DAILY SUN
10 FEBRUARY, 2013
M. Serajul Islam
The
second anniversary of the Arab Spring in Egypt that fell on January 25th
was not an auspicious one. Instead of warmly celebrating the end of
dictatorship and flowering of democracy, Egyptians saw riots in the streets
where more than 50 people were killed by the security police for demonstrating
against the government. Egyptians who are not supporters of the Muslim
Brotherhood (MB) led government that constitutes a significant part of the
country’s population are shuddering at the prospect of the ghost of the Mubarak
era returning. Outside Egypt those who had expected Egypt’s Arab Spring to
usher in democracy not just in Egypt but to become a tsunami for the region’s
absolute rulers are worrying if Egypt’s tryst with democracy is becoming still
born.
The
ominous developments surrounding the second anniversary of Egypt’s Arab Spring
are still evolving although the worst seems to be over for this time. It has
claimed so far over 50 lives in the hands of the same dreaded police and
security forces that had terrorized all sections of Egyptians under the Mubarak
era; the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic forces as well as those that are
fighting them now, the liberals, the Christians and others who were not
supporters of the Mubarak regime. These forces have been at odds with the MB
after the latter reneged on its promises not to contest the Presidency after
they had helped it win the parliamentary elections in November, 2011-January,
2012.
Later
their differences sharpened when the MB started to go alone in exercising power
that came to them when their candidate Mohammad Mosri became the President in
an election he won marginally (51.7% against 48.3%) against the candidate
backed by the liberals/Christians, supporters of the Mubarak regime and the military in June 2012. The new President activated the
parliament that the military/judges had annulled on technicality. He also
succeeded in removing the powerful Defense Minister and Army Chief Field Marshal
Mohamed Hussein Tantawi together with senior officers of the armed forces that
made his presidency look better in public perception. The President also was
able to earn USA’s admiration for his role in resolving the Israel-Hamas
conflict as well as in the region where he backed the USA against Syria.
President
Morsi ran into conflict with his opponents when he hurried the draft
constitution through a constituent commission where his Brotherhood members and
the Islamic groups in parliament were the architects after his
secular/Christian and other opponents stayed from participating in the
commission. The President adopted the draft constitution in the face of the
protests of his opponents who went to the streets over it, claiming that it was
not drafted with due consideration to the secular and multi-cultural roots of
the Egyptian society. One reason to hurry the draft through was to beat the
deadline that was set by the judges.
The
President argued that unless he had adopted the constitution before the
deadline, the commission would have ceased to exist and the process of adopting
the country’s constitution would have been inordinately delayed. He also argued
that the people would have the right to accept or reject the constitution in a
referendum to which the draft was placed on December 15th. The draft
was approved in the referendum by 67% of the votes cast but its credibility was
dented because only 30% of voters turned out to vote thus making the support
for the referendum only 20% of the actual voters of Egypt. Additionally, to add
to the discontent of his opponents, Mohammed Morsi assumed powers that set him
above the law that many claimed had given him powers no less than the
discredited President Mubarak.
Thus
by the time the second anniversary arrived, the politics of Egypt was highly
charged with sentiments against the government of President running very high.
Egyptians not belonging to the camps of Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic groups
were up in arms against the government, demanding that the constitution adopted
by the referendum be scrapped. In the week of the second anniversary, a court
in Suez passed death sentences on 21 for the “soccer deaths” of last year that
added fuel to the fire. Riots erupted in 3 cities, Port Said, Suez and Ismailia,
three cities critical to Egypt as these are located on the side of the Suez
Canal.
The
President clamped emergency for a month in these 3 cities, called in the
military and the police and security. The army remained calm and professional
and also assisted the opponents of President Morsi to demonstrate. The police
and security forces were different and they showed the same mindset that they
had done during the Mubarak era and killed over 50 demonstrators/rioters.
Nevertheless, the army whose powers remain deeply entrenched, and in the
current turmoil keeping its distance, showed its concern over the latest
disturbances when the Army Chief and Defense Minister (under both the Mubarak
era constitution and the newly adopted one, the Army Chief automatically
becomes the Defense Minister) warned about the possibility of “collapse of the
state” that gave rise to serious worries in Egypt and abroad that Egypt’s Arab
Spring was being derailed.
There
is no doubt that President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood have made serious
mistakes, many arising out of their inexperience as well as their impatience to
establish their authority on Egypt’s government. Although the move to hurry through the
constitution caused the perception that the Brotherhood would enshrine its
ultra Islamic agenda in it; in reality the new constitution does not include
any such contents. There is nothing like governance according to Shariah law in
the constitution that many had feared. The discarded constitution had grounded
Egyptian law in the “principles of Islamic law”. The new constitution has
grounded Egyptian law in the “principles of Sunni Islamic law.”
Nevertheless,
independent analysts who have studied the new constitution closely have
concluded that the dissatisfaction of the opponents to the new constitution is
based less on ideological issues. They feel that while the MB could interpret
the constitution’s reference to Sunni Islamic law to take the country to the right,
the language is also flexible enough to argue for individual rights too. The
new constitution guarantees Islam, Christianity and Judaism freedom of worship
but is silent on the other religions. Women’s rights have also not been
specifically guaranteed. The new constitution also calls upon the state and society
to uphold family and moral values causing concern that such ambiguity could
“open the door for vigilante pressure from self appointed moral guardians. The
military’s position is the new constitution has been retained unchanged as was
in the discarded constitution.
The
way the MB handled the task of writing the constitution, endorsing it and then
sending it to referendum caused apprehension among the MB’s opponents because they were afraid that it would
impose its ultra-conservative agenda on Egypt. The decision of the President to
assume powers above the law as well as declaration of emergency and calling the
military and the hated policy/security forces to quell the riots and
disturbances that resulted in deaths further accentuated apprehensions that the new regime was
following the path of President Mubarak’s absolute rule. However, on analysis
of the new constitution, a lot of the apprehensions of the opponents that it
will be ultra-conservative in contents do not appear to be well grounded.
Most
importantly, the regime has demonstrated that it is willing to compromise and
learn from its mistakes. The President Mohammed Morsi has relented on his
decision to assume powers above the law. When the opposition had taken to the
streets during the recent disturbances, the President had offered to sit and
discuss with them to find a way out of the impasse. In fact, the MB has so far
shown enough indication to find out the democratic way out of Egypt’s current
political problems. As the cliché goes, it needs two to tango. Egypt’s
opposition must show the spirit of negotiations by withdrawing from the streets
and talking with the Government. Meanwhile what Egypt is seeing at the moment
are the pangs of the birth of democracy for the Arab Spring has ensured that
Egyptians have overcome their fear of power of the autocrats and their
democratic yearnings cannot any longer be subdued by force.
The writer is a
retired career Ambassador and Chairman, Centre for Foreign Affairs Studies,
CFAS
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