Transit and Geopolitical Realities

Published in The Daily Star August 16, 2008

BANGLADESH has once again deflected the Indian request for transit at the just concluded Foreign Secretary level talks. The transit to the seven Northeast Indian provinces (Assam, Nagaland, Tripura, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh) known as the Seven Sisters (SS) from the rest of India through Bangladesh, to which request to use of the Chittagong Port for these provinces was added later, has been unresolved since the Bangladesh-India Trade Agreement of 1972 called for use of railways, waterways and road in each other's country for trade.

In isolation, the request is innocuous, an economic issue in the words of the Indian High Commissioner. In the context of Bangladesh-India relations, it is neither innocuous nor economic but a highly sensitive issue. All past Governments of Bangladesh, political parties, the civil society and the public generally have rejected the issue. In a country where bipartisanship on national issues is unknown to the two major political parties, this issue unites both the BNP and the AL in denial, as it unites every group, every opinion. The manner in which political parties, the civil society and the public reject the Indian request is also worth noting as was evident in a meeting called by the BNP alliance to protest the Indian request when news came to press that the current Government would agree to give India transit, at the New Delhi Bangladesh India Foreign Secretary level meeting. Speakers were so charged that it appeared as if India had invaded Bangladesh unilaterally.

Why does a seemingly innocuous issue arouse such nationalistic passion in Bangladesh? It is a very complex question whose answer is embedded partly in psychology and party in history. A fear that Bangladesh would lose its sovereignty to India has never left the minds of most Bangladeshis since her independence, because India is 23 times bigger, and surrounds her on three sides. This fear has been aggravated by a history of India's overbearing attitude in all unresolved bilateral issues where she has been unilateral and unfair in negotiations to resolve them. The Ganges water sharing issue arising out of India's unilateral construction and implementation of the Farakka Barrage just before the mighty Ganges enters Bangladesh has been the litmus test in enhancing Bangladesh's fear and distrust of India. Bangladeshis believe they were taken for granted on the Farakka issue and denied a fair share of the waters of this international river since it was activated in 1974 that has started the process of desertification of northern part of Bangladesh. Almost all of Bangladesh's other 50 plus rivers, including the Brahmaputra, also flow from India. As an agricultural country where her rivers sustain life and livelihood in a major way, this fact sends shivers down most Bangladeshis spine in the fear that India would ultimately deprive them of the waters of these rivers as well. In 1974, the two countries signed the Indira-Mujib Border Agreement that Bangladesh ratified within months and fulfilled its obligations. Till today India has not fulfilled its treaty obligations. In 1992, Bangladesh lowered tariffs against a large number of Indian commodities soon after signing the SAPTA. India has not done so yet, as a result of which the bilateral trade imbalance that was already heavily in India's favour has widened further. India has built fence all along its border with Bangladesh to stop what it terms as illegal migration, which Bangladesh denies. A segment of the Indian media and academia have been instrumental in projecting Bangladesh as a fundamentalist Muslim state although she is a liberal democracy.

The India psychosis is also based on India's poor relations with her other South Asian neighbours where only Pakistan has been taken seriously as it is a fellow nuclear power. India has not taken positive steps to allay their fears appearing instead the same way the neo-cons under Bush appear to the rest of the world; a take it or leave it attitude that has vitiated good neighborliness in South Asia. Given its size and importance, India's neighbours expect her to allay their insecurity by making concession to their needs. Instead, India has demanded more of its neighbours than the concessions she has made or willing to make.

The psychology and history explaining the passion of ultra-nationalism that India arouses in Bangladesh notwithstanding, it is time we take a reality check on the transit issue. A few facts beg consideration for our national interest. The first is geopolitics; that Bangladesh just not stands in between the SS and the rest of India; she is also between these provinces and their access to the sea, thus holding the key to their economic development to the fullest potential. If India gets transit, it will save her billions of dollars annually and time, both critical to the economic development of the SS. Second is India's role in world affairs. Today India is an acknowledged regional power. No great power will help Bangladesh to resolve her problems with India. Bangladesh will have to negotiate with India and resolve these issues. The importance of good relations with India can hardly be over-emphasized. For example, Bangladesh has, according to credible international energy assessments, potential for hydrocarbons in the Bay of Bengal. Unfortunately, her maritime boundary issue with India is unresolved. Bangladesh will thus have difficulty in drilling for oil or gas there.

Bangladesh must thus look at the transit issue dispassionately, bearing in mind that this is a card in her hand given by geography. Here are the advantages. The transit and the use of Chittagong Port will integrate the economies of the SS to Bangladesh giving her leverage in future negotiations with India on other issues where she now has none. Bangladesh will earn substantial amount of money from transit and use of the port because India must pay for using these not forgetting that she now spend billions of dollars and extra time annually in their absence. A positive stance will also motivate India to be fair to Bangladesh on water and other unresolved issues. It will also create trust and confidence in Bangladesh and the environment for mutually beneficial cooperation between just not Bangladesh and India but sub-regional cooperation by including Nepal and Bhutan to harness the vast water resources in the region that is potentially the second richest in the world. However, transit right need not necessarily be in perpetuity and can be always be revoked should India not reciprocate in equal measure.

Bangladesh must realize that the transit and use of Chittagong Port are the only cards she has to interest India and that a friendly India is crucial to her future. Given India's track record, it will not be easy to use these issues as negotiating chips for securing Bangladesh's interests such as a just share of waters of the common rivers, removing trade imbalance, a just and fair maritime accord, etc. That is a chance Bangladesh must take for its future. This will be a test of diplomatic skills of those in charge, whose hands Bangladesh must strengthen by a pragmatic stance on this issue in particular and on her relations with India in general.

However, decision on transit must be left to an elected government because of the significance of the issue, but resolve she must if she is realistic and has an understanding of the international forces at play in a new and evolving world order. India must consider the billions of dollars she will save from the transit and its positive impact on the SS. She must also consider the impact of this on the prospect of harnessing and using the vast water resources through sub-regional cooperation; in tackling her fear of terrorism; and the credibility it will create for her in world affairs where her poor relations with neighbours is one that those critical about her can legitimately use against her.

If Bangladesh plays the transit card right, there is no logical reason for India not to reciprocate for her own sake because the consequence of a destabilized of 150 million people is too nightmarish for her. Bangladesh and India must not waste a win win situation for both because of politics. India must show that her heart is large enough to match her size and stature. Bangladesh must show that she has a grasp of reality.