8th November 2013
M. Serajul Islam
The Times of India carried an article by Subhir
Bhaumik in its issue of November 1 on the turbulent politics in Bangladesh. He
has urged New Delhi to militarily intervene in Bangladesh to keep the Awami
League in power so that the BNP and its fundamentalist allies do not assume
power! The article would have been trashed except for the paper that carried
it. The Times of India is not just any newspaper; it is an opinion maker in New
Delhi. Therefore it is unbelievable that it published this article. Democratic
India’s leading newspaper has advocated New Delhi to intervene in a small
neighbour militarily so that there would be no democratic elections there and a
regime that serves its interests would retain power.
The card the writer used to encourage New Delhi to
intervene in favour of the Awami League is the one the ruling party has played
as its final one to deal with the opposition’s demand for election under the
caretaker government (CTG), which would, as politics has emerged in Bangladesh,
ensure the BNP to assume power. Subhir Bhaumik’s argues: “As Bangladesh
slides into a violent imbroglio, India appears nervous over the future of its
east and northeast which are afflicted by violent statehood movements and
insurgencies. It cannot afford a hostile government in Dhaka. This, in a way,
revives the pre-1971 scenario where a similar situation forced India to back
the Bengali insurrection and militarily intervene in East Pakistan, braving
threats of a US naval intervention.” There is an eerie similarity between the
fears that Subhir Bhaumik raises; the line that the ruling Awami League is
taking to create misgivings in the minds of the people about the BNP and reports
in Indian media and pro-AL media in the country. Something deceitful and
calamitous is afoot that should wake up the people of Bangladesh because the
sovereignty of the country is under threat.
Is it a kite flying?
Is The Times of India kite flying? The ruling party
has made clear that it has little or no intention to give the BNP what it
wants. It does not need a crystal ball to predict why. Public opinion polls,
credible ones, have shown that the BNP’s acceptance among the people is on the
rise, too dangerously for the ruling party’s comfort. A daily Prothom Alo poll
in September had shown that 50.6% people supported the BNP. Another PA poll
taken before the city corporation elections had predicted the humiliating
defeats of the AL backed candidates. The poll conducted by Daily Star/Asia
Foundation taken most recently has shown BNP’s acceptance rise to 55% against
28% of the AL. The DS/AF poll is alarming for the AL. A 55% support in
Bangladesh’s once past the post system of election would mean over 250 seats in
the parliament. The AL is also facing the elections as the incumbent where in
the country’s history; incumbents have all failed to win. Therefore the AL has
lately been playing its last card against the BNP which is an attempt to wrap
the card of terrorist/Islamic fundamentalist on its back in order to explain to
the people why the BNP could not be trusted and at the same time, convince the
country’s foreign friends that they need to back the AL if they want to stop
Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism. The news appearing in Indian media that
Islamic fundamentalism and ISI are active is therefore designed to help the AL
in making its case with the people.
Subhir Bhaumik is clearly a part of this effort, to
create a scare to encourage people towards the AL. In the last five years, the
AL led government has cooperated with India on security like no past Bangladesh
government. Subhir Bhaumik has underlined this fact in his article correctly.
As part of this security cooperation, Bangladesh and Indian
security/intelligence agencies have carried out determined efforts to dismantle
ISI footholds in Bangladesh. There is reason to believe that this Indian task
is not yet complete. India needs another AL term to complete the task.
Therefore, this sudden spate of news in the Indian media about rising Islamic
fundamentalism together with Subhir Bhaumik’s article in the Times of India
smells rat.
BAKSAL-type elections
So far, the BNP has not stepped into the trap that has
enhanced the ruling party’s insistence for BAKSAL type elections. It is afraid
of facing the BNP in an “inclusive” election because it knows that it would
lose such an election comprehensively as the opinion polls have clearly hinted.
In India, a section backed by its intelligence that Subhir Bhaumik represents
is also of the same opinion. Thus his article has been written with a myopic
vision where he has gone into denial over the present political realities in
Bangladesh. He therefore did a good job in undermining the efforts of the US Ambassador
and his trip to New Delhi whose government is favouring “inclusive” election in
Bangladesh. He gave the impression that Dan Mozena’s trip to New Delhi made the
Indians unhappy and that he lied in the media when he said that India and the
US were on the same page on the political situation in Bangladesh for which New
Delhi took particular umbrage.
Washington’s page is clear to everyone. It wants a free, fair and inclusive national election. The US Secretary John Kerry has written letters to the two leaders to this effect. Therefore if Washington and New Delhi were on different pages, it would mean New Delhi supports a BAKSAL type of election in Bangladesh. However, an unnamed Indian External Affairs Ministry official had said after Dan Mozena’s meeting that the two sides agreed on “inclusive” national elections and the need for vigilance on terrorism and acts of insurgency that leads to conclude that there is difference of opinion in New Delhi between its political leaders and the intelligence sources. Subhir Bhaumik’s attempt to destroy the credibility of the US Ambassador by describing him as a member of the BNP Executive Committee was intended to pre-empt an US-India initiative for “inclusive” elections. His distortion of geo-politics underlines his ill intention, which is to ensure that the political impasse in Bangladesh should not be resolved by “inclusive” national elections that the overwhelming majority of the people of Bangladesh want. His article would thus find positive vibes only in a section of the ruling party that wants to remain in power by “hook or by crook.”
Facts distorted
The article was not restricted to distortion of facts
and geopolitics. Its theme is demeaning to Bangladeshis. Subhir Bhaumik wrote
that if Washington is using all within its means to further its national
interests (that is not borne out by facts), India should carve out its
interests for which he thinks even military intervention is an Indian right! He
thus concluded that Bangladesh is like Sikkim and foreign powers could play
with it like a football!! Subhir Bhaumik has also gone into denial over
US-India strategic partnership unveiled two years ago by President Obama for
containing China in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. There are too many other
elements of this strategic partnership that cannot be examined here but to
think that New Delhi would go to denial over these to install AL by military
intervention would be possible only if India’s political leadership too were in
similar denial as Subhir Bhaumik. Then what about India’s case to be a
Permanent Member of the UN Security Council? Would that be enhanced if India
militarily intervened in a smaller neighbour to circumvent the democratic
process and install a client to serve its narrow national interests?
Subhir Bhaumik’s reference to 1971 is the most absurd part of his article. The Awami League is in a political mess today where any comparison to what its position was in 1971 is ridiculous. The credible opinion polls have underlined that not to be the case with 70% and more of the people supporting “inclusive” national elections against the AL insistence of one-party BAKSAL type elections. Therefore if India intervened militarily now, it would be intervening in favour of an Awami League that is at opposite end to what its position in Bangladesh was in 1971. Today, the AL is determined upon retaining power by holding elections without the opposition whose demand for “inclusive” elections has the support of the majority of the people. The Awami League today is engaged in suppressing the will of the majority by force whereas in 1971 under the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, it had united the country’s 75 million people. Therefore India’s intervention in Bangladesh now would be like India intervening in 1971 on behalf of the Pakistani military!
Intelligence directs Delhi’s policy?
If the Awami League has a few friends like Subhir Bhaumik, it wouldn’t need as, the expression goes, enemies to destroy itself. The BNP could stand by the sideline and watch its demise. Subhir Bhaumik has written his piece in complete denial of everything except the single-minded devotion of seeing Indian military in Dhaka. He has forgotten how India has left the AL in the lurch with betrayal on the Teesta and LBA deals and unabated killings in the border that has left even those who support the Awami League disappointed and frustrated. If India were to now intervene for AL militarily and install it in power, it would be the end of India’s acceptance in Bangladesh in any form and the death knell of Awami League where the two could stay together, hand-in-hand, shoulder to shoulder, not by India’s military intervention alone but by that military stationed in Bangladesh permanently by making Bangladesh another Sikkim.
That of course is not going to happen although in the short term, if insanity grips New Delhi, Bangladesh would have to fight another liberation war all over again to defeat a possible Indian military invasion as it did with the Pakistani military invasion. That is the concern of many in Bangladesh who would like to remember India for its 1971 role because so far where all friends of Bangladesh have urged the AL led government to talk with the opposition to hold “inclusive” national elections, India has not yet entered into the equation. It appears that New Delhi is under pressure of its intelligence agencies who need another AL term for a permanent foothold in Bangladesh that cannot be realized because the AL’s chances of another term in power democratically has become impossible. The intelligence agencies are therefore urging their political leaders to see their way and place the AL in power “by hook or by crook”.
The writer is a retired career Ambassador
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