Daily Sun
March 18, 2012
M. Serajul Islam
A good friend asked me to look for some positive developments in
Bangladesh-India relations to arrive at a balanced view of the way in which
these relations are moving. In particular, he said that as a result of the
initiative of our Prime Minister, there have been big strides on the economic
front, particularly in our exports to India. His emphasis was on the 65 RMG
items that have been given duty free access to the Indian market that he felt
would help Bangladesh make big inroads in to the Indian market.
In a number of seminars I attended recently, I came across some
economists who have strongly opposed those critical on Indian failure to
reciprocate on issues of water, border and land boundary. They termed such
criticisms of India as rhetoric and detrimental to the interests of Bangladesh.
They asked the critics to wait with a little patience to see the benefits that
Bangladesh would soon receive from Indian policies aimed at assisting Bangladesh
benefit from trade cooperation trade with it.
In my own writings in a number of newspapers on Bangladesh-India
relations, I have been critical of the way India has failed to reciprocate to
the courageous gestures and initiatives of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. I felt
that our Prime Minister took great political risk to unilaterally offer India
full support for its security concerns by stating firmly that Bangladesh would
not be allowed to be used for terrorist attacks on India. In that context, she
handed to India seven top ULFA insurgents who had been hiding in Bangladesh
that has virtually ended the strong movement of independence of Assam.
As a former Director-General for South Asia in our Ministry of Foreign Affairs and having
served in New Delhi, I have always felt that Bangladesh’s future and its
prosperity is inextricably linked with developing positive relations with
India. Factors of geopolitics make this absolutely indispensible. However, this geopolitical compulsion is not
upon Bangladesh alone. India too is as much dependent on geopolitics to seek
positive relations with Bangladesh. Land transit from mainland to India to the
8 northeastern states is not just an economic imperative for India. In fact,
the more important reasons are, first , security of the northeastern states
and, second, its integration with India.
Even in last term of the AL, land transit was an issue that the
Government would not discuss with India because it was considered Bangladesh’s
only card to negotiate with India for its legitimate rights on water, trade and
border issues. Unfortunately this time those who feel that Bangladesh needs
good relations with India for its own sake have been left wondering what more
could Bangladesh have done to make India happy. In Bangladesh, where India is a factor in
politics, it is more a wonder why India would push the Awami League that is its
natural ally historically into such a predicament where its failures are going
to cost the AL heavily in the elections due in two years’ time.
The Indians, unfortunately seem to care very little for sentiments
in Bangladesh or the predicament of the Awami League. The Indian Prime Minister
saw for himself the deep frustration among the people on the failure to sign
the Teesta deal. He acknowledged that by assuring in his speech to a gathering
of Dhaka’s elites in Dhaka University that his government would make all
efforts for the Teesta deal to be
signed as soon as possible. That is not happening and the Teesta deal seems now
to be sinking into the quick sands. Other issues such as killings on the
border, Tippaimukh, etc have moved away from the expectations of the people of
Bangladesh.
Instead of caring for the sentiments of the people of Bangladesh,
the Indians have introduced new and dangerous issues that are perplexing. The
project or linking the Brahmaputra with the Ganges is one such issue. The Indians had always
their eyes on the water of the Brahmaputra that the Indians could not dam
because of the terrain and its fast flowing nature. The Indians wanted a link
canal to connect the two rivers to take the water on the Indian side to augment
the flow of the Ganges and its own needs and those of Bangladesh.
The proposal was preposterous for many reasons and Bangladesh
under both military and civilian regimes never took this seriously except as an
Indian ploy to vex us and divert our demand for more share of the water of the
Ganges. They have brought this age old
proposal that Bangladesh has in the past, on bipartisan basis, rejected as
dangerous to its existence for reasons they alone can explain. If this project
materializes, India would succeed in damning or diverting waters from the major
common rivers, the Ganges, the Teesta, the Brahmaputra, and the
Surma/Kushiyara. Recently, India has forced into Bangladesh to withdraw the
water of another cross border river the Feni River. The act infuriated President Ershad so much
that he led a long arch to Feni to protest the reprehensible act as he did to
protest the failure of India to sign the sharing of the water of the Teesta.
Indian actions are strange and difficult to fathom. What is
stranger is the fact that there are many in Bangladesh who do not see anything
unusual in such actions by India and refer to those who criticize these Indian
actions as people who do not want well for Bangladesh. They hold the view that
the openings that India has given Bangladesh in trade is going to bring such
huge benefits that what India does or does not do on Teesta/Brahmaputra/border
killings would not matter all. They of course point to the US$ 1 billion soft
loan and India’s promise to make us as the connectivity hub of the region to
overlook what India is doing or not doing on rest of the bilateral issues.
There is bad news for those who cannot be motivated to think ill
of India no matter what because of the rich economic promises they think India
is offering us. In fact, my friend who was not happy with me for my critical
views on India for its failure to deliver told me that till end of February,
Bangladesh had exported an additional US$ 600 million to India benefitting from
Indian decision to give Bangladesh duty free access on a number of RMG items. My
friends who are in business have told me that recent policies of India are
enhancing our exports. However whether few hundreds of millions of extra US $
or a billion would be enough to satisfy India’ denial to give us our legitimate
demands on water, border and other issues is very doubtful.
The serious issue here is one of trust. In the past, India has
promised Bangladesh many things but has always found one way or another to
break its promises. India recently banned export of cotton to Bangladesh
because of low production. The ban was later partially withdrawn not for our
sake but for pressure from Indian cotton growers. Bangladesh depends for 35% of
its cotton needs on India and a ban has the potential to cripple our
RMG/textile sector. The ban should alert us to think how much we can depend on
India to deliver.
Those who look at economics as the engine to drive
Bangladesh-India relations have a lot on their plates to convince the people
about what India really has in mind. The public mood has turned against India
quite clearly. There were some good signs that the Indians were concerned with the
changing mood in Bangladesh and were due to send their Foreign and Finance
Ministers to Bangladesh. The visits were supposed to take place last month. Has
India lost interest in Bangladesh or perhaps taken us for granted to consider
it un-necessary to explain its failure to deliver on Teesta, Tippaimukh, Feni
River and now the river linking project that
Bangladeshis feel will turn Bangladesh into a desert? Perhaps the
Indians are complacent because we have amongst us those who are helping their
cause by highlighting the promise of economic gains and no
The writer
is a former Ambassador to Japan and Egypt
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