifies the real problems in Bangladesh’s politics as partisanship and lack of communication between the parties who ‘appear estranged from real word challenges and needs of 140 million people of Bangladesh.’ The NDI Report sees serious problems to holding the next elections but feels there is ample time between now and election date to resolve them.

There is thus no reason to despair yet. AL’s ability to put a gridlock on the government would be limited by lack of public support. BNP’s opposition to AL demands on the EC that have public support by propping the latter would be gone once the NCG takes over. The demands would also have better consideration then. The international community has a continued interest in Bangladesh as seen by the NDI and EU delegations’ visits and most recently by the offer of the Americans to negotiate. They would no doubt all urge both the mainstream parties to be reasonable. Justice Hasan has shown no indication of opting out and there is no reason why he should. Attempts to force him out would also not have public support. The international community would also not recommend justice Hasan to stand down. If the AL wishes to push out justice Hasan by force, they will lose both public support and sympathy of important friends of Bangladesh who are disillusioned with the BNP’s poor governance over a host of issues, particularly those related to the Islamic militancy. Therefore if the AL is serious about coming back to power, they have to accept justice Hasan, push through for reforms in the EC under the CG and, of course, participate in the elections. Otherwise, they would be playing into the hands of the BNP which as it leaves government, stands on very unsure ground so far their chances of returning to office are concerned.

Hung Parliament

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Published in The New Age September 14, 2006

Could a hung parliament resolve politics of confrontation?

As the next election nears, the politicians are getting more confrontational although the public have had enough of that. It is therefore likely that the people could use the next elections to make the politicians heed to their disappointment and frustrations. They could use their voting power to impose sense upon the insensitive politicians of the BNP and the AL by giving neither enough seats to form the government, writes M Serajul Islam

As the Muslims of pre-1947 Bengal, we were the force behind the partition of India that created Pakistan. As East Pakistanis, we fought one of the most glorious wars of liberation of the last century and created Bangladesh. In the 1980s, we struggled successfully against military dictatorship and established democracy in the country. We had three peaceful changes of government through elections since then where twice, in 1996 and 2001, the incumbent governments were voted out. Yet, after struggling for close to a century for establishing democracy and people's rights, our politicians are still in same confrontational mood as if we have not moved one step in the right direction in achieving people's rights. Is this rational?

Like any developing country, Bangladesh's politics is not perfect. The government speaks of the people and their rights but often acts in reverse. Hence, there is a good reason for the politicians in opposition to demand, at times demonstrate and in extreme cases, fight in the streets for some of these rights. Such imperfection in politics overshadows the smooth functioning of government in most developing societies. Bangladesh is no exception. However, the comparison between Bangladesh and other developing countries ends there, and we differ with other developing countries in a number of unique ways. First, there is no nation on earth that has such a prolonged history of agitation against authority as if Bangladesh and agitation against authority have become synonymous. Second, we are the only nation on earth where the opposition has agitated against both the dictatorial and the democratic government with equal enthusiasm and energy. Finally, our politics is also unique because those in opposition have done exactly what they have accused the government of doing when they themselves were in power.

We will soon have another general election to be held under a neutral caretaker government. On three previous occasions, elections were held and power was transferred peacefully and on each occasion, the parliament has completed full term. This time, the elections will be held when Bangladesh has had a period of sound economic growth that has led Goldman and Sachs to identify Bangladesh as one of the 11 developing nations to watch in the next few years. Yet, among the politicians, the conflict has reached a new dimension where many abroad are saying Bangladesh is close to being a failed state. In the country, many people are apprehensive whether the elections will be held on schedule because of the intensification of the politics of confrontation.
Historically, our prolonged tryst with confrontational politics has one good explanation. Bangladesh is perhaps the only country that had to de-colonise twice in the span of 25 years. In the struggle for independence from British, the province of Bengal was at the forefront of both constitutional and confrontational politics. It used to be said then that what 'Bengal thinks today, the rest of India thinks tomorrow'. Legends like Titu Mir and Netaji Subash Chandra Bose, revolutionaries like Surja Sen and Pritilata Waddar were from Bengal. When the politics of British India took a religious turn, the Bengali Muslims led by legendary leaders like AK Fazlul Huq and Hussein Shaheed Suhrawardy showed the Muslims of the rest of India the way to achieve Pakistan. However, when they found that they had been betrayed and had instead stepped from one colonial domination to another by creating Pakistan, their free spirit did not take long to stand against Pakistan's oppressive rule, often against military dictators in which they were led brilliantly by Sheikh Mujib and a host of other leaders including Maulana Bhasani. The most glorious manifestation of that liberal spirit was shown when we won our liberation war after 9 months of struggle in 1971.

The achievements of the politicians and the people that culminated with the emergence of Bangladesh should have ended our confrontational politics to reap the harvests of our long struggle for a better quality of life and freedom from all forms of oppression. Unfortunately, that did not happen for soon after liberation, Bangladesh went back to the same confrontational politics, like our colonial days were yet to be over. The AL's move towards one-party rule through BAKSAL was then a genuine reason for the opposition for confrontation. Earlier, in 1973, the Awami League had rigged the elections so extensively that one Western Ambassador had privately commented that Bangladeshis should kneel down in prayer for their future.

For a brief period when Justice Sayem was the president and chief martial law administrator, there was no agitation or movement against the government. Once power passed to general Zia and he turned into a politician, the movement started again against the government. After Zia was assassinated in 1981, there was a brief rule by president Sattar who was removed in a bloodless military coup by general Ershad that brought the country under a long period of military dictatorship. In the ten years of his military dictatorship, the political leadership led by Khaleda Zia, heading the BNP, and Sheikh Hasina, heading the Awami League, agitated against military rule in which the people whole-heartedly supported the politicians. The spirit among the people, though qualitatively different from their spirit during the war of liberation, was against a government that had usurped people's power that was anathema to the spirit that motivated them to fight for independence.

The downfall of Ershad should have removed from our politics for good the confrontation between the government and the opposition political parties except what is normal for any country trying to establish democracy. Unfortunately this did not happen and people's hopes that were raised in 1971 to be dashed by AL attempts to move Bangladesh towards one-party dictatorship under BAKSAL were again dashed because this time the Awami League did not take its defeat in the 1991 elections gracefully and instead accused the BNP of coming to power by fraudulent means. For the entire tenure of BNP's first term, the Awami League made governance difficult for the BNP and life intolerable for the public. The public, who had supported strategies like hartal and other uses of conformational politics under Ershad, saw no reason for these strategies under a democratic government no matter how seriously the latter failed in governance. The AL walked out of parliament and took politics to the streets as if the BNP government was qualitatively no better than Ershad's military dictatorship. When the BNP was voted to the opposition, they accepted the same style of politics against an elected government and continued the politics of confrontation, using hartals and boycott of parliament the same way as the AL. As a consequence, the senseless politics of confrontation became the accepted norm. The worst manifestation of this negative politics can be seen in the hatred that Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia have for each other where Hasina cannot even pronounce the name of Khaleda Zia without showing contempt that is absurd and unhealthy for our politics or for that matter any civilised politics anywhere.

When governments of the past usurped power, the people whole heartedly supported the agitation of the political parties against these governments. When opposition political parties continued with this against elected governments, the people silently suffered but did not support these agitations or movements although the parties carried out their confrontation in their name with their hired goons. In the current context, the public feels that AL's demands for reforms of the electoral process that they could have themselves resolved when in power, can still be settled and should be through negotiations under the caretaker government. Today, almost everybody agrees that hartal is not a democratic strategy against an elected government. Almost everybody likewise feels that hartal achieves nothing for the people, increases their miseries, and makes governance difficult. Opinion is unanimous among the people that even if the right to call hartal can be accepted, attempts to enforce hartals by force and punish those who oppose it is fascism that should be banned for good from Bangladesh's politics. The sufferings from hartal were brought home last July when as a result of AL's call for 72 hours' hartal many students lost a year as they could not sit for their A and O level exams. In my years on tour of duty as an Ambassador, use of hartal was one issue in our politics that I could never defend without rendering myself silly. I had little problem explaining concerns about Islamic militancy, or allegations of communalism, etc. It was always the permanent state of confrontation, often on issues too silly to explain rationally, that made me defensive and embarrassed me before my hosts.

The politicians are indulging in the politics of confrontation because of their zero-sum mentality manifested in total lack of accommodation for each other's views, where they do not even have a single national agenda upon which to accommodate or cooperate. Their impatience to push the elected government out of office after losing an election is indeed strange and unreasonable. Moreover, they never succeed in shortening the tenure of an elected government by such means even by a day but succeed incredibly well in harming individual as well as national interests. In their parochial mentality and very narrow self interests, they do not take heed of the wisdom of the people of Bangladesh who have never failed to demonstrate when allowed to use their voting power in voting out an inefficient and corrupt Government. In 1991, after Ershad fell, political analysts gave the BNP no chance against the AL because of the latter's organisation that extended up to the grassroots level. The people, keeping in mind their sufferings under the first AL rule and Khaleda Zia's uncompromising stand against Ershad while Sheikh Hasina had at least once compromised with the dictator by participating in the 1986 elections, voted the BNP to power. When the BNP failed in governance, they voted the AL to office, influenced additionally by Sheikh Hasina's publicly sought apology for people's sufferings during their first term in office. When the AL failed to deliver and backtracked on election promises and was found soft on terror, the people voted Khaleda Zia back to office. Thus the people of Bangladesh have never failed to correctly choose between the parties keeping the country's interests in view. Therefore, all the confrontation that opposition parties have indulged against the government, which has rendered the country's economy near death-blows and its image almost brain-damage, have been un-necessary because the agitations have never achieved the desired results while the people never failed to vote inefficient governments out of office through elections.

Anybody looking back into the last 15 years of Bangladesh's politics would see, with a little bit of objectivity, that the charges that the AL and BNP have brought against each other as an opposition party are identical almost to the details. As opposition, each accused the other of misrule, corruption, favouritism, politicisation of the administration, political oppression, etc. In government, both have acted strangely but certainly in the same way, in a state of denial to opposition's accusations, provocative rather than accommodative to their demands and actively helped sharpen government-opposition confrontation. To heighten the agitation and confrontation, they have brought issues of history, patriotism, and role of individuals in our independence movement by placing respected and revered leaders of our country into contrasting and conflicting roles to further damage the politics of the country. While the people have interest in all these issues, they do not believe that any of the issues upon which the two parties have built the disastrous politics of confrontation is serious enough to fight in the streets or use suicidal strategies like hartal that end up causing the people and the country unimaginable hardships and damages. Everybody now knows the financial losses to the country from a day's hartal which is enormous and both the BNP and AL have imposed thousands of days of such madness upon the country. Everybody also knows hartals have not had any effect, nor should it have, upon democratically elected governments in pushing them out of office. Both have a lot of explanation therefore to do for the damages their selfish and insensitive politics have done to Bangladesh.

As the next election nears, the politicians are getting more confrontational although the public have had enough of that. It is therefore likely that the people could use the next elections to make the politicians heed to their disappointment and frustrations. They could use their voting power to impose sense upon the insensitive politicians of the BNP and the AL by giving neither enough seats to form the government. They could very likely hang the next Parliament. Bangladesh has come a long way, seeing through two colonial rules, political assassinations and military dictatorships to allow the self-centred politicians lead the country towards a failed state when we have been identified based on our sound achievements in the economic and social sectors of growth as a country with a future. Notwithstanding the politicians' seeming ability to play with our future, thanks to the system of caretaker government, there comes a time every five years when neither of the major parties looks that strong before the voters. It is surprising how Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina can overlook this for both have seen this power of the people, Khaleda in 1996 and Hasina in 2001. In serving notice upon each separately in the past, the voters now know they have failed in what they wanted, namely from one elected, a honest and sincere administration based on their election promises and from the other, a responsible opposition working within the parliament to make the government accountable. Unfortunately, upon getting elected, the one that assumed power became almost dictatorial, and the other voted to opposition became anarchist. It is time for the voters to deal with both, for the fight is still between the BNP and the AL. The voters, without any favourite this time between the two because of their politics of confrontation, may make both sweat by giving neither a majority so that whichever forms the next government will have to do so with a coalition partner (outside their pre- election alliances), lead a weak government and hence will not have the luxury of governing by whims. The one in opposition will always have the sniff of power without having to wait the long five years after losing an election knowing that the weak government could fall from inside the parliament rather than agitating in the streets to make it fall. The only uncertain element in this scenario is the absence of a third force but the way the politics is evolving, the third force could come from the Bikolpo Dhara, Ershad and/or break-away factions of the BNP which seems almost ready to break off in the seams as a result of the conflict between the younger, impatient elements in the party and the older generation of leaders.

The writer is a former ambassador of Bangladesh to Japan

The Hair Affair: Cricket and the First World Hypocrisy

Published in The New Age, September 3, 2006

The ICC’s line of defence that they cannot allow member countries dictate the Umpires they would play with should not be brought in any attempt to save Hair or the likes of him. Let ICC make good use of this affair to nip in the bud the ugly head of racism in cricket, writes M Serajul Islam

The hearing on the infamous Darrel Hair decision to punish Pakistan for ball tampering that resulted in Pakistan forfeiting the fourth Test match and Captain Inzi facing a charge of bringing the game to disrepute will now be held in the end of September. In a way this delay is good for the game because it will allow the one-day series between England and Pakistan to go on as scheduled. It will also allow everyone upon whom the task of adjudicating and assisting in that adjudication to be dispassionate about an event that had, and still has, potentials to divide the cricket world along racial lines, bringing back memories of the apartheid days when South African team was banned for racial policies of its government.

Looking back to the incident and facts revealed thereafter, it is hard to imagine how a man described as one of the game’s best Umpires could take such an appalling and atrocious decision. At the time the incident occurred, cricket was at its best. The Pakistan team that badly lost two of the three previous Test matches was playing for pride and doing exceptionally well. On the three previous days of the Test, Pakistan had outclassed England almost completely, bringing out their undeniable potentials. On that eventful fourth day, England team was fighting back and, although Pakistan still held the whip hand, it looked like England could save the game. They were just 33 runs short of wiping a huge 321 runs first innings deficit with six wickets remaining and a day and one session to go. On the field, except for intensely positive cricket, there was not even the thinnest layer of any cricketing cloud that hinted at the drama that was to unfold. At one end, Pakistan’s leg spinner Danesh Kanneria was making very good use of the rough patches on the wicket made by bowlers’ foot marks and constantly threatening the English batsmen. At the other end, Omar Gul and Asif were bowling alternatively. The English batsman Cook was just out, lbw to Umar Gul, after playing a lucky innings of 83 during which he was always at sea against Kanneria. Cook fell to a ball that happened to reverse swing that was normal because the ball was then nearly 60-over old. Balls naturally reverse swing when that old because the fielding team polishes it, as legally permitted, on one side, allowing the other side to deteriorate by wear and tear which distributes weight unevenly on the ball to make it swing in reverse. When the fielding team deliberately damages the ball using sharp instruments or their nails, that act becomes illegal as ball tampering.

When Cook fell, none watching the game saw anything untoward. Pakistan captain Inzi saw Cook’s dismissal as a normal fall of a wicket and did not bother to change Kanneria for despite the Gul wicket, the ball was not reverse swinging enough for him to change the leg spinner who has no use for a ball that reverse swings. The TV commentators also saw Cook’s dismissal as just a wicket for Gul and praised his delivery. The commentators were Botham, Atherton, Lloyd, Ramiz and Michael Holding, all past master cricketers and undoubted cricket authorities. None of them were even remotely thinking what was going on in the mind of Umpire Darrel Hair around the time of Cook’s dismissal. TV footages have now revealed that Hair was glancing a few times at Asif when he was rubbing the ball on his trouser, a normal act by itself. But at that time, there was none who was prepared for what happened when Hair suddenly took the ball in his hand with England’s score reading at 298/4 (Cook fell when score was 277) and went to his fellow Umpire Doctrove and then motioned to the Third Umpire who was then seen running to the field with a set of old replacement balls. The cricket commentators started to feel uneasy only when Hair took the ball to the English batsmen. The public and those watching the game at home thought that the Umpire was replacing a ball that had lost shape, a normal affair in cricket these days. That assumption was first dispelled as Inzi was seen walking to Hair and apparently proTesting. The Pakistan players gathered around were silent but glum hinting something ominous was developing. It was only when Hair took his position and raised his hand to signal 5 penalty points that the commentators begin to express their surprise and dismay. Hair, on his part by raising innocuously his hand over his shoulder, publicly passed a judgment upon the Pakistan team that they had tampered with the ball and hence had cheated. At that point, the commentators were all convinced that they had seen no evidence of ball tampering and praised Inzi for his dignified handling of Hair’s unilateral, almost dictatorial judgment. Hair had acted as a one-man judicial system, where he was prosecution, judge and jury, an unbelievably arrogant posture for a man who happened to have been a lawyer before becoming a Test match Umpire.

The accusation and judgment part of the Hair affair was enacted in public view. Thanks to modern technology, every second of that part of the drama was recorded on TV footages. The second part of the drama that has brought Inzi in the stand was enacted behind scenes. Here the enactments of the drama, the role of the people and issues have come to public knowledge in bits and pieces. This part began at the tea interval and by that time, events passed on like wildfire from the cricketers concerned to the cricket authorities and very importantly to the entire Pakistan nation where even that country’s President together with millions of his countrymen were watching events live. Hair’s decision was just not an award of 5 penalty runs; seen in Pakistan, it was an accusation that reflected upon the entire nation. On scene at Lords at that time was Pakistan’s Cricket Board’s Chairman Shahryar Khan, a former Foreign Secretary of his country. Quite naturally he, together with Manager Zaheer Abbas and Coach Bob Woolmer, decided to proTest the decision but left it to the Captain to begin the process of proTest. Inzi, though a great player and successful captain, is not known for articulating his thoughts well enough in speech in English. He was allowed to face an opponent (by then Hair was that to the Pakistan team) who is an astute lawyer well conversant with the laws of the game. When Hair and his fellow Umpire came to the field with the English batsmen after tea break, the Pakistani team had decided to stay back in the dressing room for sometime to show their proTest, undoubtedly under instructions of their management. Hair, on his part, took every step thereafter as a lawyer and went to Inzi to ask his team to take the field. Unaware of the laws of the game in the relevant details, Inzi inquired from Hair instead why his team had been accused of ball tampering. Hair responded correctly that he had not come to discuss the ball tampering but to ask Pakistan Team to take the field and then walked back to the wickets. On not finding the Pakistan Team on field, he took the bails off and, going by the laws of the game, forfeited the game to England, the first such instance in Test cricket’s 123 years’ history. The forfeiture automatically implied guilt which fell on heavy shoulders of Inzi who now faces an eight match ban for bringing the game to disrepute. Although Shahryar and his colleagues later sent the Pakistan team to field, Hair was unimpressed and remained unmoved on his forfeiture decision.

The match referee Mike Proctor, who was standing by for Ranjan Madhugale for the Test, was one key official who failed to impose his authority on the development of events. It is true that in cricket, the Umpires on field have great authority on interpretation of the laws of the game. That responsibility was Hair’s but then there was another Umpire Doctrove on field who was not even second fiddle to Hair when the latter was taking the decisions and appeared no more than a sidekick to him. As match referee, Mike Proctor also had authority that he failed to use as the drama evolved and went out of hands. Hair was the dominant one, controlling the events like he had more than absolute authority over the proceedings. So overbearing was he that even his manners as seen on TV made him look like he had utter disdain on what his insensitive decision was leading to. Up to the point when Inzi delayed his decision to take field, there was wide consensus articulated by the cricket commentators that Hair’s decision was unfair because there was no physical evidence at all that the Pakistan team had tampered the ball.

The events started to drift considerably once it became known that Inzi had refused to take the field and Hair had awarded the game to England. Then, there was a conscious move by the white-dominated cricket administration, led by Hair’s fellow Australian ICC Chief Malcolm Speed, to let Hair off the hook by putting heat on Inzi and charging him for bringing the game to disrepute by refusing to play. Even on Indian sports programmes, commentators were leaving Hair and going after Inzi. At that moment, it looked like Hair was on clear and the noose of an insensitive cricketing administration was fast tightening around the neck of Inzi.

It was Hair’s arrogance again, and stupidity this time, that brought about another dramatic twist to the sordid saga. Hair, perhaps aware in his own mind that he had done grave wrong, and convinced that the ICC would bail him out, sent to Malcolm Speed an email asking a payment of US$ 500,000 to step down from the Panel of Test Match Umpires. For Speed this was too much to digest for he too knew that in the end, Hair would be found guilty. So he released the email to the press, despite Hair’s request for confidentiality, called the email a ‘stupid act’ and in saving has own skin, has proven to the world that Hair was guilty of his original act and the email was another clear proof of his guilt.

So why did Hair take such an astounding decision on no evidence at all? Why did he not consult fellow Umpire Doctrove? Why not Match Referee Proctor who had TV footages before him? Why did he not warn the Pakistan team before his decision? In all that have transpired since the event, there are no answers to these important questions in defence of Hair. Hence, those analysing the affair have looked into Hair’s past and there evidences are galore to reach a few conclusions. Hair has a history of problems with South Asian cricketers. He was the one who called Murlitharan for throwing many times when his fellow Umpire did not despite pressure from him. He gave Inzi out once when he was protecting himself for a fielder’s direct throw at him. He pulled Kanneria out from bowling for walking to the pitch without warning as required under the law. The Sri Lankans have given in writing that they would not want him to Umpire their games. Pakistan has expressed similar views about Hair. Second, as an Umpire he places his authority too high and rules out flexibility for which he also ran into trouble with the Indians and teams outside South Asia. He was already well known for his arrogance that the ICC wrongly termed as competence.

In the Australian and British media, subjective and unfair conclusions are often reached about cricketers from South Asia. Based on one or two players’ indiscretion, teams are branded as cheats, match fixers, etc. Sometimes, such aspersions are insensitively placed upon nations as in this Hair case where the Umpire’s action has pointed a finger upon Pakistan as a nation of cheats. However, when such indiscretion is found in the Australian, British or South African cricketers, those are often passed on as individual indiscretions. In that context, Australian cricketers and cricket authorities seem to get the maximum benefit. Indiscretion by Warne and the Waugh brothers; Dennis Lily kicking Javed Miandad in public view, or cricketer turned commentator Dean Jones’ racial comments never reflect upon the Australian team or upon Australia. Michael Holding made the most pertinent comments on this bias while supporting Inzi against Hair. Writing for India Today, Holding said that Hair was both wrong and insensitive in accusing Pakistan because he had no evidence at all to prove his accusation. Holding further wrote that today in cricket there is a clear double standard favouring the “first world” teams. When English bowlers used reverse swing to beat Australia last year in the Ashes series, the English sport scribes were ecstatic and called their bowlers very skillful. When Pakistan does this they become cheats. Holding called this “first word hypocrisy” adding that when a bomb blasts in Colombo or Karachi, there are instant calls to cancel the tour. When bombs go off in London, no one says anything. The other crucial point in the Holding article was that to say that cricketing law is absolute and Umpires are final authorities are pointless arguments and there should be flexibility. With Umpire like Hair around, it is either flexibility or beginning of the end of cricket as a gentlemen’s game.

The Hair decision was premeditated, taken on no physical evidence. In his arrogance, he even did not consider consulting sources he could and should have consulted. His offer to settle for money to quit cricket should leave no one in any doubt about his guilt. If those who would decide upon the fate of cricket and sit on the Inzi case, Ranjan Madhugale in particular, have any love and respect for cricket being a gentleman’s game, they should unequivocally dismiss the case against Inzi and decide upon Hair as unwanted for the fair game of cricket and ban him for life. The ICC’s line of defence that they cannot allow member countries dictate the Umpires they would play with should not be brought in any attempt to save Hair or the likes of him. Let ICC make good use of this affair to nip in the bud the ugly head of racism in cricket.

BJP president’s call to attack Bangladesh

Published in The New Age, August 23, 2008 Bangladesh needs to first put its own house in order and build up genuine bipartisanship over her relations with India for the country’s future, not just that of the BNP or the Awami League, are inextricably linked with her for, first, reasons of geopolitics and, second, the emerging realities of international politics, writes M Serajul Islam The statement made by Rajnath Singh, the president of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), that India should attack Pakistan and Bangladesh and destroy the terrorist bases in the two countries was a very serious matter. It was made by the president of a political party that was in government in New Delhi only recently and still has the potentials to return to power. For the president of such an important party of India to have made such a statement gives it a fair degree of legitimacy. In Bangladesh, the statement of Rajnath was not treated with the seriousness that it deserved. The reaction of the government was kept at the diplomatic level where a director-general of the foreign ministry was asked to call the Indian deputy high commissioner to whom a diplomatic note was given as a protest. The vernacular newspapers reacted but, by and large, one did not see editorials or columns written on this item. At least one leading English daily totally overlooked the news. The worst part of the entire episode was to see the benign reaction from the political parties. Lip service reactions came from by the major political parties, with the Awami League reaction falling way short of public expectations. In fact, not unexpectedly, it was the Jamaat that arranged a public rally to protest the Rajnath statement. It is however important for Bangladesh to look into the Rajnath statement dispassionately. The main focus of the Rajnath statement was Pakistan. Bangladesh was added as an extension to his (and India’s) frustration with ever-growing terrorist attacks inside India which are actively aided by Pakistan. In fact, the BJP president went to add Nepal and Sri Lanka also to the list of South Asian countries that were becoming hub of terrorist activities together with Pakistan and Bangladesh. However, Rajnath was specific in stating that the Indian government should take the international community into confidence and attack Pakistan and Bangladesh to dismantle terrorist camps in the two countries. So in the Rajnath statement, there was a definite threat against Bangladesh’s sovereignty and therefore a very serious matter that should not have been allowed just to pass by with almost passive reaction. Before going to that, one need to see the events in Bangladesh in the context of Rajnath’s statement about Bangladesh becoming a hub of Islamic terrorism since the BNP-led government came to office. The policy of denials In Bangladesh, Rajnath’s outrageous statement notwithstanding, the activities of the Islamic militants have risen by leaps and bounds since the BNP came to power. These activities culminated with the 500 bomb blasts carried by the JMB and fellow terrorists on August 17th last year. A year has passed by and although the key leaders of the JMB terrorists have been incarcerated, the way they are being treated has raised more questions than they have answered about the real intentions of the government in dealing with the rising Islamic terrorism in the country. When the JMB started their operations in northern Bangladesh, they were actively aided by the government’s intelligence agencies and political leadership. The US Ambassador Harry Thomas made the issue a major one among his responsibilities as his country’s envoy to Bangladesh, urging and pleading the government to curb the rising trend. His pleas were dismissed by the government as a creation of the media and anti-Bangladesh elements. The media, the opposition political parties and the NGOs, with graphic details, placed before the government undeniable proof of the rising Islamic militancy in the country. They too were scorned as unpatriotic and anti-Bangladesh elements. While the government went into a state of denial with this issue, the militants were encouraged to openly carry out their activities. As a result, Bangladesh became clearly identified abroad as a country harbouring and assisting the rise of Islamic militancy. When Condoleezza Rice came on a visit to India last year, the rise of Islamic militancy in Bangladesh was an important agenda of her discussions with the government of India. During that visit, following the briefing given to her by the Indians, Rice stated whilst in India that after Afghanistan, Bangladesh was the next country to watch in the context of rising Islamic militancy. Salig S Harrison, an author with extensive experience in South Asian affairs, wrote a very critical article in the Washington Post’s issue of August 2nd in which he has chronicled the rise of Islamic militancy in Bangladesh under this government even naming a secretary in the Ministry of Home Affairs for actively assisting the Islamic militants for his alleged connections with them. The worries of India The developments in Bangladesh in the context of rising Islamic militancy have to be seen and related to the emergence of India as a global player. India today has aspirations for a permanent membership of the UN Security Council based on her fantastic economic development where it is now well set to emerge as a leading economic power of the world. It is also a nuclear power. The stakes for India are too high for her to feel comfortable with rising Islamic militancy inside Bangladesh which shares borders with India’s Seven Sisters where a number of separatist movements are active. Then there is the lingering suspicion in India about Bangladesh’s intelligence agencies’ connections with Pakistan‘s ISI. From the Indian point of view these are more than suspicions that they have communicated to the Bangladesh government over and over again that have been denied without convincing the Indians. These factors have created in the minds of the Indian government, their political parties and the public a feeling about the intentions of Bangladesh. There are two other factors here worth mentioning. The first goes back to Bangladesh’s war of liberation. The Indian view of Bangladesh’s liberation is that the country was liberated in 1971 as a result of India’s direct intervention in which many thousand Indian soldiers were killed. Thus the minimum that the Indians expect of Bangladesh is a country friendly towards her, particularly towards her security concerns. Second, in India, the opposition and the government fight each other tooth and nail on internal issues with the people likewise divided. However, on foreign policy and security issues the parties and the government seldom take opposing views. The people too almost always back their government on these issues. This is why on the Rajnath statement, the government of India has not spoken, Bangladesh’s protest note notwithstanding while in the press and media, his statement was well received. The ironies There was also an irony to Bangladesh’s reaction to the Rajnath statement. The most vociferous reaction came from the Jamaat, a party widely accused by the opposition political parties as one working actively against the country’s sovereignty. While the Jamaat organised a big rally to protest a genuine threat to the country’s sovereignty, the parties that claim as the patriotic forces allowed this threat to pass by. The foreign ministry that never lost any opportunity to attack India in the media in terms often undiplomatic on much lesser issues left the Rajnath statement to a diplomatic protest note and that too to be handled at a low level in the ministry. The lack of united approach Thus, while from the Indian side, the underlying message in Rajnath’s threat has been shared and supported by all shades of opinion there, in Bangladesh the threat has revealed the internal divisions in the country. Where there was a genuine reason for the country to have shown a united resolve and bipartisanship, unfortunately no such unity was witnessed. Even the media, normally quite alert on such issues, did not treat the implied threat in the BJP president’s statement appropriately. Bangladesh must look at the Rajnath statement and reflect upon the current international situation as well. After 9/11, the war against terrorism has become the critical issue of international politics. The concept of pre-emptive strike against countries and groups that support terrorism either actively or by default has become accepted despite protestations to the contrary. Bangladesh must therefore deal with the rising Islamic militancy better than the way she has so far. The BNP’s indulgence with the Islamic forces for electoral gains that has helped the growth of Islamic militancy in the country must end not by merely claiming in the media that Bangladesh is the only country to have arrested the kingpins of Islamic terrorism but by punishing those who have been arrested and revealing the names of those who have given them the encouragement to work right under the nose of the government for years till they were arrested, that too in dramatic fashions which was too good to believe. The government’s claims to the contrary, there are many in Bangladesh and abroad who are yet to be convinced that this government is sincere about dealing with the rise of Islamic militancy. Bangladesh needs to first put its own house in order and build up genuine bipartisanship over her relations with India for the country’s future, not just that of the BNP or the Awami League, are inextricably linked with her for, first, reasons of geopolitics and, second, the emerging realities of international politics. India’s unfriendly attitude and narrow mindedness are there that they have shown consistently in dealing with Bangladesh over a wide range of bilateral issues such as her water and territorial rights and trade issues. These rights and issues cannot be achieved the way Bangladesh has been dealing with India. The country must also look seriously into India’s interests such as her security concerns and her requests for land transit, use of her ports and purchase of gas and within those considerations develop an India Policy where the start must be by bringing all shades of political and public opinion in the country on board. The task is an immense one for at the moment the country does not have even the semblance of such a policy. The start to developing an India Policy could come from the country’s think tanks whose recommendations could then filter through the media to the government and the political parties who should put the nation’s interests ahead of political ones and help the country come up with an India Policy. The execution of that policy must invariably rest with the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs that has so far dealt with Bangladesh’s relations with India by way of reacting, without showing any pragmatic or professional approach. The BJP president’s remarks should wake up Bangladesh to these realities and the urgent need to develop an India Policy. The writer is a former ambassador of Bangladesh to Japan

Foreign policy of the BNP government: Lost Opportunities

Published in The New Age, August 5, 2005

Sadly, where potentials were immense to take the country forward by successful management of foreign policy, under the BNP-government, Bangladesh lost her international credibility as a liberal Muslim democracy and has instead become identified as a fundamentalist Muslim state, writes M Serajul Islam

The international situation presented the incumbent BNP-led government a good opportunity to establish Bangladesh as a Muslim-majority country with a liberal democracy. Success in establishing that credential would have gone a long way in improving Bangladesh’s image problem that has marginalised the country in the present international context. Bangladesh’s population of 145 million makes it the third largest Muslim country and among the 10 top-most populous nations of the world –– figures not to be taken lightly. Yet due to a combination of political and foreign policy failures, Bangladesh finds herself on the sidelines of international politics.

The aftermath of 9/11: BNP came to office shortly after 9/11, the event that dramatically altered most major parameters of international politics. Islam came at the centre stage for both right and wrong reasons. Nations tailored their foreign policies to adjust, accommodate or react to the event of the millennium. Bangladesh was presented with heaven-sent opportunities to benefit from the new realities in international politics as a liberal Islamic country. Bangladesh could have used her liberal Islamic traditions to fit into the changed scenario like hand into the glove. Further, the BNP had as its ally the Islamic parties, notably the Jamaat which placed it in a good position to tackle nascent Islamic terrorism. Also, the post of the secretary-general of the OIC came up for selection/election soon after the BNP came to power. A proper handling of the Jamaat, in turn Islamic fundamentalism, together with success in OIC would have won Bangladesh support of the developed nations as well as leadership of the Islamic world, making her position as a liberal Muslim country enviable among the developing nations of the world.

Failure to handle the Jamaat and the Islamists was a political failure and thus not a foreign policy matter although had that happened, the foreign policy managers would have had a good handle to work successfully in pursuing Bangladesh’s foreign policy goals.
The OIC debacle: The loss of the OIC election was however a foreign ministry failure. The post became almost Bangladesh’s in the year 2000 when then speaker and former foreign minister Humanyun Rashid Chowdhury was the candidate. The Saudis, whose influence in such matters is unquestioned, committed support to Chowdhury till at the last moment when the king of Morocco made a personal request to the king of Saudi Arabia to give then Moroccan incumbent OIC secretary general Larakki an extension. As the Saudis had extended Bangladesh support earlier, and as the request for Larakki was for one monarch to another that could not be declined, the Saudis requested Bangladesh to withdraw with the tacit understanding that they would unequivocally support Bangladesh in 2004.

With that background, the foreign ministry must have known too well how important it was for Bangladesh to win the secretary general’s post. In effect, however, the foreign ministry failed to bring home the crucial objective. The candidature of Salauddin Quader Chowdhury was a mistake because he did not have the credentials. Furthermore, his candidature ran into deep trouble in the country from the Awami League as was predictable. That gave the Saudis and others, who were favourably disposed towards Bangladesh in 2000, an excuse from actively supporting her candidature. The foreign ministry, instead of pointing out the weakness of the candidature, played along with it as it came from the office of the prime minister. Furthermore, the ministry, in the two years or so it ran the campaign, and spent crores for it, never either found out the lack of support for the candidate or having found it, deliberately fed the country wrong information about Bangladesh’s prospects. The foreign minister toured Turkey, who ultimately got the post, just two months before the OIC Summit that elected the secretary general and told the nation upon return that the post was as good as in Bangladesh’s pocket. On the eve of his departure for the summit, he told reporters at the airport that Bangladesh had commitment of 27 countries, just 2 votes short of an absolute majority. In contrast, Bangladesh lost the election poorly winning just 12 votes. Earlier, Malaysia approached Bangladesh to compromise in their favour, seeing that the Turkish candidate was surging ahead, and offered Bangladesh bilateral advantage that was scorned.

Thus Turkey, where the Islamists are in power, won the post handsomely while Bangladesh, where the Islamists just have a very minor share of power, lost badly and in the process, Bangladesh just not lost a post that has so much importance in the post 9/11 world, she also lost her natural advantage as a predominantly Muslim country with liberal democratic traditions which would have opened for the country a rich harvest of opportunities. The loss of the OIC post started Bangladesh’s slide in international politics under the BNP-led government.

India bashing: That slide became prominent in the region, particularly with India, Bangladesh’s most important neighbour and also with most of her development partners. With India, the BNP started on the wrong foot, taken deliberately and un-diplomatically. Any party in power in Delhi prefers the Awami League for reasons embedded in Bangladesh’s war of liberation. That notwithstanding, the BJP under then Indian prime minster Vajpayee had a different perspective of India’s neighbours with whom the prime minister was eager to mend fences. In that spirit, Vajpayee was the first international leader to congratulate Begum Zia on BNP’s election victory. That message was kept pending till a similar message from Pakistan was received. Then, Vajpayee proposed to send his most trusted aide, Brojesh Misra, to Bangladesh as his special envoy which too was not announced till Pakistan named her special envoy. That start sent India the wrong signal.

The foreign ministry thereafter handled Bangladesh’s relations with India by taking the cue from the political leadership. The diatribe by the foreign minister against India while speaking at the Enterprise Institute in presence of the Indian High Commissioner was an example of that approach. Then when India postponed participation in the 13th SAARC Summit, the foreign secretary matched his minister in criticising India in harsh and undiplomatic language.

It is true that India is not always a good neighbour and Bangladesh has reasons to be unhappy with her. That notwithstanding, the foreign policy managers of Bangladesh should not forget that India gave refuge to 10 million Bangladeshis in 1971 when the Pakistani army was killing Bangladeshis indiscriminately. Further, India sacrificed a large number of her troops in defeating Pakistan in 1971 that ended Pakistan’s occupation of Bangladesh. Finally, today India is a major player on the international stage and no matter what perception Bangladesh holds of India, the country must live with India and conduct relations with her with diplomatic and intellectual skills. Instead of acknowledging those realities and developing an India policy accordingly, the foreign ministry often preferred to deal with India through the media and chose India bashing in the media as a strategy where the foreign minister spared no opportunity to accuse India in the media in a manner that were best handled through diplomatic channels. The India bashing policy adopted by the foreign ministry helped to deteriorate Bangladesh-India relations to an all-time low.

The unprofessional approach taken by the foreign ministry also allowed other ministries of the government to deal with India by-passing the foreign ministry that often saw them contradicting one another. Consequently, the foreign ministry was unable to focus on the substantive issues in Bangladesh-India relations such as trade, transit, use of her ports and sale of gas, if she has the extra amount, to create for India a stake in Bangladesh. New developments also came into play of late vis-à-vis India such as India’s desire to become a permanent member of the UN security council and win the UN secretary-general’s post, aspirations that are taken seriously in view of India’s emergence as a major power in world politics. In conducting relations with India, the foreign ministry did not take most of the above realities into consideration and emphasised too much upon sovereign equality. The foreign ministry sometimes worked against those interests, and also consciously or unconsciously helped emphasise a preconceived notion held politically that India is out to harm Bangladesh’s sovereignty for pleasing the political leadership. The foreign ministry thus failed to provide the proper direction for a professional approach to Bangladesh-India relations.

Development partners: Bangladesh’s relations with her development partners have also shown little improvement. The United States became too busy with the war on terror. Bangladesh did not matter to them in that context as she was not involved directly or indirectly with major international terrorist groups. The US did express concern from time to time with the government’s over-indulgence to home-grown Islamic terrorists that were not taken seriously till under secretary for Asia Rocco came in Dhaka in January this year and delivered a stern message which, many speculate, led to the arrests of Bangla Bhai and his associates. The former US ambassador Harry Thomas’ frequent calls earlier for action against the Islamists in Bangladesh, though not in conformity with diplomatic practices, were dismissed by the government summarily.

The rise of corruption and poor governance also resulted in the Tuesday Club, an informal gathering of ambassadors/high commissioners of development partners, to be openly critical of the government. The foreign ministry handled the Club poorly. Instead of using tact and finesse, the foreign minister openly accused the Club of trade unionism. Unlike Bangladesh, other countries let ambassadors play a crucial role in development of bilateral relations. An ambassador’s recommendation is sought and almost always taken in every matter of bilateral importance. The foreign ministry’s failure to deal effectively with the Club together with poor governance, corruption and rising Islamic militancy contributed to marginalise Bangladesh bilaterally with most of her development partners, as feedback they received from their envoys in Dhaka were critical of the government. True, they have not gone out of the way to show that in a major way by reducing for example aid cooperation, the main platform of bilateral relations with them. Nevertheless the warmth of relations has not been there at all.

With Japan and China, too, the government’s handling of relations have been poor. China has still not forgiven Bangladesh for opening of Taiwan trade office in Dhaka without consulting with her. The foreign ministry was intriguingly superseded by the board of investment in taking the initiative. The timing of the decision was poor as it came right before the Taiwanese elections. It is true that within the One China Policy, most countries have trade and commercial relations with Taiwan. China itself does so. However, the lure of investment and trade weighed heavily in prompting Bangladesh to let Taiwan open its trade office. Important as those lures were, they cannot be reasons to annoy China which is on course to become the next superpower.

Japan is Bangladesh’s most important development partner and provides loan and grant of US$ 300 million approximately annually. The loan portion is also later turned into grant. Two years ago, Japan wrote off US1.46 billion of loans. As the next possible member of the UN security council, Japan’s importance to Bangladesh cannot be over exaggerated. Yet, the government chose to cancel a project called DAP 11 with Japan soon after coming to office, overtly because it was not economically viable but covertly, because it was signed under the AL regime. Japan was deeply offended with this unilateral cancellation. They insisted that DAP 11 must be reactivated. The Japanese argued that a change of office between the two parties cannot be an excuse for a breach of international contract. They also dismissed the economic argument. DAP 11 was eventually reactivated after 2 precious years were lost and Bangladesh’s credibility questioned by Japan. Ironically, DAP 11 is now proving economically viable. The foreign ministry, which should have known the consequences of offending Japan too well, allowed the ministry of industries to take over the conduct of bilateral relations on this crucial issue and only when the PMO heard the alarm bells, DAP 11 was reactivated. It is to Japan’s professional approach to diplomacy that once the DAP 11 was reactivated, they went about business as usual, invited Khaleda Zia to Japan on an official visit that was very successful. Japan increased its Yen loans to Bangladesh from US$ 100 to US 200 million a year from January this year. The recent visit of the Japanese foreign minister to Dhaka also bears testimony to expanding Bangladesh-Japan relations.

Loss of credibility: Sadly, where potentials were immense to take the country forward by successful management of foreign policy, under the BNP-government, Bangladesh lost her international credibility as a liberal Muslim democracy and has instead become identified as a fundamentalist Muslim state. Bangladesh also ran into trouble with all her development partners on the issues of poor governance, corruption and failure to tackle home-grown Islamists. With India, relations have never been as low as under this regime. Bangladesh also lost her leadership of the LDC group in multilateral negotiations and she witnessed Malaysia make much good use of the chairmanship of NAM that she declined to accept after being offered while the AL was in power.

True, the long list of failures in foreign policy are not all entirely failures of the foreign ministry for political leadership also contributed. Yet, the foreign ministry must share the major responsibility for it did not properly guide the political leadership in responding diplomatically to the concerns of the international community to such issues as corruption, governance and terrorism. Rather, the foreign ministry handled the issues through denial, conflict and to put it mildly, un-diplomatically. The foreign policy of this government has been reactive and that too in the negative sense.

The writer is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to Japan

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