Daily Sun
March 10, 2013
M.
Serajul Islam
The
recent state visit of the Indian President to Bangladesh was a rare honour
shown to the country. It was Mr. Pranab Mukherjee’s first overseas visit upon
becoming the Present, the first Bengali ever to live in Rastrapati Bhavan. Unfortunately
what could have been a truly worthwhile visit where the whole of Bangladesh
could have given the Indian President a heartwarming welcome ended in
disappointment as the visit took place while the country was under hartal
called by the opposition.
It
was just not the hartal that was the dark cloud over the visit; the fact that
the Indian President was in the country while the Jamat was on a rampage and
over sixty Jamat activists killed together with a few law enforcing personnel
made the environment surrounding his visit even darker and gloomier. These
facts notwithstanding, the Indian President was received with the 21 guns
salute and all the fanfare that goes with a state visit. He met the President
and the Prime Minister and important Ministers including the Foreign and the
Finance Ministers called on him. His other important engagement apart from
visiting his in laws place in Narail was his address in Dhaka University’s
convocation ceremony.
In
the Indian system of governance, the President is a figure head and not usually
expected to get involved in formulation and execution of policies related to
foreign affairs. His role is merely to complement the initiatives of the
government and in the context of the few foreign visits that an Indian
President takes, merely to be of assistance to the government’s foreign policy
initiatives. Therefore, in the context of his just concluded visit to
Bangladesh, his visit was not intended to take any new initiative in
Bangladesh-India relations or to execute any existing initiatives in these
relations.
Nevertheless, Pranab Mukherjee is not just any
Indian President. He assumed the office after a lifetime as a politician in the
Congress party where he held party and ministerial posts at the highest levels.
He is very well respected in the party where his influence is extremely well
established and very deep. So is his respect across the party divide. In the
context of Bangladesh, he is very important because many of the issues with
which Bangladesh is negotiating with India to carry relations forward in line
with the vision of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for a paradigm shift in
bilateral relations are the ones with which the Indian President had been very
deeply involved before vacating his post as the Finance Minister of India to
become the Indian President.
Thus,
there were a lot of expectations in Bangladesh that the visit of the Indian
President would not be merely a ceremonial one. Further, the visit came after a
number of very important visits from India to Bangladesh. The Indian Home
Minister was in Dhaka in January and signed with Bangladesh the extradition
treaty. The Indian Law Minister came before him and the Indian Power Secretary
after him. In the context of carrying forward the bilateral relations, the
Indian Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai came on a visit early in February that
was followed immediately afterwards by a visit by the Indian Foreign Minister
Salman Khurshid. These flurry of visits hinted that the Indians were serious
about jump starting the bilateral relations that were stalled after the Indians
failed to deliver the Teesta water sharing deal during the visit of the Indian
Prime Minister to Dhaka in September 2011 and ratifying the land boundary
agreement (LBA) thereafter.
News
emanating from official sources in New Delhi in recent times was hinting that
the Indian Government was close to resolving both the outstanding issues. The
Indian Foreign Secretary and the Indian Foreign Minister made positive
references to both the issues in Dhaka. The Indian Foreign Minister said in
Dhaka that the Indian Cabinet had approved the draft bill for amending the
Indian Constitution that would be necessary to implement the addition protocol
that was signed in Dhaka during the visit of the Indian Prime Minister to
ratify the LBA. He further said that the bill in this regard would be
introduced during the current budget session of the India parliament and the
BJP that was opposing the ratification would relent. He had further said that
New Delhi had made progress with Mamata Banarjee on the Teesta Water sharing
deal as well.
As
a consequence of these developments, Bangladesh expected that the Indian President
would state something specific and definite than what the other visitors from
India had stated before. Unfortunately, he did not. In what has come to the
media from the interviews he gave to the media as well as what transpired in
his talks with the Bangladesh Prime Minister and other Ministers who called on
him, both issues are still suck in the stage of promises to Bangladesh. The
Indian President said he expected that LBA to be ratified in the current
session of the Indian parliament. He did not mention much about the Teesta
agreement. He nevertheless assured very forcibly that India would always be
with Bangladesh as a friend as it had in 1971 and 2013 would be another
beginning. Two members each from the BJP
and Trinamool Congress were included in his delegation to give the impression
that both the parties were on board for resolving the two outstanding issues.
Despite
the President’s assurances on LBA, the news that came from the BJP sources
while the Indian President was in Dhaka was a pessimistic one. The BJP said
that it would oppose the LBA ratification bill in parliament. If the BJP does
so, the ratification bill will be defeated because the Congress and its allies
do not have the 2/3rd majority in the Indian parliament that would
be necessary to do so. On the Teesta, the situation in Paschim Bangla is
getting more difficult for its Chief Minister Mamata Banarjee to concur with
New Delhi. Mamata Banarjee is openly playing the Muslim card in her province
where her Trinamool party is sliding. She can hope to keep her hold on power if
only she has the Muslim votes. A section of the Muslims are already infuriated
over the domestic issues concerning Jamat in Bangladesh. At a time like this,
it is very unlikely that Mamata Banarjee would be in a position to please
Bangladesh because that would upset her Muslim vote bank for the Islamic
fundamentalists apart; PM Muslims in general are not favourably disposed
towards Bangladesh.
The
Indian President’s visit thus has added little to carry forward
Bangladesh-India relations. His visit did however add some controversy over the
failure of Begum Khaleda Zia to meet him on the plea of security difficulties.
The excuse of the BNP leader was of course not a convincing one. Nevertheless,
the BNP could have its own reasons in the not keeping the date with the Indian
President. First, New Delhi has overtly played its cards in Bangladesh’s
domestic politics over the Shahabag youth movement knowing full well stand.
Second, the BNP has a past issue that must have influenced it to decide against
the meeting. In 2005, the Indians refused to attend the SAARC Summit when the
BNP was in power over political disturbances/hartals in Dhaka, thus
embarrassing the government in the country as well as abroad. The disturbances
in Bangladesh were far worse where more than 50 people were killed in one
single afternoon just days before the Indian President arrived in Bangladesh.
Further, the whole period of the visit of the Indian President coincided with
violent hartal all over the country. The BNP must have sensed New Delhi had
clearly chosen its favourite in Bangladesh and thus a meeting between Begum
Khaleda Zia and the Indian President would be futile.
When
Begum Khaleda Zia was enthusiastically welcomed in New Delhi not too long ago,
many independent observers in Bangladesh had expected that India would not
choose between the parties in the country. They were also encouraged that the
BNP was beginning to see the positive sides of bettering relations with India
on a reciprocal basis. Unfortunately, without apportioning blames, it is
regrettable that this positive development in Bangladesh-India relations has
been given a serious jolt by the Indian President’s visit to Bangladesh.
Nevertheless, one aspect of the visit that the media downplayed was his advice
that the political parties in Bangladesh should sit and discuss a way out of
the current difficult political situation. Knowing the President’s personal
influence over the Bangladesh Government he could do Bangladesh as well and
Bangladesh-India relations a world of good if he carried forward this advice
through the various channels available to him.
The
writer is a retired career Ambassador
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