Are Indo-US relations back on track?

Published in The Daily Star, 24th April, 2010

UNDERSTANDING Cold War international politics was easy. The world then was fairly evenly divided between the two Super Powers and smaller powers belonged to one of the two camps. There was of course a third camp of Non-Aligned countries but most of them too in one way or the other belonged to one of the two camps. One of the themes of relations among nations then was: “the enemy's enemy is my friend.”

With the Cold War in the graveyard of history, balancing contradictory interests among nations is now a very difficult task at the international level. Thus, today we witness far more conflicts than during the Cold War era. The war on terror has turned the world upside down with the introduction of non-state actors and terrorists. The US as the worlds only remaining Super Power is now up to its wits in attempting to balance conflicting interests to make the world safer. US' predicament with its foreign policy goals is facing tough challenge in South Asia as it tries to balance the conflicting interests of India and Pakistan, both nuclear states, into some common purpose to win the war against terror.

USA had leaned towards Pakistan while keeping India at arm's length till Soviet Union dissipated in 1991. During the 1980s, USA and Pakistan were in very close alliance in attempting to deal with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Since then, USA has made amends and also moved towards India while keeping Pakistan happy with military and economic assistance. Since 9/11, US-Pakistan relations have regained more than the warmth that existed in the best of times in the past as President Bush accepted Pakistan as USA's most important ally in the war against terror, recognising the fact that without Pakistan's support US would never win that war.

President Bush, however, realised very well that the mindset in both the nations did not change with the end of the Cold War days where each saw US closeness to the other as something negative to its interests. That notwithstanding, in acknowledgement of India's importance as an emerging major player in world politics, US initiated with India the process of signing the US-India civil nuclear deal in 2005 and signed it eventually in 2008. It gave India a pride of position as a nuclear weapons state in the same league with the other responsible nuclear powers. During President Bush's presidency, US-India relations were on an upswing although India had a long list of complaints on US's reluctance to talk to Pakistan on its role in cross border terrorism.

President Obama's decision to substantially increase US troops in Afghanistan in order to win it has placed US-Pakistan relations, despite its own hiccups, on stronger footing than in the past, much to the discomfort of the Indians. Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh was invited to Washington in November last year and shown great honour and courtesy that stabilized relations for a while. However, India's continued failure to encourage the US to use its overwhelming influence over Pakistan to give up terrorism as a policy has stalled relations. The relationships hit another serious snag over India's lack of success so far to extradite to India or gain access to David Headley (originally Dawood Jilani who accepted the Christian name to avoid detection), a US citizen of Pakistani origin now in US custody in connection with masterminding the Mumbai attack on 26th November 2008. In fact, India's patience has been tested to its limits because instead of acting on the Indian request to rein in Pakistan, US has been suggesting to India to engage in dialogue with Pakistan and solve these problems bilaterally and doing precious little over access to Headley.

From the Indian point of view, US' tepidity in talking to Pakistan has been complicated further because of the explosive nature of domestic build-up of sentiments around 26/11. The fact that Dr. Manmohon Singh has been the most pro-US Prime Minister in Indian history has put additional pressure on the Indian Prime Minister leading up to his meeting with the US President on the sideline of the Nuclear Summit where 47 world leaders gathered early last week (April 12-13). The US took special care to create the feeling that the Obama-Manmohan meeting, which was the first of five meetings the US President held that day, was the special one. While 45-minute time slots were reserved for the other 4 meetings, 90 minutes was allotted for the Obama-Manmohan meeting, though the two used 55 minutes of it. Media attention was also heavily focused on the meeting and generous references were made to the statesmanship of the Indian Prime Minister.

President Obama, whose use of words reveals the same charming nature of the man, said that US-India would work through the legal process for access to David Headley. He also said US would continue to depend on India for development of Afghanistan, a reference intended to take care of India's sensitivity about being historically a neighbour of Afghanistan till the partition of 1947 and Pakistan's contention that India should not meddle in affairs there as it is no longer a neighbour of that country. He also categorically asserted that US understood India's concern over the Af-Pak region and would not do anything that would in any way harm US-India strategic partnership. He added that there is no other country where “opportunities for a strategic partnership is greater” than in India. There was relief, satisfaction, and renewed confidence among Indian officials that US-India relations were firmly back on track, which was conveyed to the media by the Indian Foreign Secretary after the talks.

Everything did not go India's way at the talks although relations have been brought back on rails. President Obama did ask his guest to engage in negotiations that did not reflect that he fully acknowledged the depth of Indian concern over terrorism as a policy by Pakistan. There have thus been criticisms too about the outcome. Skeptics felt that despite assurances, US would not be able to force Pakistan on India's security concerns because its own security concerns needs a willing and obliging Pakistani army. These skeptics also feel that US would not allow access to Headley because he could reveal information that could embarrass the US. It was expected that President Obama would in some way talk about Indian concern in his meeting with the Pakistani Prime Minister. Instead, Yusuf Gilani asked from India more evidence against Lashkar- e -Tayeba (LeT) in a press interview after his talks with President Obama. This angered the Indian Prime Minister so much that he ruled out all talks with Pakistan till it took “credible steps” against LeT. Such a statement also suggests that India would be overly optimistic to believe that US would push Pakistan seriously on its security concerns. President Obama is expected to visit India in August and one must wait till then to get a better grip on US-India relations.

The author is a former Ambassador to Japan and Egypt and Director, Centre for Foreign Affairs Studies.