30th August Japanese elections that LDP could lose

Published in The Daily Star, July 18, 2009

JAPANESE Prime Minister Taro Aso's tenuous tenure seems set to end as he was forced to declare elections for the Lower House following his party's disastrous performance at the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections, winning only 38 seats against the Opposition Democratic Party of Japan's 54 seats. After Koizumi left in 2006 completing a record five years in office, Aso became the third Prime Minister in September 2008 and has ever since been under the threat of losing his job. According to most predictions, he may have set the LDP on course to yield to the DPJ the chance to form the next government in the elections scheduled to be held on August 30th.

Aso, in any case, could hold on to power only till October this year when the tenure of the current Lower House would end mandatorily. He took the chance to dissolve the Lower House following the LDP's disastrous performance in Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly to lead the LDP in the next elections. If he had not dissolved the Lower House to call the elections, he would have surely been forced to quit. Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections should not usually play a role in national politics for it never has. Since April, the LDP lost four regional elections on the trot before the Tokyo elections, which made the defeat in Tokyo so significant.

Japanese voters were becoming increasingly disappointed with the performance of the LDP since the departure of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Their disappointment has been enhanced during Taro Aso's less than a year's tenure by a series of gaffes, a lot of which were contributed by the Prime Minister himself, and economic problems that have led to frequent calls for his resignation. In a highly publicized incident, one of his ministers came to a press interview, while abroad, drunk. Taro Aso has been well known for his gaffes and controversial statements ever since he entered politics, which he continued even as Prime Minister. Some of these gaffes have also offended the voters, for example his remarks criticizing the elderly for racking up medical expenses and being a tax burden that created uproar. He often appeared in front pages of leading Japanese newspapers for his frequent gaffes and controversial statements.

In Japan's conservative politics the LDP has held office since 1955, losing power only briefly in 1993. Nevertheless, there has been constant discussion and criticism in Japan about LDP's style of politics. There are many who feel that it is necessary to change either that style of politics or to give power to some other party other than the LDP. During Koizumi's tenure, many had expected that LDP would change permanently. Koizumi changed the old style of politics within the faction ridden LDP. Before, faction bosses determined the fate of the party and the country issues behind the scene where even the Prime Minister had little influence in the choice of the Cabinet.

In five years, Koizumi turned LDP's politics upside down. He all but destroyed the factions and the role of their bosses. In 2005, he did something unique in Japan's politics. On losing a bill of privatization of the postal services in the Upper House where some members of his own party voted against the LDP, he dissolved the Lower House and called for elections that most analysts thought LDP would lose badly. In that election, he not only took on the opposition but also his own party members who voted against the party on the issue of the postal service privatization bill. He also did something even more dramatic: he nominated nearly 100 candidates who were fresh in politics, fondly called “Koizumi's kids”. He fielded them against veteran opposition candidates and his own party renegades and succeeded in winning the elections with a 2/3rd majority.

Japanese politics relented back to age old traditions with factions and faction bosses regaining most of their historical strength and influence once Koizumi left the scene. The Koizumi kids are forgotten and the LDP has once again become a revolving door of Prime Ministers with Taro Aso the third in 2 years. Although Aso has been forced to dissolve the Lower House in the backdrop of the disastrous Tokyo Assembly elections, the numbers that have been coming to the media on his government's performance and his own popularity rating have been equally disastrous, if not more. Aso's popularity was down to 20% when the Prime Minister decided to call the elections. If the LDP had not lost so disastrously in Tokyo or the end of the term of the Lower House was so imminent, Aso would have gone the same way as his two predecessors Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda.

The LDP is suffering from leadership crisis at this moment. There is no one in the party with the charisma or the leadership qualities required to get the LDP out of the present slump. In a way, Koizumi's five years dominance of LDP and his style of running the party did not allow leaders to grow, who would have the vision to carry forward the directions that Koizumi had set for the LDP. Even within the LDP, there is little optimism today that the party under Taro Aso would be able to turn this election around. In fact, some of the senior members of the party are hoping that the DPJ would win and then make a mess of governance due to its inexperience so that the voters would soon give their support to the LDP to form government once again. These perceptions notwithstanding, there has to be a dramatic change in voters' preference to send the DPJ to power. The LDP has 303 seats and its ally, the New Komeito has 31 against the DPJ's 112 in a Lower House of 483.

The DPJ's best bet in winning would rest primarily on the voters' disenchantment with the LDP's style of politics and the need for a change. The disenchantment of the voters has been reinforced by all three successors of Koizumi with Aso making the best effort in this regard. His challenger is DPJ's President Kunio Hatoyoma, who has a PhD degree from Stanford and a political lineage to match if not better than that of Aso. Kunio Hatoyoma is the grandson of former Prime Minister Ichihiro Hatoyoma and his father was a former Foreign Minister of Japan. Kunio Hatoyoma has called for a new era of politics in Japan that should be inspired by Barak Obama's election as the President of USA. He has also made promises that should be attractive for the Japanese voters yearning to replace Aso. The DPJ has promised to improve welfare measures, lower cost of education, reduce bureaucracy and strengthen the agriculture sector. The voters could very well back the DPJ for these promises in the coming elections.

The next Japanese elections will be interesting as it will be one where the LDP will have to do something extraordinary to win or the DPJ something disastrous to lose. In case of a DPJ victory, Japanese politics could witness the beginning of a new era with the end of more than six decades of LDP's stranglehold on power.