HM. Ershad’s visit to New Delhi: Is India changing its
Bangladesh policy?
Holiday
August 31st., 2012
M. Serajul Islam
The recent high profile visit of
former President HM Ershad to India was surprising and intriguing. He and the
Jatiya Party have been playing the “India card” more aggressively since the
disappointing visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Dhaka in September last
year than the BNP. Then of course are his military background and the general
belief in the country that as a politician he cannot be trusted that raises questions
why the Indians treated him the way they did.
Some political analysts have argued
that he was invited by the Indians to convince him not to abandon the Awami
League as he is threatening to. New Delhi feels that the AL is in a tight
political corner with its general failure in governance and therefore would
need the support of the Jatiya Party that has the potentials to emerge as a
third force in the next general elections.
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs
(MEA) however has given a different explanation, one designed to show India as
the great champion of democracy, a country that is not interested in
interfering in the politics of any of its neighbours. The MEA spokesman Syed
Akbarruddin said that HM Ershad’s visit is “part of our ongoing engagement with
the democratic and multi-party polity of Bangladesh” in an attempt to end
speculation in political circles about the visit.
On the face of it there is no reason
to question the Indian explanation because Bangladesh is a multi-party democracy.
However it is the way that New Delhi has conducted relations with Bangladesh
in the past that makes it difficult to accept
the MEA explanation. In the history of Bangladesh-India relations, the Indians
have always shown a clear preference from among the many political countries in
the country. New Delhi has always preferred to deal with an Awami League
government in Dhaka. When in opposition, New Delhi did not leave anyone in
doubt in Bangladesh that it wanted the party to be back in office.
The relations between Bangladesh and
India have always been friendlier when there has been a Congress party in power
in New Delhi and an Awami League government in Dhaka. Even when there has been a non-Congress
government in India, New Delhi has shown special friendship to an AL Government
than a non-AL Government in Bangladesh. In fact, the common knowledge in
Bangladesh is that India and its political parties are not interested
in any other political party in Bangladesh other than the AL.
Therefore the sudden interest of the
Indians in reaching out for the democratic polity of Bangladesh does not seem
to fit with the trend they have followed in Bangladesh-India relations over the
past 4 decades the two countries have been conducting relations. In fact, when
Pranab Mukherjee visited Dhaka in February, 2009 as a Special Envoy of the
Indian Prime Minister, he declined a request of the BNP for a meeting with
Begum Khaleda Zia on the excuse that he was hard pressed for time. He however
had time to meet the Army Chief General Moyeen U Ahmed and also spend a few
hours in Dhaka University on that day long trip to Dhaka!
On analysis therefore the argument
that the Indians invited HM Ershad to give him a message from the highest
political level in India to remain with the Grand Alliance to help the Awami
League win the next elections appears to be a better explanation of the visit
than the one given by MEA. However, upon his return to Dhaka, the former
President stated in the media that the JP would go for the next elections
independent of the Grand Alliance that belies the argument that the Indians
wanted the JP to remain with the Grand Alliance. If they did, Indian request
from the highest political level to remain with the Grand alliance, if given at
all, seems to have had no impact upon the former President.
Then a few other things that the
former President Ershad has said in his media briefings that suggest that the
reason for inviting him to New Delhi is more subtle than what many are
speculating and may be more in line with MEA’s explanation but not for simply
reaching towards the democratic multi-party polity but for different reasons. HM
Ershad said upon his return from the Indian capital that New Delhi wanted the
next elections in Bangladesh to be free and fair. One newspaper report on his
media briefing mentioned in that New Delhi also wanted the next general
elections in Bangladesh to be “independent” in addition to being free and fair.
If the former President has been
truthful in what he said, then there is reason to believe that the Indians are
subtly changing their Bangladesh policy. If the Indian President and Prime
Minister have told the former President that they want the next elections in
Bangladesh to be free , fair and independent then they are not really backing
the Awami League that wants to hold the next general elections in Bangladesh
under an interim government to be headed by Sheikh Hasina that the BNP has dismissed, a move that everyone
else except the hardcore AL supporters believe would neither be free nor fair.
In fact, when Pranab Mukherjee visited Dhaka in May
this year, he gave early hints about the subtle change in New Delhi’s
“Bangladesh policy.”After the meeting with Begum Khaleda Zia, Pranab Mukherjee
said that India is interested in relations with Bangladesh in sharp contrast to
his view about the opposition in Bangladesh when he was in Dhaka as a Special
Envoy. The conclusion that many in Bangladesh have drawn on this statement was
that New Delhi was sorting out its options in Bangladesh, no longer confident
that the AL would be returning to power in the next general elections.
Kolkata’s Daily Telegraph has given
an analysis that seems closer in explaining why HM Ershad was given such a high
profile visit supporting the change in New Delhi’s “Bangladesh policy”. In a
report on the eve of the visit it wrote that New Delhi has been getting from
“nearly all visitors barring those sympathetic to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina”
a warning “to India against “putting all its eggs in one basket”; a warning
that Dhaka may have a new ruling alliance other than the Awami League after the
next elections and that it is time for New Delhi to prepare itself to deal with
political parties other than the AL.
The Indians, in fact, realized that a
change in its “Bangladesh policy” would be necessary as soon the paradigm shift
in Bangladesh-India relations that started with the unilateral concessions to
India by Sheikh Hasina hit the hard rock on India’s failure to sign the Teesta
water sharing agreement. On return from that visit, New Delhi realized that the
spanners injected by Mamata Banarjee and the BJP would not enable it to give Bangladesh
theTeesta Deal and the land boundary agreement that although signed in Dhaka
but needed ratification by parliament, in the short term. It also realized that
without giving these commitments, the AL led Government would be unable to give
India continued support on security. As for the land transit, the Bangladesh
Government angrily withdrew that as
retaliation for India’s failure on the Teesta.
For New Delhi, it never came so close
to clinching its interests in Bangladesh as it did on the eve of Manmohon Singh’s
visit to Dhaka. If only the Teesta Deal would have been signed, land transit
would have been a done deal and India could have felt confident of long term
and sustainable support of Bangladesh on both issues crucial to India’s
national interests, namely security and land transit.
The recent communal riots in Assam
with charges of ethnic cleansing where the Bodos killed a good number of
Muslims raised the scepter of renewed rise of terrorism on the Bangladesh-India
border. On Bangladesh-Myanmar border, the Rohingyas are again being subjected
to ethnic cleansing where Bangladesh’s decision to close its borders have
created new possibilities of terrorism and insurgency. The Indians are viewing
these developments with concern and need the same commitment from Bangladesh as
it had received in the period leading up to the visit of Manmohon Singh to
Dhaka.
At a time when New Delhi feels it
needs Bangladesh’s support and cooperation the most, the government in
Bangladesh is unable to show the same enthusiasm towards India for failing to
keep its commitments. While India has watched this change in Bangladesh
Government, its ability to do the needful is not in the hands of the
government. New Delhi would need time to resolve the issues with Mamata
Banarjee and the BJP to keep its commitments with Bangladesh.
At the same time, New Delhi has also
watched a change in Bangladesh in the AL and the BNP. As a consequence of the
positive side of the negotiations that Bangladesh and India has carried out
till relations stalled after Manmohon Singh’s visit, the BNP’s anti-Indian
rhetoric has considerably toned down. It is now willing to deal with India on a
quid pro quo basis having seen the prospects of Bangladesh becoming a regional
economic hub. India has taken note of this change in the BNP. There has been
highest level exchange of letters between New Delhi and the BNP. In fact, Begum
Khaleda Zia has also been extended the same invitation as was extended to the
former President HM Ershad and in fact is close to making the trip to New
Delhi. Clearly, New Delhi is talking with the BNP not just at the highest level
but also at the operational level.
At the same time, New Delhi is no
longer confident that the AL led government is in a position to meet Indian
needs and interests not just because of India’s failure on commitments but more
importantly because on its own failure in governance where its popularity has
gone down significantly in the country and at the same time, it has chosen for
some unbelievable reasons to annoy powerful countries; leaders and institutions
abroad. The Indians are particularly worried that the AL is adamant to create
serious political conflict over the issue of the next elections that is making
it chances of returning to power uncertain. The Indians feel disturbances over
the elections would cause the type of political situation in Bangladesh that would
in consequence pose serious threats to its own security.
Unfortunately for New Delhi, it does
not seem like the Awami League is any longer listening to India as it used to
before the visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Dhaka that was a honeymoon
period in Bangladesh-India relations and from India’s point of view, the best
ever. In that period, the Bangladesh
Government was in the giving mood and considered friendship with India at any
cost as its most important goal in governance. The Foreign Minister and the two
Advisers of the Prime Minister who were constantly in public view praising
India during the honey mood period have quietly slipped into the background.
In such a developing political
scenario in Bangladesh, India is sorting out its options aware about the
dangers of putting all its eggs in one basket. It has used President Ershad to
give a message to the Awami League that it can no longer take for granted that New
Delhi in future would look upon it as its only option. New Delhi has also sent
the message to the Awami League that it should resolve the un-necessary
problems that it has caused in domestic politics and that it should make all
out efforts to hold the next elections in a manner where the opposition would
also participate. At the same time, it has also sent the message to the
opposition, particularly the BNP that it would be willing to deal with it if it
comes to power through free, fair and independently held elections.
If indeed, New Delhi deals with
Bangladesh as its MEA has explained and as developments hint then the Indians
could be assisting Bangladesh’s tryst with democracy find its course. The world
has failed to encourage the AL that its course of action in domestic and
international politic would bring more conflict for Bangladesh and push the
country towards disaster. The Indian policy for reaching out towards the
multiparty policy of Bangladesh could bring the AL back to its senses for
notwithstanding the recent developments,
the AL still has enough common sense to know that losing New Delhi is
something that they cannot really afford. It just needs to be hit on the head.
The visit of HM Ershad and Khaleda Zia’s to follow has been designed to achieve
this objective.
The writer is a former Ambassador to Japan.
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