Bangladesh at Crossroads

Published in The Daily Star, September 13, 2008 BANGLADESH is at cross roads; lessons learnt since 1/11 could unite us towards a better future or a failed one if they are ignored. This government came at a time when the BNP and the AL, in pursuing their respective self-interests, had set Bangladesh on course to becoming a failed state. The BNP was scheming to return to power. The Caretaker Government (CG) headed by the President led the public to believe that the BNP would come back to power through unfair means. The AL was determined not to let that happen and did whatever was necessary towards that end. In the seesaw battle that emerged, governance had become impossible. 1/11 put an end to the politics of disorder and destruction and brought back sanity to governance and public life. The CG started off well tackling corruption fairly and in a transparent way after AL (one time) and then BNP (three times) had earned for Bangladesh Transparency International's title as the most corrupt nation on earth. People's hopes were raised when the CG incarcerated Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina together with some top leaders of AL and BNP in their drive against corruption, including Tareq Zia who had become a widely talked about person in that context. Leading businessmen and bureaucrats who were perceived to be corrupt were also arrested. The government's steps for reform of important institutions like the Election Commission, the Anti Corruption Commission, etc. to make the fight against corruption sustainable were widely welcomed by the people. The so-called reformists within the BNP and the AL were also encouraged to openly call for reform in their parties, acknowledging that neither practiced democracy in their internal affairs. Somewhere during taking these good measures, the CG lost its sense of proportion. The ACC and the NBR openly and the Joint Task Force silently went after far too many people than they could handle, forgetting that perception of guilt and proving it in a court of law are not the same thing. They also perceived wrongly that corruption could be weeded out completely by a CG with a limited tenure where such a responsibility has not been entrusted upon it by the constitution. There was another fundamental mistake they made believing that in a country where the relationship between income and prices in the market is irrational and illogical public servants could be totally honest. The CG's popularity nosedived with Sidr that created havoc in the economy. Around then, prices of essentials that Bangladesh needed to import like rice and edible oil rose sharply in the international market. The price hike that occurred as a consequence hit the majority of the people very badly, particularly the fixed income group. The government's explanation about the international market did not convince anybody because when prices in the international market fell, there was no impact on the domestic market. Prices of essentials produced locally also rose. In Bangladesh's history prices of essentials never rose so quickly and so steeply and the average people never suffered (and are still suffering) as much as they have under the CG. The business community that could have eased the market did little because this government had summarily dismissed them as corrupt. This government's attempts to manage politics also failed. First, it failed with its minus-two formula when the two former Prime Ministers refused to leave the country. Then it failed to create a new political grouping by trying to break the two main parties. Then it encouraged the main parties to break from within which too failed. Its attempt to form national government was also just an idea that never took wings. The CG, which explained emergency as a civilian government with military in the wings to aid it when necessary, did not leave anyone in doubt that it was the military exercising real power as the latter openly talked about their “vision” of democracy and foreign policy. The government also never resolved whether it was a CG or an interim government and behaved like either to suit its purposes. The Chief Adviser seldom came across in public imagination as one in control. Advisers chose the media to show that they are in charge and, without realizing their folly, even informed the public through the TV about “negotiations” to release political leaders whose cases are in court! Fear of falling prey to the anti-corruption dragnet paralyzed the economy and civil bureaucracy. The CG realized the mistake but took too long to create the Truth and Accountability Commission (TAC) to jump-start the economy and to give the bureaucracy confidence. The TAC now languishes without work. Those the TAC could have given reprieve to revive the economy are facing court cases and thus cannot come before it; others, including the bureaucracy, see more logic to wait it out. People who supported this government wholeheartedly started losing confidence in it by the time Sheikh Hasina was granted bail. The manner of her release gave a wrong signal to the public; that its fight against corruption was weakening and that it was seeking a “safe exit” from the mess it made with governance. When Sheikh Hasina was arrested, she was not even shown common civility as a woman and former Prime Minister. When she was released on bail, she was treated as a presumptive Prime Minister with four Advisers calling on her within hours of her release and the CA making a courtesy phone call to her! Sheikh Hasina's release was followed by speculation in the media that Khaleda would also be released. While this remains pending, Tareq Zia has been granted bail despite ACC's unsuccessful efforts with the High Court, giving the impression that it alone wants to pursue the anti-corruption agenda - a feeling that has been strengthened with most of the high-profile politicians and businessmen arrested in the drive against corruption now free on bail. The people's disappointment notwithstanding, the CG has achieved notable successes. First, it has exposed the corrupt face of politics and politicians, creating conditions for reform from within. Second, it has exposed corruption in a large number of politicians in both BNP and the AL that will convict many of them, making them ineligible to contest in the next elections. This will give the political parties the opportunity to nominate honest people for the next election. Third, because of the awareness it created among the public on the corruption issue, political parties will feel discouraged to nominate people with image problem. Fourth, The ACC has established itself as an institution that will weaken the nexus of corruption among the politicians, businessmen and bureaucrats. Finally, the EC has made changes in the electoral laws that will make future elections fair and more transparent. The nation stands at cross roads; its politics, whether one likes it or not, back in Hasina and Khaleda's hands as a result of the mess that the CG has made by stepping on every section of the society, minus the armed forces, with its anti-corruption agenda and failure to control the market. The AL and BNP have not broken apart. The so-called reformists are now trying their best to be forgiven for daring to oppose their leaders. The electoral alliances are shaping up exactly in the same manner as in the pre 1/11 days. The CG has no other alternative but to allow the new dynamics in politics to develop and let the elections decide the future of Bangladesh for people's patience, and also that of major donors, will not last if for any reason the elections are delayed. Within that prospect, there is reason to hope that Khaleda and Hasina will not conduct politics in their old style, which was doing pretty much what they pleased. The public awareness the CG has created will put pressure on the next government for good governance. Reforms in the EC will make the next elections more transparent. The strengthened ACC will be a better watchdog on all types of corruption, including those in the election process. Both parties will find it difficult to agitate over election results because they are now aware that mindless agitation benefits no one, is fatal for the country, and the public is against it. The new faces expected to enter the next parliament in place of many old ones who would not be able to contest for legal reasons will give the Parliament a much better chance to work so that political parties could deal with their conflicts there, making way for hartal and vandalism in the streets much less frequent. Such politics could even encourage bipartisanship on national issues like economic development, fight against corruption and terrorism and foreign policy. Finally, the so-called reformists could also feel encouraged to tell their leaders when they go wrong and not when they are incarcerated so that politics could be free of sycophancy and Hasina and Khaleda could see reality better although their recent behaviour does not make one optimistic on this count. The time under the CG may thus not be wasted time. It has created possibilities for the nation to hope. It now depends on Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina and their parties to let the nation achieve these possibilities. Otherwise, the day when Bangladesh becomes a failed state and a hot bed for Islamic fundamentalism may not be that distant.