The Prime Minister's Office: A Critical reform Area

Published in The Daily Star, May 31, 2008

THESE days we are talking of reforms in governance and institutions of governance and very rightly so. We hear of reform of the Public Service Commission, the Election Commission, Police administration, etc. Yet one office at the nerve centre of governance that attained a great deal of notoriety under elected governments and added significantly to the deterioration of governance, the Prime Minister's Office, or the PMO, has so far escaped attention. To bring the point home, this is what happened to the top PMO officials under Khaleda Zia's premiership. She sent her own secretary to jail. At present her principal secretary is accused for corruption; another secretary is in jail for corruption; one of her political advisers is also in jail while another has been convicted and at present a fugitive from justice.

A friend, former officer of the Pakistan Foreign Service cadre, was cleared for promotion to the rank of a Grade B Ambassador/Additional Secretary in 2003 by the SSB chaired by the cabinet secretary. Just after the conclusion of the meeting, a phone call came from a PMO official asking the cabinet secretary not to proceed with the promotions. The case was stuck for the next 3 months. When it was cleared, my friend had retired! Scores of such promotion cases duly cleared by SSB and sent routinely to the PMO for signature were by-passed by low functionaries at the PMO for political reasons. Under the last BNP Government, a political adviser with his staff ran a parallel office at the PMO as an extension of the party office or the 'Hawa Bhavan' often rendering the principal secretary and PMO officers innocuous and silent spectators. We have read in newspaper reports about the principal secretary and a private secretary to a political adviser “fighting” over the latter's alleged corruption but unable to take action against this gentleman for his political linkage. The charge against this official was that he had acquired property illegally at Gulshan worth crores of taka.

The PMO was established in 1991 when Bangladesh adopted the parliamentary system. It replaced the President's Office where two Presidents with military background had created a very powerful secretariat. It was expected that with change of system, the PMO would lose a lot of power with Ministers sharing executive authority with the Prime Minister. That did not happen because the Prime Minister assumed almost all the powers of the President, helped by the failure of the Parliament to evolve as a meaningful branch of Government. Also, unlike other parliamentary governments, Article 55 (2) of Bangladesh Constitution stated that “the executive power of the Republic shall, in accordance with this Constitution, be exercised by or on the authority of the Prime Minister “that in effect made the system Prime Ministerial instead of a truly parliamentary one where the Prime Minister is ”the first among equals”.

The Prime Minister's dominance was reflected in an un-healthy manner in the way the PMO became a government within the government, to the exclusion of the rest of the government. The Rules of Business and Allocations of Business were suitably amended to legalize the dominance that ran contrary to the parliamentary system and kept the ministers from playing their role in governance. Ministers were vying for attention of not the Prime Minister but bureaucrats at the PMO and were busy building their “power base” by closeness with those bureaucrats who found key posts at the PMO for political reasons as the elected governments politicized it.

In a parliamentary system, political parties play a crucial role in getting a government elected. However, once it is chosen, they are not expected to have any role in governance for once in government; the party in power has to appeal to the nation that has to include everybody, including the supporters of those it has defeated in the elections. In Bangladesh, this did not happen and the parties even when in power seldom overcame narrow party interests to appeal to the broader national constituency. Thus bipartisanship and consensus around national issues never evolved in our politics. At the PMO this play of narrow party interests over broader national interests was played out in the worst ways imaginable. Party officials were brought into governance as political advisers and given offices at the PMO to perform functions “relating to Political Affairs” as entrusted by the Allocations of Business. Career bureaucrats were brought to the PMO on political considerations rather than on merit. Between the political advisers and the bureaucrats, it was just not the PMO that was politicized; together they spread the virus to the entire administration. In the last BNP era, the political advisers with the politicized bureaucrats helped the party take over the PMO and through the PMO, the entire government. Ministers were spending more time to get attention of one political adviser in particular and the “political” bureaucrats there who worked as the party's men at the PMO. The Prime Minister's son at the party office or the Hawa Bhavan encouraged the nexus and the PMO became the front for the party. This nexus became the real power at the PMO leading the ministers to seek the attention of this political adviser more than her secretariat staff including the principal secretary because the blessings of Hawa Bhavan decided most crucial issues of governance. During the last BNP government, a private secretary was the PM's nephew that helped him gain influence way out of proportion to what he deserved and helped in the PMO to evolve as an obstacle to good governance.

During the AL Government, when the PMO had not fallen to such low depths, a senior retired CSP officer who was entrusted to review the administration had called for dismantling it. In a BBC talk show a few years ago, the editor of TDS had said something extremely valuable. While acknowledging that Bangladesh had made good strides towards democracy he felt that for further evolution down the road of democracy Bangladesh would have to find ways to make the Prime Minister accountable in between the elections. That would need a lot of things falling into place, like making the parliament truly functional. If we are seeking to restrain our Prime Ministers from assuming dictatorial powers, as they have done, we could also look into whether we can amend Article 55 (2) of the Constitution and re-invest executive powers in the cabinet. Those issues notwithstanding, the reform of the PMO has become essential and critical for achieving good governance of future elected governments.

The reform of the PMO must start by addressing a major issue, drawing a line between the party and the government. The Prime Minister's role as party leader and his/her need to lead it is undoubtedly very important. But that function must be performed at the party office and not at the PMO. ROB should then be amended and the PMO should be relieved from its role in dealing with political affairs. That would not allow the political advisers to sit at the PMO and free it from party interference. The provisions under schedule V of the Allocations of Business that sets aside cases that ministries must refer to the Prime Minister should also be trimmed so as not to burden the PMO with cases that are routine. As an example, cases of promotion of Deputy Secretary should not be referred by the Establishment Division to the PMO. In trimming schedule V, the spirit should be to free the Prime Minister to concentrate on more serious affairs of the state at the policy level and correspondingly allow the Ministers to play their proper role in governance. The personnel at the PMO must be chosen strictly on merit and the chain of command there under the principal secretary should not be broken by outside interference. On the conflict of interest issue, no close relative of future PMs should be appointed to any post at the PMO.

The most important objective of reform of the PMO must be to free it from political interference and bring professionalism to it. Towards the end of the BNP Government, public confidence in government was all but shattered because of the unholy nexus between the PMO and the Hawa Bhavan. That nexus should not be allowed in the next elected government. The reforms would create that environment but whether the nexus would not be repeated would depend to a large extent upon the next Prime Minister who we hope would come reformed as a consequence of developments in our politics since 1/11. While the PM's choice would be made by the election, the principal secretary would be selected. That selection should be made with great care keeping in mind that he would be the individual on whose personality and leadership qualities a reformed and professional PMO would like to make a new beginning where it would be the cause of removal of people's sufferings instead of being the cause of it.

Bangladesh's potentials are immense; we are the envy of our neighbours because of our history and our homogeneity. Yet we are languishing, hovering between hopes and despair because we have failed to establish bipartisanship in our politics. The PMO is not a party office, and by re-establishing that through the reforms suggested, Bangladesh could make a long awaited start towards bipartisan politics whose impact on the country could be the beginning of the realization of the dreams for which we had established Bangladesh through immense sacrifices.

Our foreign policy and the foreign ministry

Published in The Daily Star, May 17, 2008

RETIRED Ambassadors were unanimous on two issues in a Round Table (RT) organized by The Daily Star (TDS) and the Centre for Foreign Affairs Studies (CFAS) recently. First, foreign policy is not important in governance in Bangladesh. Second, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of Bangladesh is “the weakest in the world”. It is not that these apprehensions are new. People informed on these issues have known these for a long time.

What is new and important is that this RT has brought foreign policy and the MFA into focus at a time when it is in our national interest to do so. Since the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, international relations are being rewritten faster than most nations can keep pace. Globalization and 9/11 have added new dimensions in international politics that nations have to adapt on a continuous basis for furthering national interests, making successful conduct of foreign policy crucial to all Governments. As a consequence of it all, Foreign Ministries all over the world have gained more power and influence. The TDS-CFAS RT in this context is a timely warning that Bangladesh is harming its own national interests by going against the trend.

It is a pity that we find ourselves in this situation today. We were liberated by blood in 1971 at a time when international law did not favour liberation by exercise of the right of self-determination. It was sheer merit of our cause, heroism of our people and the genocide of the Pakistani Army that swept world opinion in our favour when such was not the case in similar efforts in Sri Lanka and Nigeria where the Biafran struggle dissipated. Immediately after our liberation, it was because of our successful foreign policy that we swiftly became members of the UN, OIC and other world bodies, and established bilateral relations with most of the countries of the world. The MFA successfully charted the course for the nation that allowed Bangladesh safe landing and acceptance in the committee of nations. By 1979, we won a seat at the UN Security Council defeating Japan. In 1981, we came close to becoming the President of the UN General Assembly, a position we lost to Iraq by a coin toss after a tie on the votes cast.

By the time President Ershad usurped power, foreign policy and MFA were on the decline. One major reason for this is interesting; in the period immediately after liberation, when foreign policy was important, MFA officials led by the ex-Pakistan Foreign Service (PFS) officers were enjoying both recognition and prominence. The elite members of the ex-Civil Service of Pakistan (CSP) were at that time in particular threat from the politicians. Some of the senior members of this service made an informal proposal to the ex-PFS officers in the MFA to form a Foreign Service Cadre together that was snubbed by the latter on the principle of inter seniority. That was a mistake for by the time Ershad came, these ex-CSP officers were very powerful. In fact, some senior ex-CSP officers helped Ershad overthrow the elected Government of Justice Sattar and became very close to him. Ershad disliked the Foreign Service that these ex-CSP officers used to full measure. They systematically destroyed the MFA, dividing the entire gamut of foreign relations into diplomatic, aid, trade, consular and other components, and distributing all except the diplomatic to a number of Ministries, Division and agencies and incorporated the changes into the Rules of Business.

The MFA and foreign policy had thus been relegated to the backseat by the time Ershad fell. Elected Governments that returned in 1991 carried forward the trend although our national interests required greater attention and importance to foreign policy to adjust to the new and emerging realities of a post Cold War world. While other countries strengthened their Foreign Ministry to meet new challenges that also opened new opportunities, we weakened it. We just did not allow foreign affairs to be shared by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs together with a number of other Ministries; no effort was made to set up any mechanism for coordination. As one retired Ambassador commented at the TDS-CFAS RT, our foreign policy had become a hydra-headed creature without focus. Those in charge were happy to weaken the MFA and did not care or consider they were harming our national interests.

MFA under elected Governments thus was captain of a ship where its crews owed it no loyalty. It was therefore only logical that during this period we really had no foreign policy but a series of reactions to situations, mostly initiated at the instruction of the Prime Minister's Office. In the Missions, Ambassadors were as helpless as MFA in the country. As Ambassador to Japan, I was picking a lot of information from newspapers that I read on the internet on what the ERD or other economic Ministries were doing with Japan so as not to be embarrassed with the host Government as it was seldom that these Ministries kept me informed on developments. Left without substance in formulating and implementing foreign policy, MFA came up with high sounding policies like Economic Diplomacy during the AL tenure from 1996-2001; the so called Look East policy of the BNP Government and now the Ten Points Policy of the Caretaker Government. These policies have no concept papers. They have not been formulated through consultations with stakeholders and just been drawn out of the hat! To complicate matters, MFA often tried to first guess the mind of the Prime Minister and important officials at the PMO to deal with foreign policy issues. As Foreign Minister, Morshed Khan was aware that the Prime Minister had reservation about India. Instead of attempting to remove these reservations, he built upon it to be on her right side. In a now well-known tirade, he humiliated India at a Seminar in 2004 in unbelievable language to win the PM's attention. It is therefore no wonder that while India is for geopolitical and other reasons our most important neighbor; we do not have an India policy. In fact, substantive matters with India are not dealt by the MFA and often Ministries who deal with these issues, keep the MFA in darkness! We have not demarcated our maritime boundary with India. We have failed to uphold our best interests in multilateral economic negotiations where our performance at WTO negotiations, led by the Commerce Ministry, was so miserable that we were officially extended support by the UN to develop the negotiating skills of those who represent us there, skills available to MFA officers but not used. The sum total of neglect to foreign affairs and weakening the MFA has marginalized Bangladesh. We have no articulated and coordinated policy on issues as critical as climate change and global warming, on our interests in the WTO, on how to deal with India, etc.

The MFA, sadly, has helped this process rather than stand against it. Those in leadership role in the Ministry opted for their personal interests, like promotions and postings instead of opposing the efforts of those in power to relegate foreign affairs into the back drawer and make MFA weak. They allowed influx of army officers whose seniority destroyed the morale of the directly recruited officers. They also failed to oppose for fear of upsetting the Prime Minister and the PMO, wrong decisions taken at the latter's behest like the NAM Chairmanship in 1998 and Salauddin Qader Chowdhury's nomination for the OIC Secretary General's post in 2004 which given to any other candidate of MFA's choice could have won Bangladesh the post.

The need now is to reverse this process and allow the MFA to play a major role in formulating and implementing the country's foreign policy for the sake of Bangladesh. This is the trend worldwide and therefore is nothing new. An example of how MFA functions elsewhere was given at the TDS-CFAS RT. One Ambassador who was High Commissioner in India said at the RT that after he and the then Indian Finance Minister had fixed the latter's visit to Dhaka, the Finance Minister called the High Commissioner to inform him that he was embarrassed to cancel the visit because the Joint Secretary of the Bangladesh Division at the Indian External Affairs Ministry thought the dates were not suitable. Another retired Ambassador gave the example of Brazil where their MFA is the government within the government, a trend that most nations are now following in one degree or another.

It is simply our national interest that requires functions of aid, external trade and expatriate welfare to be given to the MFA together with the coordinating role for foreign policy related functions now being handled by other Ministries. The former NBR Chairman Badiur Raman made a very good case of this by stating in a talk show that with less than one digit dependence on foreign aid in our development needs, it is a disgrace that we have a Division called the ERD. In arguing the case of the Foreign Ministry, it may help us to bear in mind that in implementing foreign policy, diplomacy is of essence. Diplomacy is a specialized profession; the longer time one spends in this profession, the better that individual gets and the better that individual serves the country. The diplomatic cadre in Bangladesh works under the MFA. By bringing foreign policy related functions to the MFA, the country will have professionals dealing with such matters. Why would we do otherwise?

The Foreign Ministry has deteriorated over the years of neglect in its cadre potentials. To take the extra functions, the diplomatic cadre must be expanded by inducting officers from other Ministries and also from the private sector. Efforts must be made to attract people with special qualifications. Our expats in developed countries could be a potential source. Training, specialization and language skills must be made the key elements of the expanded Foreign Service cadre. Within these parameters, we should pursue clearly set out foreign policy goals that are achievable.

The biggest challenge to evolving a foreign policy of Bangladesh to serve the best interests of the country will be to successfully bring the stakeholders such as the political parties, business groups, and civil societies into the loop in the process of formulation of foreign policy. Once Parliament is in place, the Parliamentary Committee for Foreign Affairs should be given a major role in foreign policy formulation where bipartisanship of political parties in approaching foreign policy issues should be made indispensible. Finally, under the elected Government, the country must have a Foreign Minister with background and qualifications for the job that we did not have in the 15 years of elected Government for which the country has suffered. The icing on the cake must come from the Prime Minister who must be the country's number one diplomat by taking a proactive and knowledge based interest in foreign policy for which the bureaucratic walls that the PMO has created in the last 15 years should fall in favour of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Responsibility of Diplomats in Host Country

Published in The Daily Star, April 4, 2008

Article 41 paragraph 1 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations states in unequivocal terms: "Without prejudice to their privileges and immunities, it is the duty of all persons enjoying such privileges and immunities to respect the laws and regulations of the receiving state. They also have a duty not to interfere in the internal affairs of that state." The paragraph does not lend itself to any confusion or conflict in interpretation, and it is respected in every world capital except Dhaka, unfortunately.

I spent 30 years as a diplomat, and I never saw this Article violated anywhere as it is in Bangladesh. Diplomats are privileged, and the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations exempts them from legal action, taxation, and a host of other things in the host country, but restricts them unequivocally, by the provisions of Article 41 paragraph 1, from interfering in the internal affairs of the host country.

The charge-de-affaires (CDA) of a country recently met with the AL and BNP top leadership to discuss the election roadmap under the full glare of the media. A number of ambassadors of western countries in Dhaka have been discussing about our internal affairs for quite some time now. During the BNP regime, people gathered a lot of information about inside developments in our politics from these ambassadors' regular media appearances. Their indulgence came to such a head that then foreign minister tried to resolve it because of the embarrassment it was causing the government. Unfortunately, Foreign Minister Morshed Khan went about this in an unprofessional manner, calling the ambassadors "trade unionists," and that too in the media, which further complicated the matter.

Instead of stopping, the ambassadors did the opposite, which encouraged the opponents of the BNP and a large section of the media who failed to see the diplomatic violations but not the embarrassment it was causing the BNP government. The emergence of a good number of private TV channels after 2001 encouraged these diplomats to talk openly and freely.

The role of a high commissioner is a case in point. In the last 4 years he has represented his country in Bangladesh, his "public" posture has been interesting. There is not one domestic issue upon which he has not cared to comment publicly; on our governance, elections, corruption etc.

Bangladesh's politics is far from perfect. We also depend a great deal upon economic aid from our development partners. This relationship sometimes forces us to accept conditions on how we spend their assistance, as well as on issues of governance, because some countries such as the UK tie their assistance to good governance. Ambassadors use this aid issue to express their views on our internal affairs.

These actions of the ambassadors and their missions often also benefit us. However, when ambassadors use the media for conducting such actions where the government is criticised and embarrassed openly, the whole issue turns indecent and bizarre. It is not just that these actions conflict with the Article 43 Paragraph 1 and embarrass the government, they end up humiliating and embarrassing the people of the country.

In 2000, I watched the Egyptian election very closely, where President Mubarak won with over 90% votes, with the opposition almost totally gagged. I did not find any ambassador, US and the British included, giving any critical opinion on that election, other than perhaps in their secret dispatches to their governments or discreet meetings with Egyptian officials, or in very private conversation. We don't see any ambassadors of these countries criticising the governments in the glare of the media as they do in Bangladesh.

Constructive criticism from ambassadors of friendly countries is not, per se, a bad thing. But then, such criticism must be communicated in confidence. No country that has pride, the Vienna Convention notwithstanding, will accept ambassadors so freely criticising its politics or governance before the media as these diplomats do in our country. By these violations, we as a nation are being humiliated without achieving anything positive, because the problems remain where they are. In fact, without realising, these diplomats just complicate the problems further.

There is no doubt that these diplomats are also aware of the Vienna Convention. Why then do they violate this Convention? I was given an insight into this when I was recently discussing this issue with three senior editors. One of them said that it was our politicians who were to be blamed for the way diplomats behaved. When an opposition political party is unable to make the party in power listen to their fair demands, they find the latter receptive only when they get the diplomats from western missions on their side. Another editor told me that the CDA of a country met with the AL and the BNP because of frantic calls from both the parties to meet her to get the US on their side for their current political agenda..

The Foreign Ministry must step in and tell the diplomats firmly that the Government of Bangladesh wants them to adhere strictly to article 41 of the Vienna Convention. Simultaneously, ministries/departments of the government must be careful about meeting ambassadors and high commissioners. I do not see any reason why the ACC chief or the CEC should be meeting with them, unless the latter have issues related to aid and assistance to discuss with them.

The media has a very important role to play here. Unfortunately, despite the fact that we have such a vibrant media, it lacks maturity in diplomatic reporting and has little knowledge of diplomatic nuances and practices. They seek out ambassadors and high commissioners like media personalities, and ask them questions that have no relevance at all to the task for which their countries have sent them here. The media should keep in mind that the diplomats cannot have any public opinion about our internal affairs, and it is just not the right thing to ask them such questions. If they want to speak on our internal affairs, these reporters should remind them the relevant article of the Vienna Convention instead.

The political parties have a bigger role to play. They know more than anyone else that by discussing the country's internal affairs with foreign ambassadors and high commissioners, they are humiliating the country to take political advantage against their opponents, advantage that ultimately does not even materialise. It is not just that they are humiliating their own country; they are also humiliating themselves.

People outside Bangladesh will find it hard to believe that the top political leaders of Bangladesh's two major political parties have held meetings with the CDA of a particular country to discuss the country's election roadmap in the glare of the print and electronic media. The political parties must stop this immediately, for their own sake and for the sake of the country's pride. They can interact with these diplomats, but they should do so outside the glare of the media and be discreet about these interactions.

The diplomats who are violating the Vienna Convention have the ultimate responsibility of putting things in order here. Diplomats must realise that their more than frequent press and media appearances and meetings with host government officials and politicians on issues of the country's internal affairs and politics give rise to beliefs and perceptions in the public mind that are incorrect, and could even adversely affect their bilateral relations with Bangladesh while in no way helping to improve our politics or governance. They should also realise that no other capital would allow such violation of the Vienna Convention.

Diplomacy is an art that bears the best fruit when conducted with discretion and outside media glare. It can, as it is doing in Bangladesh, spoil good intent when conducted in the press and media. The bottom line, Vienna Convention and all the rest notwithstanding, is that diplomats in Bangladesh should keep their views about our internal affairs to themselves, and if their good intentions get the better of them they should convey these views discreetly to their hosts.

National Security Council for Bangladesh

Published in The Daily Star, March 5, 2008

A US National Security Council in session

I once sat in a high profile meeting when the country had an elected government as a Director General in the Foreign Ministry. Those who attended that meeting were the Ministers of Foreign and Home Affairs with their respective Secretary and top level representatives of civil and military intelligence. Security issues were on top of the agenda of that meeting. I was astonished to learn at that meeting that on crucial national security issues, the Foreign Minister was in total darkness and that intelligence available to the military was unknown to the civil intelligence. At the Home Ministry, what the Secretary knew was not in his Minister's knowledge. Since that strange meeting, I always felt Bangladesh needed a National Security Council for a professional and transparent way to deal with national security and intelligence issues that are vital for formulating the country's foreign and defense policies.

A National Security Council or its equivalent is now an essential part of governments of most countries. It has become indispensable for professionally integrating intelligence and security issues into well considered foreign and defense policies for maintaining sovereignty and furthering national interests in an increasingly globalized world. It has been an integral part of Government in the United States since it was set up under the Presidency of President Harry Truman. In India, it was set up in 1998 when the BJP Government was in office. National Security Council of Pakistan in its current version was created in April 2004 by an Act.

Historically, National Security Council has followed a perceptible pattern in evolution. Countries with strong democratic foundations have evolved one type of NSC while a country where the presence of the military is strong has evolved a different type. The United States and India are good examples of the first type where the military and intelligence agencies are given a place in the NSC in advisory roles. Turkey is an example of the second type where its NSC called the Milli Guvenlik Kurulu has institutionalized Turkish military's dominance and influence over politics.

A NSC for Bangladesh is not a new idea. A circular was issued by the Cabinet Division in 1996 creating a 23 member NSC headed by the Prime Minister. It was given a wide range of responsibilities ranging from ensuring national security to accountability of the Government as well as dealing with internal problems tied to security. But the concept was stillborn and fizzled till this Government came to office. Going by what one reads in the newspapers, a NSC for Bangladesh seems imminent with a few suggesting that it will be in place as early as end of May.

Not everybody is of course excited that a NSC is imminent for Bangladesh. A great deal of doubt has arisen within the public as the concept has not been debated at any length by this Government. In the absence of the parliament, there is also no forum to debate this issue in a manner that can take all concerns on board. A few seminars by think tanks have attempted to debate the issue. Unfortunately, these seminars have added more doubt in the public mind. In one well-publicized seminar held recently, a sponsor went to the extent of stating to the media that a NSC should be constituted immediately in order to allow the country to benefit from all the positive developments that this Government has achieved after 1/11. His statement left no one in doubt that he was suggesting that unless the military is given a major role through the NSC, democracy would be in peril when an elected Government comes.

Therefore, in establishing a NSC in Bangladesh, a few issues must be settled first for such a Council not to be again stillborn like the attempt in 1996. Before it is delivered, it must be absolutely clear to the public that a NSC is not a civil versus military issue and that it is not a covert way of bringing the military into politics. It must also be made absolutely clear that, the mess into which the politicians have landed the country notwithstanding, the supremacy of elected representatives over un-elected ones is an undeniable fact in dealing with issues of sovereignty, security and intelligence. At the same time, a NSC should act as a reminder to elected representatives that they cannot put national interests and sovereignty into jeopardy by internal conflicts. Given our ethos as a nation where we perhaps stand uniquely on our own for sacrifices for establishing democracy, we should therefore chose as a model the US type of NSC with modifications to suit our needs (we need not have a very complex one as the US NSC is) while be careful in not going after the Turkish model that give too much prominence to the military.

A NSC for Bangladesh should be a two-tiered body. The apex tier should be headed by the Prime Minister. This body should meet at regular intervals to consider issues/papers/documents prepared by the second tier and give policy decisions on issues of national security. In addition to considering national security and intelligence issues that have direct relation to sovereignty or threat to it arising from external sources, the NSC should also be entrusted with internal crisis management that threatens sovereignty. The apex tier should in addition to the Prime Minister, have as members the Leader of the Opposition, Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Home Affairs, and Defense (why should the Prime Minister hold this portfolio? Is politics involved here?), the Chief of the Army (in place of a Joint Chief of Staff that we do not have in Bangladesh) and the Cabinet Secretary. Chiefs of civil and military intelligence should sit in NSC meetings as advisors. The second tier should comprise bureaucrats from the Ministry of Home Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Defense, Army, Navy and Air Force, the civil and military intelligence agencies, the Police and BDR. In developing such a NSC, the task of coordination and smooth flow of intelligence and information between the military, security and civilians in the second tier should be given utmost importance. A post of a National Security Adviser (NSA) should be created directly under the Prime Minister for this purpose. The NSA should be a very senior retired diplomat or an armed forces officer who should carry the rank of a Minister. In a Government structure already too bloated for reasons of rationality, the NSA could use bureaucrats at the Prime Minister's Office where a Director General with requisite number of officials could provide the NSA administrative support. Issues of national security and intelligence are matters that, despite the need for transparency, cannot be made public knowledge.

Then again, the NSC must not use such a necessity to become an extra-constitutional body. It must be accountable to the Parliament through the Prime Minister.

The inclusion of the Leader of the Opposition should allow bipartisanship in dealing with crucial national issues, something sadly lacking in our system of governance.

The military and intelligence agencies have always been dealing with security and intelligence issues keeping those in charge constitutionally to deal with such issues in darkness in the absence of an established procedure or structure. The BNP and the AL Governments allowed the military and intelligence agencies de facto veto power in security and intelligence issues in manner that was non-transparent and did not always serve the best interest of the nation. A NSC will allow a professional and transparent way of cooperation between the civil, military and intelligence agencies and integration of national security and intelligence issues into defense and foreign policies in the best interest of the country.

The necessity of a NSC cannot be over-emphasized. At the same time, it may not be wise to hurry in through because doubts have arisen in the public mind caused, no doubt, by some over enthusiastic people. Recently, Justice Habibur Rahman, former Chief Adviser, said in a seminar that military's interference in politics cannot benefit the country; his statement created substantial vibes in the public mind. Some politicians have also spoken publicly that the armed forces are seeking a safe exit for themselves given the fact that they have upset the politicians by their drive against widespread corruption in politics and governance. The Army Chief's most recent meeting with senior editors where he has cleared these misgivings categorically is very encouraging. Still doubts linger. Therefore, the imperative of a NSC for Bangladesh notwithstanding, it may be wise for this Government to draw the concept paper of a well thought out NSC and leave it to the elected Government to deliver it as an integral part of executive branch of the Government under the wings of the Prime Minister.

Foreign policy of Bangladesh: Author's Note

Foreign policy is increasingly becoming more and more crucial for a country's development as traditional national boundaries fall all around us under the pressure of globalization. In all countries, foreign policy formulation and its implementation are given extremely serious consideration and dealt with professionalism that is constantly being reviewed for higher standard. In Bangladesh , unfortunately we have not treated foreign affairs with the seriousness that it deserves and implementation mechanism makes our foreign policy handling anything but professional where the Foreign Ministry competes with a number of other Ministries/agencies in an environment that is not always cooperative.

Apart from the institutional weaknesses involved on the Government side, Bangladesh also suffers from the lack of organizations in the private sector that deal with foreign policy issues and render assistance to the Government in articulating the foreign policy issues in a coherent manner where all stake holders are brought into the equation. In any world capital, there are are many such organizations or think tanks. In Dhaka, only recently the Centre for Foreign Affairs Studies (CFAS) was created with the objective to fill this void.

In Dhaka at this point in time, there are a very large number of retired professional Ambassadors who have spent years in the area of formulation and implementation of Bangladesh's foreign policy. But there is no mechanism or little at the moment to bring their experiences into the loop. CFAS , in which I am a Director, has been envisaged to do this. This blog , an experimental one, has been designed to encourage others with background similar to mine to do so , so that we can together create a broad forum for exchange of thoughts and ideas with the intention to help the Government in the professional formulation and implementation of Bangladesh's foreign policy.

My blog is interactive, I would welcome readers' views on articles that I have posted and would post in future. Depending on what interest this blog creates, I have an intention to welcome issues from the readers for discussion on this blog site.

Should Dr Yunus enter politics?

Published in The New Age, October 22, 2006

The mainstream political parties, by their destructive politics, have set the stage for a third force that the people have been expectantly talking about for quite sometime now. Who else can be better than Dr Yunus as that third force? asks M Serajul Islam

After nearly a week of celebrations following Dr Yunus and Grameen Bank’s Nobel Prize winning feat, that has resonated in the hearts of all Bangladeshis the same spirit that brought them together in 1971, an element of controversy has been introduced when the Nobel laureate told newsmen before leaving Dhaka on an overseas trip to South Korea and Japan on the 18th of October that he is thinking about forming a political party. The news has taken the people by surprise, bringing hopes in their hearts while the politicians have reacted sharply, some with very critical views while the civil society has stayed in between, advising Dr Yunus to remain above politics and use his stature to influence politics.

Dr Yunus won the Nobel Prize at a very critical moment for the country. An air of deep despondency grips the public mind, created by the deep impasse into which the two mainstream political parties have pushed the country. While the BNP and the AL had started negotiating a settlement before October 13th, the stand taken by the by the prime minister and Sheikh Hasina had not initially held out much hope that a settlement was near. The general feeling in the public mind was the country was fast moving towards a serious confrontation and civil disorder. After Dr Yunus won the Nobel Prize, there has been a spontaneous mood shift and the people now feel that the impact of the Prize would be positive upon politics and a confrontation would be avoided.

Initially, the speculation in public mind has been that Dr Yunus would be chief adviser of the next caretaker government and use that position to hold a free and fair election to move the country away from the path of doom set by the politicians. They were encouraged to think that way because the BNP and the AL were giving optimistic signs of a settlement, no doubt under pressure of the Prize. Dr Yunus himself dispelled that speculation, aware that the main problem in our politics cannot not be resolved merely by holding a free and fair election but by getting honest and competent individuals to contest in the elections. Without such individuals in politics, the Nobel Laureate felt that even after a free and fair election, the politics of confrontation and corruption would again dominate when the new government assumed office. The latest round of uncompromising statements coming from top leadership of the BNP and the AL no doubt proves Dr Yunus right about bringing a qualitative change in the character of politicians.

Those who have followed Dr Yunus and his works closely and know him well were therefore not surprised by the Nobel laureate’s nonchalant response on October 18th at Dhaka Airport to newsmen who reminded him that it would not be possible to bring honest and competent individuals to contest in the elections unless they are part of the political process. Dr Yunus gave them a very simple answer that if is what is required, he would form a political party to bring such individuals into politics.

The magic about Dr Yunus is that he speaks of the most profound problems in the simplest words that even an illiterate villager in Bangladesh can understand. Dr Yunus is a visionary and his simple words are part of his continuous vision for resolution of his country’s problems. Thus, his desire to form a political party to get honest men into politics is a very serious matter for him and though spoken very simply and casually, it is portent with great possibilities for the country. It would be worthwhile therefore to examine these possibilities. A starting point for such examination could be to examine first the reaction that this call by Dr Yunus has caused among the stakeholders, the political parties, the civil society and the people of Bangladesh.

While the people have rejoiced spontaneously in a manner that reminded them of 16th December 1971, the Prize has equally spontaneously shown the political parties in a contrasting light as if the Prize has pushed them against the wall. The two mainstream parties have felt this the most. Therefore naturally the politicians who were feeling the heat with Dr Yunus outside politics have naturally felt apprehension on hearing his desire to entire their domain not to join them but to challenge them. The political leaders who have spoken on the issue have been courteous to the extent of suggesting that everybody has a right to form a political party while at the same time sparing no opportunity to remind him that politics is not as easy as wishing and becoming one; that the process is much more complicated; and one of them has suggested that there is a ‘depoliticisation trap’ that he must get out from to become a politician. Another politician has expressed almost contempt in a Bangla phrase that cannot be translated into English without losing the bite by saying ‘puran pagolay bhat pai na; natun pagol jutay chay’ to dismiss Dr Yunus’ desire. HM Ershad, who has the longest link with politics and knows its nature better than most of the contemporary politicians, said that Dr Yunus should not join politics which has become very dirty and he will himself become questionable if he joins politics. Clearly, among the politicians, Dr Yunus’ interest to form a political party has caused a sense of alarm. Dr Yunus has put the politicians on dock and he has articulated the feeling of disappointment and distrust that prevails in the public about the politicians because of the way they have been pushing the country towards a catastrophe.

The civil society has not lagged behind in their comments to try to make Dr Yunus’ call controversial. They have followed the same tone, though less critical, in the way they have reacted. While not taking the risk to reject the call outright, they have cautioned Dr Yunus about the pitfalls, suggesting to him that he would be able to serve the country better by staying outside and using his stature to influence politics. As a result of the mess made by the politicians, the civil society has recently thrown its hat into politics and has drawn a lot of public attention. One cannot escape the members of the civil society and their views as they can been seen harping these regularly on newspapers, TV talk shows without succeeding even a bit in putting sense into the political parties to give up their confrontational politics. For most members of the civil societies, Dr Yunus’ Nobel Prize has taken a lot of this focus away from them and therefore they feel uncomfortable with his desire to enter politics which should explain their reaction.

The sentiment among the people has been different altogether. In fact, the call has been welcomed by them with great hope and expectation. Dr Yunus’ Noble Prize has come to them like an answer to their prayer to Almighty to save them from the doom towards which the politicians have been leading them. To them, the ‘depoliticisation trap’ is inconsequential. They cannot worry less about the problems of forming a political party; the difficulties in the process and whatever else goes with that. They feel that Dr Yunus is their messiah, who can deliver them from the professional politicians who are holding their future as hostage.

In Bangladesh, it is a simple matter to form a political party. This is a country that tops the world in the number of political parties that are registered to function as such. Awami League has 13 as allies and the BNP has 3. Then there are many others who are not part of these alliances. Most recently, Colonel Wali has expressed his intention to form a new political party. Badrudozza Chowdhury, after being forced out of office as president, formed the Bikolpo Dhara. True, these political parties have been formed by professional politicians but then many of them, Badrudozza Chowdhury for instance, was a doctor who entered politics at the top hierarchy. Therefore, in Bangladesh the idea of forming a political party is not a matter that should have brought from some of our top leadership the type of reaction that we have seen with the call by Dr Yunus. Their reaction can be explained by the fact that they feel very seriously threatened.

If Dr Yunus forms the party can he succeed? It is a difficult one to answer as there is no clear precedent similar to what Dr Yunus intends to do to make a prediction. An analogy, though not a perfect one, is our history after 1969 when Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib’s charisma and the objective conditions existing then allowed the Awami League to catapult from a major party in then East Pakistan to being the only one winning 167 of 169 seats from then East Pakistan in the National Assembly of Pakistan in the 1970 elections. The mood in Bangabandhu’s favour was such that he could nominate a banana tree for a candidate and people would have voted that banana tree to parliament! In Bangladesh today, where the country has shown tremendous potentials in socio-economic development, where the only problem for the country is her politics standing in her way to becoming a successful economic power, an individual with charisma and stature like Dr Yunus can lift the country to reach those tremendous potentials, at least in the public perception. The fact that his party would be a new one, would have weak organisation can be viewed as serious problems but with the public behind him, like they were behind Sheikh Mujib before our liberation, there is an instance in our history to be optimistic about the successful outcome of Dr Yunus’ intention to form a political party. Let us also not forget that in the 1991 elections, the BNP had won with a very weak political party against the Awami League that was far better organised.

The problems in our politics is serious but one created entirely by our political parties, particularly the two mainstream ones. They come from their indulgence in corruption, closeness with criminal elements in society, pursuing their own selfish ends in the name of public interests, etc. The people today hold both the mainstream political parties responsible for the degeneration of our politics. With Dr Yunus heading a political party, all these negative manifestations that characterise every political party in the country today would just not be at the leadership level of this new party. Dr Yunus would of course choose individuals whose honesty and integrity would be above question and in a country of 145 million people that should not be impossible to find. If Dr Yunus could form a political party, get a few hundred honest people to contest the elections, he could set the applecart of the corrupt political parties on fire and ride his own political party to power. Let us not forget also the fact that although Dr Yunus is not a politician, he has a huge organisation at the grassroots level called the Grameen Bank, a co-sharer of the Nobel Prize that he could very gainfully use for political purpose. Let us also not forget that Dr Yunus is one individual who is above all controversy in Bangladesh today whose respect among the people is unquestioned, just like Sheikh Mujib’s was in 1971. If he forms a political party and seeks support of the people for his candidates on the issue of bringing to our politics the spirit of 1971 and there is a mechanism in place for free and fair elections, the people would just stand behind his party in their millions and even the prospect of Dr Yunus’ party winning by a margin Sheikh Mujib won in 1970 would be quite possible. People’s power should never be underestimated but encouraged and people’s power could and should take Dr Yunus to achieve the Bangladesh of our dreams for us.

Dr Yunus’ achievement in winning the Nobel Prize has come for a nation in distress as a ray of hope. Restricting this achievement to holding functions for him and garlanding him would be wasting his efforts and his world-winning potentials. Encouraging him to enter politics would be encouraging him to do much greater good for the country. Just imagine this scenario to reach your own conclusion and don’t be deterred with what politicians and interested members of the civil society say about the difficulties of politics for politics is difficult in our country because the politicians make it so. Imagine Dr Yunus forms his party, participates in the elections with individuals carefully selected, wins the election and forms a Government with not 60 ministers but 16 and runs an administration based on conscience, ethics and morality. That administration would not immediately get the corruption in the bureaucracy banished but in his own party, his ministers and his parliamentarians would be above corruption. That by itself would make it difficult for the administration to be as openly corrupt as it is today. This party would have no political scores to settle with the opposition. Hence, political oppression would vanish. As this party would not need mastaans for political motives, the nexus with criminals would also likewise be gone. The Noble laureate has no family ambitions for he is much above such pettiness. Hence there would be no Hawa Bhavan in his government. On what agenda then would the opposition hold hartals against the government? Finally, Dr Yunus would not need to do politics with the bureaucracy because his stature would be much above these bureaucrats who would just be too willing to serve the country as they are supposed to do. Dr Yunus’ entry into politics thus has great potentials. Dr Yunus, the political leader, can regain the spirit of 1971 for us, unite us again and help us achieve the dream for which millions have accepted martyrdom in 1971. The mainstream political parties, by their destructive politics, have set the stage for a third force that the people have been expectantly talking about for quite sometime now. Who else can be better than Dr Yunus as that third force?

Reform Agenda Number One: Let the government govern

Published in The New Age, October 9, 2006

Looking into the future where the politicians stand between us and our future and with neither of the two major parties a clear favourite for the next election, the time now seems most opportune to force out of them an understanding that no political party will have the ‘right’ to agitate in the streets for the downfall of an elected government and those trying to do so will face legal penalties under the law, writes M Serajul Islam

The BNP and the Awami League have had between them 15 years of people’s support to help achieve the country’s well being. The people have shown their respect for the leadership of both the leading ladies. Their respect for them has been sincere and given with just one hope, that between them, they will help achieve for the country the goals for which millions have accepted martyrdom in 1971. In any other country, with such potentials as they exist in Bangladesh, such respect and support from the people for the leadership would have taken that country towards her cherished goals and easily established her as a respected country in the comity of nations. But 15 years of support and respect our people have given to the two major parties and their top leaders notwithstanding, Bangladesh hovers close to a failed state because our politics and politicians cannot find a single national agenda for bipartisan cooperation. Instead, so extreme is their partisanship, each is more interested in damaging the other than taking the country forward. It is doubtful whether in any other country; such politics exists as they do in Bangladesh, a country where the people have shown at critical times of their history what sacrifices they can make, and what mettle they are made of to achieve their goals.

I was recently watching a TV talk show on our politics with audience participation. Among the panelists, there was an eminent lawyer of international repute and a minister. One of the panelists responded to a question from the audience by stating that the people have the ‘right’ to take the law into their own hands when they feel that their fundamental rights as enshrined in the constitution are being violated. To me this was a most astounding submission that could be made on a public TV channel and that too in the company of a lawyer of such eminence. My first reaction was disappointment, in fact, shock to see the body language of the lawyer to this submission. He did not object to the submission; rather by what he added to her statement, he gave me the clear impression that he supported her.

I am no lawyer. I know Article 11 of our Constitution enshrines that Bangladesh “shall be a democracy in which fundamental human rights and freedoms and respect for the dignity and worth of the human person shall be guaranteed”. These fundamental rights and freedoms are set out in details in the relevant part of the Constitution but nowhere there are individuals given the ‘right’ to enforce these constitutional guarantees by destroying private and public property and creating anarchy when they feel that the government was taking these away. The only legal recourse individuals have to protect these guarantees against infringement by the government is to change that government by constitutional means and also pursue individual infringements in the courts. Attempt to bring down by use of force an elected government is an act of treason that individuals, groups or political parties may attempt at their peril. Admitting the individuals’ right to ensure constitutional guarantees by force against perceived government encroachment is the ideal prescription for lawlessness and anarchy that any right thinking person should shudder before admitting.

But that is not all for the point would need elaboration. Take for example, the issue of Kansat which this panelist used to justify ‘right’ of the individuals to take the law in their hands or for that matter any act of lawlessness that we have seen in this country recently. It is true that in most of these incidents, individual rights have been tampered. It is also true that in most of the cases, the law enforcing agencies have acted in a manner that leaves a lot to be desired. But then, we also know that our democratic politics is now not yet well entrenched institutionally. All the three governments we had in the last 15 years of democratic rule have used law enforcing agencies to tackle political opposition in a manner where fundamental rights of individuals have been violated. The Status of Human Rights Report that the US State Department brings out every year has documented these violations committed by the BNP and the AL while in power. In fact, Bangladesh’s track record on human rights under the BNP and the AL governments is no good or no worse than most developing countries, including our neighbours. In none of these countries do we witness agititational politics of the type we see in Bangladesh. In Bangladesh, the opposition is trying to establish that it is their ‘democratic right’ to force an elected government out by using sometimes genuine cases of violations of fundamental rights as excuses and sometimes on charges that are purely political, subjective and tenuous.

It is true that under the present BNP government, violation of individuals’ fundamental rights have been somewhat more. It is also true that there have been political killings of top opposition leaders including an attempt on the life of the leader of the opposition and that the government has failed to bring the culprits of these dastardly acts to justice. But these violations would hardly justify, as some political parties have suggested, turning the entire country into Kansat and Shanir Akhra, for bringing down in their words an ‘autocratic’ government. In a developing country trying to establish democracy, such incidents will occur. Power shortage, for example, will not go away no matter who wins the next government. Violations of fundamental rights will occur likewise as they have in all the democratic governments we had since 1991. These are due partly to failure of governance and partly to poor economic infrastructure and resources. The resolution of these problems is directly dependent on improvement of governance for which both the major political parties should take responsibility and economic development of the country for which peace and not conflict is of the essence. It would be sheer madness to even suggest that these problems would be gone if the political parties are allowed to physically force out an elected government whenever they feel the people’s rights are being violated or that a government in power is failing at governance. The political parties have the right to articulate these failures of the government for the people; they are not the court and have no power to adjudicate and pass judgments. The political parties, least of all, should neither indulge in movements for removing an elected government nor encourage individuals to take the law into their own hands and create lawlessness.

It is therefore very important to give serious thought to what the AL is trying to establish in our politics; the right of political parties to do constitutional politics when they wish and to do street politics when they please and mix the two at their discretion. One issue has been very clearly established in Bangladesh through the last 3 elections that governments are now elected freely and fairly, the losers’ cry to the contrary notwithstanding. It has also been well established that no political party can shorten the life of the government even by a single day by unconstitutional means because the people are against it. Another established fact is the attempts to bring down elected governments by unconstitutional means are creating serious impediments to governance and causing the country unimaginable harm. It is therefore of the greatest importance that we now assert unequivocally that the Constitution of the country does not give any political party the right to bring down an elected government by force. Establishing this fact unequivocally will also force the political parties to try and make the parliamentary system work by using the parliament effectively in trying to resolve the problems like Kansat, Shanir Akhra and the rest.

The Awami League and the BNP deserve great credit in removing Ershad’s dictatorship after a decade-long movement in 1990. Since then, these two parties have shared government and the country saw three elections that have been by all accounts as free as elections in a developing country can be expected to be. Without going into details, it would be important to note that in each of these elections, the public mood was effectively translated in sending their party of choice to power. The other point to note would be that in 1996, the party that was in office lost the elections and again in 2001, the same thing happened, indicating prima facie that the

However, the AL and the BNP, in sharing power have demonstrated certain traits that fundamentally contradict the elementary principles of democracy. They have not accepted their defeat in elections graciously and have been poor losers. The AL has demonstrated this trait more than the BNP. In their two tenures in the opposition, the AL never accepted the legitimacy of the BNP government and has tried to forcibly bring down both the BNP governments by hartals, and a host of negative and destructive politics. As a result, the party failed to play the role of an opposition in a democracy, that of a watch dog, by boycotting the parliament. The BNP likewise followed the AL examples and agitated against the AL government when they were in the opposition and carried out the ‘tradition’ of negative politics set by the AL. The sad aspect of this unfortunate trait has been the fact that allegations for which each has denied the other legitimacy to govern have been at best tenuous and subjective. The three elections we had since the fall of Ershad have been observed by many national and international observer groups and there has not been one report where any of these groups have made comments on the issue of fairness that even comes remotely close to the accusations made by the losers, the Awami League in particular. This notwithstanding, the two parties while in the opposition, have made governance difficult through hartals, oborods, shamabesh and mahasamabesh for which the parties have not suffered but the country has. So a legitimate question that comes to mind is why did these parties indulge in such negative and destructive politics? Whose interest did their politics serve and whose interests did they affect? These are crucial questions and answers to these questions are in my view more important than the utopia that the two parties are now seeking, namely to find individuals to run the next election under the Non-party Caretaker Government.

I have my doubts that the two main parties, who have between them messed our politics, will be able to resolve the issues before them although the nation is very eagerly hoping they would. The AL has already claimed victory because they have been able to keep the Jamaat out of the talks. Sheikh Hasina has reiterated that they want wholesale removal of top brass of the EC and Justice Hasan. The prime minister has stressed that the Constitution must be upheld which means the NCG would be headed by Justice Hasan. The Jamaat has reminded the prime minister also that the Constitution should not be compromised under AL intransigence.

The current political scenario is therefore most uncertain. However, beneath the uncertainty, new realities are emerging that the major political parties better take note for their own well-being and that of the country. In between the BNP’s poor governance and the AL’s ceaseless agitation to unseat an elected government, the people have lost a lot of faith in both the mainstream parties and the two ladies. But then in the absence of a third force, they have little option but to choose between the two, although in the event of a third force emerging between now and election time –– and there are good hints at that direction too –– the two mainstream political parties could be setting themselves for a shock. At least one politician has taken note of this change in wind direction. Ershad, who sometime back had said he would decide whether or not to join the BNP alliance by September, has cleverly backtracked and in all probability will go for the elections alone to cash on the prospects of getting the third force votes.

But then that is a future scenario. For the present, let me go back to the TV talk show. The minister on the panel said something with which I quite agreed. He said that in the last three elections, voters were least bothered about individuals in the EC or the NCG and given the chance to vote with reasonable freedom, they were able to elect to office the party of their choice. Given all the controversy that the AL has raised over the EC and the NCG, the fact is that even without any changes, the voters would again succeed in doing the same. Politics of the country has become more transparent despite attempts of both the parties to the contrary. However, to be fair to the AL, their demands against lack of transparency and neutrality of the current EC must be addressed and redressed. Their demand for the removal of bureaucrats that the BNP has placed in the field with the elections in mind should also be addressed and corrected although the AL did the same in 2001. Their demand against Justice Hasan, however, is not based on correct interpretation of the Constitution as I wrote in a recent article in this paper. The BNP extended the retirement age of judges to avoid another CJ as the head of the NCG but that is politics for which the AL can try and take advantage with the voters who are now matured and understand politics better. To victimise Justice Hasan and disregard the Constitution would set a very bad precedent. Moreover, as the NDI has written in its recent report, the head of the NCG, surrounded by 10 other advisers and under the glare of national and international stakeholders, would have very little chance to show bias towards any political party.

Looking into the future where the politicians stand between us and our future and with neither of the two major parties a clear favourite for the next election, the time now seems most opportune to force out of them an understanding that no political party will have the ‘right’ to agitate in the streets for the downfall of an elected government and those trying to do so will face legal penalties under the law. Reform of institutions like the EC and the NCG will be an ongoing process even if the two parties succeed in their current negotiations. It is the respect for institutions and, most important of all, in the legally installed government and the Constitution that the nation should now demand and make the politicians accept without any condition. This demand and its acceptance is also the key to Bangladesh’s future and anything short of it will keep Bangladesh hovering close to being a failed state.

Koizumi Departs

Published in New Age, September 27, 2006

As Koizumi departs a star sets over Japan

Japan after Koizumi will continue to remain the world’s second biggest economy, perhaps achieve more economic miracles but the nearly 5 years and five months of flamboyance and focus that Japan enjoyed under Koizumi’s tenure will take some efforts, luck, and a host of other factors to achieve again…. Japan and the world will be poorer without Koizumi, writes M Serajul Islam

In the land of the Rising Sun, a star has set. Prime minister Junichiro Koizumi stepped down as prime minister when Shinzo Abe assumed office of president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on 26 September which has ruled Japan since 1955 except for a few months in 1993. Koizumi had been Prime Minister for 5 years and five months that is in LDP’s factionalised politics almost a miracle making his tenure the third longest among Japan’s post-Second World War prime ministers. What makes Koizumi’s tenure exceptional is the fact that he stayed in power by dismantling almost all traditions in LDP’s secretive politics. In a society where consensus is of the essence, he stamped his own will and vision in all major decisions while he has been in power. Koizumi’s departure will end an era in Japan’s politics during which he split open Japan’s politics and economy and subjected both to much needed reforms that everyone thought were necessary but no one before him dared to undertake.

Koizumi’s long tenure defies any simple explanation because the odds he had to fight to remain in office have been tremendous. He inherited an office where power before him was exercised on the prime minister’s behalf by bosses of the factions of the ruling LDP. He inherited an economy that was stagnating because no prime minister before him had the courage or the political will to make the structural reforms that were necessary after the bubble economy burst in the early 1990s because a nexus among powerful politicians, bureaucrats and private sector stood in the way. Where no prime minister before him dared to tread because of these odds, Koizumi did so fearlessly and set into motion the reform agenda he had articulated in his mind from his long experience in politics. It may be too early to tell whether the path that Koizumi charted for his country will be successful for his reforms are still in incubation but by bringing the much needed reforms into the centre of the political stage, Koizumi has charted for Japan a course that no one contradicts was necessary.

A quintessential reformer
Koizumi has been the quintessential reformer. His family and political background both set him up for the role. An economics graduate of the prestigious Keio University, Koizumi went to England for further studies but returned without finishing his studies following the death of his father. In 1970, he became a political aide to Takeo Fukuda, later to become prime minister. As parliamentary vice-minister of finance (1979), minister of health (1988 and 1996) and minister of post and telecommunications (1992) he watched from very close quarters how an old generation of LDP leaders without a vision for the future was resisting change to maintain their privileges. He also prepared himself for his reform role from lessons he drew from historical figures such as Shoin Yoshida (1830-1859), a patriot and scholar, who in the turbulent period before the Meiji Restoration showed courage and conviction as an educator that helped produce many outstanding men who led Japan during the Meiji Restoration that ushered the country’s modern era. His other respected historical personality is Winston Churchill who influenced him by his indomitable sprit in fighting Hitler. His brief marriage in the late 1970s ended when his wife was pregnant with a third son who he never saw nor showed any inclination to see.

By the time he became prime minister, his politics and his vision for reforms were his sole focus in life. In his mind, he understood the reforms that needed to be taken for Japan’s future very clearly. Thus he could say upon becoming prime minister ‘I want to destroy the old LDP’ because he saw the resistance to change and reform that were necessary for Japan’s future embedded in his own party. He took up each reform issue separately with dedication that was awesome. In politics, he assessed that a weak prime minister, prey to faction bosses, was the crucial problem. Koizumi was thus determined to wrest power from the faction bosses and make the prime minister’s office powerful from day one in office. When Koizumi assumed office there were a number of factions in the LDP of which the Mori faction to which he himself belonged and the Hashimoto faction being the two largest. Behind the scenes, the faction bosses manoeuvred and controlled the members of the LDP, chose the prime ministers, selected for them their cabinets and also set their agendas. Koizumi’s first task was to take power away from the faction bosses. Upon becoming prime minister, he did not allow them to choose either his cabinet or the agenda of his government. He did so ruthlessly but efficiently without much more than a murmur. He encouraged young LDP parliamentarians to remain out of the influence of the factions. In fact, in the elections held last year, he brought to politics at least 80 young parliamentarians who have been given the name ‘Koizumi kids’. Koizumi personally encouraged these young Diet members not to sign into any faction in his desire to end the rule of the faction bosses within the LDP.

Economic reforms
In the economy, Koizumi’s reforms focused on breaking the hold of the central government over the local governments. He was keen to break the powerful ministry of finance that he identified as the root of many problems in the economy. In this regard, the trinity of reform package was the most important one. That package proposes to decentralise the financial powers of taxation from the centre to the local governments. Reforms have also been undertaken to cut down huge government expenditures.

Koizumi’s other key reform of the economy has been the privatisation of the postal services for which last year he even put his own future and his party’s at stake by dissolving the parliament and seeking an early election when some of his own members voted with the opposition to defeat the bills related to postal privatisation in the upper house. The privatisation of the postal services will release US$ 3 trillions for fruitful use, money that now languishes in deposits that are honey upon which the politicians and local-level bureaucrats infest. Once privatised, the postal service now employing close to 300,000 people will also be able to get rid of a huge and largely unnecessary bureaucracy.

In effect, Koizumi’s economic reforms have been directed in reducing the influence of the politicians and the bureaucrats who use the central government’s financial resources to indulge in huge public expenditures, a lot of them un-necessary, which have become breeding grounds of corruption. His focus was upon reducing the central government’s power, influence and expenditures through decentralisation.

International politics
In international politics, Koizumi gave Japan a new assertiveness. On Iraq, he went along with the USA, despite considerable opposition at home because he considered it necessary for strengthening the US-Japan strategic alliance. During his term, the Japan-US strategic alliance was reassessed and strengthened. He developed extremely close friendship with Bush.

Yet, when he needed to deal with the issues of the 13 abductees who were kidnapped to North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s, an issue that touches the psyche of every Japanese, he went to Pyongyang in September, 2002, against the United States’ expressed wishes and was able to bring back some of the abductees while getting information about a few others.

His yearly visits to the Yasukuni Shrine where 12 convicted and two indicted Class-A war criminals are enshrined have been made without fuss because he considered those visits necessary not to offend his neighbours but to encourage resurgent Japanese nationalism that has been suppressed for too long by what he believed to be imposed pacifism that is no longer consistent with Japan’s future when there is so much tension in the Korean Peninsula because of North Korea and her nuclear threat.

The US$ 10 billion fund evolved last year for helping the least developed countries has been another positive Koizumi initiative.

The legacy
How will history assess Koizumi? There are conflicting views. The majority view though is positive. He used his good looks and charismatic charm to cast spell upon his people who found in him the star appeal that Japanese politicians are known not to have. His reforms of the economy have set to motion many positive forces but it will take time to see the overall results. Also, the results will depend upon his successor’s will to pursue the reforms.

However, there are a few undeniable facts in favour of Koizumi. The mountain of bad debts at the banks has shrunk and the Nikkei stock exchange has swelled. The Japanese economy, after years of deflation and stagnation, is showing signs of sustainable recovery. His emphasis in breaking down the nexus among the politicians, bureaucracy and the private sector has been welcomed by his countrymen. Similarly, his trinity of reform package to decentralise the financial powers from the sentre to the local governments; steps to reduce public spending and reforms aimed at deregulating industries have also been well received.

Koizumi’s reforms have been directed towards taking power away from the politicians and the bureaucrats who between them have sustained a system where both have benefited greatly in receiving financial benefits and related perks from the private sector. Last year, when his Postal Privatisation Bills were defeated in the upper house of parliament, Koizumi immediately dissolved parliament that he did not have to as losing a bill in upper house was not a test of confidence. His onetime mentor, former prime minister Mori, had advised him against the decision and for a brief period, there was talk in Tokyo that Koizumi’s decision would bring the end of the LDP’s almost stranglehold on power. Koizumi fought that election almost single-handedly, a fight that was as much with the opposition as was with members of his own party who opposed him on the Postal Privatisation Bill. He ensured that all the opponents in his party were just not thrown from the LDP, but that they also did not return to the parliament individually. He ensured both by nominating against the “postal rebels” the best LDP candidates and himself campaigned with the voters to defeat them. By appealing to the people directly with his charisma, Koizumi won for the LDP a 2/3rd majority that was a gamble that Koizumi alone could take and a miracle that he alone could achieve.

In foreign affairs, his supporters will speak in glowing terms for he gave Japan new assertiveness against his predecessors’ timid initiatives.

Koizumi has critics nevertheless. He will be criticised for his authoritarian manner where he has dealt with opposition ruthlessly and mercilessly. Koizumi will also be criticised for his over-zealousness on reforms while paying too little attention on Japanese society and its problems such as her aging and declining population, the needs of social security nets, etc. Minoru Morita, an elder journalist of Japan and a well known Koizumi critic, says this of his administration: ‘The Koizumi administration was the worst possible for the Japanese people. In terms of foreign diplomacy, it worsened relations with neighbouring countries, while domestically it spawned severe disparities within society. A small number of people reaped benefits. The great majority, however, suffered considerable disadvantage and lost hope.’ Morita credits Koizumi or creating a new class called ‘freeters’ who he describes as ‘hordes of directionless young workers who drift from one low-paid job to another without gaining marketable skills’.

Koizumi, his critics will also say, has destroyed the old Japan, its paternalistic political order in particular but he has failed to bring a consensus among the Japanese who, while giving him the best approval rating of 50% among Japan’s long serving prime ministers, also acknowledge that he has shaken up Japan and in that, he has destroyed both the bad and the good of that Japan. Hence they fear that there could be a backlash to his reforms.

Japan’s failure to win the permanent seat in the UN Security Council because of her hasty decision to join the G4 Group will no doubt be seen by critics as a failure of Japan’s foreign policy under Koizumi’s watch who will likewise criticize Koizumi for bringing Japan’ relations with China to an all-time low.

Koizumi’s successor, Shinzo Abe, has vowed to continue with the reforms. Abe has shared a lot of the Koizumi vision as the LDP secretary-general (2003) and later as chief cabinet secretary (2005). However, Koizumi has been the reformer willing to bet his future and his party’s on both instincts and beliefs. He did not hesitate in reducing wasteful public expenditures that have traditionally won the LDP votes across the country. It is unlikely Abe will be a reformer in the Koizumi mould. Koizumi has also been immensely lucky as was the case with his decision to dispatch SDF forces to Iraq where a few deaths would have been disaster for him. In Iraq where all countries who dispatched troops have lost some of them, Japan was the lucky country whose troops returned unharmed and the benefit of that luck has gone entirely all to Koizumi.

Japan after Koizumi will continue to remain the world’s second biggest economy, perhaps achieve more economic miracles but the nearly 5 years and five months of flamboyance and focus that Japan enjoyed under Koizumi’s tenure will take some efforts, luck, and a host of other factors to achieve again. Tanaka, the Foreign Minister he once sacked, called him a weirdo, others have called him a maverick but in the end when he leaves, he will be loved by many more people than will criticise him because politicians like Koizumi come upon a people at very large intervals. Abe will become Prime Minister without any past ministerial experience but great family connections and may eventually make a very good prime minister but Japan and the world will be poorer without Koizumi.

The writer is a former ambassador of Bangladesh to Japan. He can be reached at Serajul_islam@uignet.com