Indian FM's Visit: What Came of It

Published in The Daily Star, February 21, 2009

THE Indian Foreign Minister's day long visit to Dhaka on February 9th ended with more questions than having answered any. The media hype before the visit about possible agreement on transit and joint task force to combat terrorism created a great deal of interest in many quarters. While land transit is an old issue, the joint task force is a new one floated by Sheikh Hasina soon after becoming the Prime Minister that the BNP interpreted as an attempt to allow Indian security and intelligence presence inside Bangladesh. In the end, neither agreement was signed although from press interview given by Mr. Pranab Mukherjee, it was clear that on task force on terrorism, India did not have much interest.

Land transit and terrorism in fact figured significantly in Mr. Mukherjee, formal talks with his counterpart Dr. Dipu Moni and in his meetings with other Bangladesh leaders. These are issues of interest to India. Bangladesh's major concerns, namely sharing of water of the common rivers; maritime boundary and land boundary demarcation were touched and allowed to pass. The visit took place during the dry season of the Ganges flow with India also building a barrage at Tippaihmukh.

The visit resulted in the signing of two agreements. One was on Investment Promotion and Protection and the other the Trade Agreement. The first is a standard one that Bangladesh has signed with a number of countries. It is a reflection of the nature of relationship between the two countries that this agreement was not signed before. The Trade Agreement was merely renewal of an agreement that was last renewed in 1980 and initially signed during the government of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

The two Foreign Ministers held a joint press conference but did not reveal anything of substance that would give a thrust to move relations ahead. Mr. Pranab Mukherjee took a philosophical view of things, suggesting that sincerity and commitment are more important than creating a new framework because one such is there already in the SAARC framework while skirting Sheikh Hasina's proposal for a South Asia task force to combat terrorism. The Bangladesh Foreign Minister was caught off guard when an Indian journalist asked her about her reaction to the perception that Bangladesh is being used by Pakistan as a buffer state to launch terrorist acts upon India. Her response or the lack of it disappointed the Bangladeshi journalists covering the press conference and drew brickbats from the BNP.

Mr. Mukherjee called on Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at her official residence. Bilateral issues were discussed at this meeting. A different spin was given by the press secretary of the Prime Minister to the latter's proposal for a South Asian task force to combat terrorism that was discussed at the meeting. The press secretary said that the Indian Foreign Minister reacted favourably to the proposal that contradicted what Mr. Mukharjee said at his press conference. Sheikh Hasina's proposal on the task force on terrorism had created a very favourable impact in India and had drawn very positive response from the Indian Home Minister Mr. Chidambaram and the veteran BJP leader Mr. LK Advani because they believed that this task force would be bilateral that would give India a handle to deal with their perception that terrorists are using Bangladesh as a sanctuary with assistance from Pakistan's ISI. As the Indians became aware closer to Mr. Mukherjee's visit that Sheikh Hasina meant a regional approach to the problem, they shifted away from their initial positive reaction and Mr. Mukherjee reflected this shift when he responded half-heartedly to the proposal.

During his meetings outside the official talks, Bangladesh government officials communicated to the Indian Foreign Minister a list of six or seven outstanding problems that India needs to resolve first for Bangladesh to be flexible on the land transit issue. The list he was given verbally included resolving the water sharing issues; maritime boundary; demarcating the land boundary; solving the Talpatty and the Muhurir Char issues; and free access of Bangladesh goods to India without any negative list. The officials candidly told Mr. Mukherjee that unless India resolved these issues, the land transit request would be difficult to fulfill.

The visit helped Bangladesh to bring out the land transit into open forum for rational discussion. The issue on land transit is now being focused by the Bangladesh trade bodies with more rationale on whether to accede to the Indian request or not. These bodies are privately suggesting that, with the other trade issues remaining unresolved, it would be suicidal for Bangladesh to let India use land transit to provide the Seven Sisters with goods from the mainland at cheaper prices; that would destroy industries in Bangladesh that are using this natural advantage to meet the needs of these provinces. The Bangladesh beverage company Pran is figuring prominently in their arguments. These bodies favour two alternatives on the transit issue. First, that India should come up with an economic plan to convince Bangladesh that her territory would not be used for economic development of Seven Sisters leaving her out alone. In other words, these bodies think that there is not much meaning or money for Bangladesh to be just a toll collector. Transit should be a part of an economic plan for benefitting Bangladesh together with the Seven Sisters. Till the Indians come out with such a plan, the best that Bangladesh could consider giving India is transshipment where only those goods would be allowed to pass through Bangladesh in which she does not have comparative advantage.

Of late Indians are trying to project issues of interest, to them as economic, where Bangladesh will gain by relenting. It is hardly the case. Whether relations go forward or not is entirely dependent on political will as Mr. Mukherjee himself made partly clear when he emphasized on sincerity and commitment to solve the issue of terrorism. It was good to see that Bangladesh is getting close to the point where she can call a spade a spade. The list that was given by the Bangladesh officials that India must resolve before she gets land transit points to the fact that for the first time Bangladesh is taking a stand that makes sense. This notwithstanding though, Bangladesh should have come up strongly on the water sharing issue. The Farakka Dam on the Ganges has all the forebodings of turning north Bangladesh into a desert and an environmental hazard. The proposed barrage at Tippaihmukh that will dry up the flow of Surma and Kushiara will turn northeastern Bangladesh into the same thing. Bangladesh should have raised strong concerns on this issue of critical national interest. There are still too many Ministers talking on critical foreign affairs issues with a visible lack of coordination. In fact, the Commerce Minister and the State Minister for Foreign Affairs contradicted each other in the media on the land transit issue. The gesture that Bangladesh made to receive Mr. Mukharji at the VVIP terminal that is reserved for visiting Head of State/Government in view of the Indian FM's current status in New Delhi has been a welcome departure from protocol that showed maturity. The failure of Mr. Mukherjee to meet with Khaleda Zia because of “time constraint” did not fit to India's democratic image and left behind a few raised eyebrows.

India is soon going to have general elections. Mr. Pranab Mukherjee therefore did not come to Dhaka expecting any breakthrough and the hype generated in Bangladesh was created by the media here. This notwithstanding, the visit proved one thing though; that even the AL Government that has been installed with such a huge majority will not move ahead so easily on the Indian requests till India makes the first moves. If anything, the visit has underscored the point that Bangladesh-India relations are faltering on politics not economics. On India's part, she is still not willing to change her mindset that all problems with Bangladesh must be resolved bilaterally. It is time she looked for a regional or sub-regional approach, particularly on water sharing and terrorism issues.