Will the Long-Awaited Development Materialize?
A major event occurred on December 29, in Bangladesh, the third largest Muslim state in the world with a population of 150 million: Over 86% of 80 million eligible voters elected the Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina to power, ending two years of a military-backed emergency rule.
In many senses, it was a watershed election in a developing country, but was largely ignored by the international press because there was no "breaking story" of violence here.
Bangladesh is known for its poverty and frequent natural disasters that visit the country on a regular basis. It is hardly given the credit for the spirit of its people for fighting to overcome poverty and natural disasters.
In 1988, when Bangladesh faced one of the worst floods ever known in human history, foreign aid workers and journalists were astounded by the resilience of the Bangladeshi people. A lot of this resilience and fighting spirit is derived from their faith in Islam as a "complete code of life" for 88% of Bangladeshis.
Back to Democracy?
There were speculations abroad that democracy would not return; that there would by violence and disorder in Bangladesh during the period of the military-backed rule since January 11, 2007.
Before the emergency, Bangladesh had an unfortunate tryst with widespread violence and corruption where the two main parties, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the party in power before the military backed government, and the Awami League (AL), contributed to bringing Bangladesh close to a failed state with mindless corruption that earned Bangladesh Transparency International’s dubious title of the most corrupt country in the world and anarchy in the streets.
The people thus welcomed emergency quietly. But the military, taking advantage of abrogation of the constitution, indulged in excesses while pursuing the drive against corruption under which the two former Prime Ministers, Sheikh Hasina and Begum Khaleda Zia, both women, were incarcerated with a large number of politicians, businessmen and bureaucrats.
Although the military backed government had just the constitutional responsibility to create a level playing ground for free and fair elections, it indulged in extra-constitutional roles such as attempting to break the two main stream political parties to create a "king’s party" to which to hand-over power that failed eventually.
Their excesses led to spiraling of prices of essential commodities that affected the people very harshly, a predicament further aggravated by an unfavorable international market from where the government had to import essential commodities such as rice, edible oil, etc.
The military-backed government did one commendable thing for returning democracy to Bangladesh. They carried out efficiently the task of registration of 80 million voters and issued them photo identity cards. International pressure and people’s impatience with the military-backed government led to the general elections in Bangladesh. The BNP that bore the brunt of pressure of the authorities in their anti-corruption drive was in disarray.
In the BNP, those who tried to curtail the powers of the party chief while she was in jail were denied nominations for the parliamentary elections. The AL, in which also senior party leaders tried to curtail their party chief’s powers, took these so-called reformists on board and went to elections united.
In addition, the AL that had 14 parties as allies from the 2001 elections, with all these parties in name only, also formed an alliance with the Jatiya Party of former President Ershad that had won 7.6% of total votes cast in 2001. As a result, the AL triumphed in a manner that was unbelievable, winning 233 seats alone and 262 seats with its allies.
The BNP that had won 197 seats in 2001 was routed with only 32 seats. In fact, the BNP closely beat the Jatiya party that won 30 seats. The BNP’s allies, the Islamist parties of which Jamaat e Islami was one, failed even more disastrously. In fact, BNP alliance with Jamat, whose members committed war crimes in 1971, and its indulgence in extreme corruption when in power contributed to its election trouncing.
Government in Action
The results surprised the AL for winning it so overwhelmingly; the BNP for losing it so catastrophically; and the outside world for the peaceful manner it was held. Subsequent developments were also surprising and interesting. In announcing the cabinet, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina left out almost all her senior colleagues who were in her cabinet when the AL was in power in 1996-2001 naming women in key ministries of Home and Foreign Affairs.
In another departure, Sheikh Hasina appointed a number of Advisers with Ministerial rank and amended the Rules of Business so that she can appoint more Advisers who can also sit in cabinet meetings, making them de facto cabinet ministers. For the first time the opposition attended the opening session of parliament that augurs well for transition although immediately afterwards they abstained on seating arrangement.
The AL government has its hands full with the election promises it made. There is a "Vision 2021" to transform Bangladesh into a middle income nation. The party is committed against corruption, a popular task undertaken by the military-backed government. It has also pledged to try those who committed war crimes during Bangladesh’s war of liberation in 1971.
The economic agenda is an achievable one, for Bangladesh has both the human and natural resources needed for such an agenda. Unfortunately, Bangladesh has faltered in the past in sustainable economic development to become a middle income country because of failure of politics that has seen the army in power frequently as in January, 2007, when the military officials introduced an emergency rule and installed a civilian government of their choice while holding power behind its back after the BNP and the AL had made governance impossible.
Bangladesh is the envy of all South Asian countries with no ethnic, regional or religious divide but has squandered her natural advantage over rivalry between the two main parties that was the worst at the leadership level with Shaikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia treating each other as the nemesis of the other. Parliament was made non-functional and politics was dominated by conflict and violence. Thus the new government’s economic agenda will depend mainly on how well politics is managed for which cooperation between the government and the opposition will be crucial.
Fighting Corruption
The new government has made its intentions clear on corruption by naming ministers with clean records. This notwithstanding, people who hold public offices in Bangladesh are paid very little while exercising enormous power thus exposing them to the lures of corruption. The corruption agenda will therefore be a hard one to implement.
On trial of war criminals, the government is making preparations for setting up a Commission. The demand for the trials is one deeply entrenched in the psyche of the people, but it will extend the government’s ability to the utmost to hold it in a credible manner, because these crimes were committed nearly 4 decades ago.
The war criminals are allegedly mostly from Bangladesh’s Jamat-e-Islami party. The government therefore will have to be careful so that just war criminals are tried and not the Jamat. Islam in Bangladesh is based upon liberal traditions being influenced by Sufism and secularism and has fundamental roots in society. Even then, the religious fundamentalists whose number is not very large could whip up trouble by using the slogan that Islam is in peril that could have grassroots support unless the government is careful and sensitive.
Foreign Policy
In foreign policy, this Government is expected to seek closer cooperation with India which is in the country's geopolitical interest.
The Indian foreign minister paid a visit to Dhaka this February as an Envoy of his Prime Minister.
Two agreements were signed during the visit. The first was the Agreement on Investment Promotion and Protection, and the other was the Bilateral Trade Agreement.
Tough issues such as sharing of waters of common rivers, trade and maritime boundary from Bangladesh’s side, cross border security, and land transit from the Indian side were the main focus of discussion between the two countries.
The two countries have these issues unresolved mainly on lack of trust and political will, with Bangladesh accusing India of violating international law particularly on water sharing.Only political will on both sides can help achieve sustainable friendly relations.
Bangladesh has over 4 million people living in the Middle East whose foreign exchange earnings are crucial for the country’s economic development.
This factor, added to Bangladesh’s Islamic base and heritage, will make the need for seeking closer ties with Islamic countries a major focus of the new government’s foreign policy.
The new government was quick to condemn the recent carnage in Gaza and will continue to back the Palestinian rights.
The December elections have set Bangladesh on course for transition to democracy with great scope to economically transform into a middle income nation. However, political accommodation between the AL and the BNP will hold the key to this transition and transformation. There is now both hope and apprehension in Bangladesh.
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