Short-term prospects and long term consequences
The Holiday, May 10th., 2012
M. Serajul Islam
Nevertheless,
the Government that was apprehensive that the Secretary would take a
hard-line for the snubbing on the twin issues of Dr. Mohammad Yunus and
Grameen Bank was relieved that these issues were not raised in the
Secretary’s meeting with the Bangladesh Prime Minister or at her media
briefing. Instead, there were some warm statements on Bangladesh’s
performance on crucial issues of social and economic indicators of
growth. The Government also received high marks for its zero tolerance
on terrorism. It was happy also that the Secretary expressed some harsh
words against opposition led hartal that has placed it in a very
difficult predicament in governance.
There were no surprises with the way the visit of the US Secretary
of State ended. The government’s efforts to give the visit a positive
spin were misplaced. No TICFA agreement was signed or any security pact
for the region. The request for duty free access of Bangladeshi RMG
products to the US market was ignored. The partnership agreement that
was signed was on the cards as it was offered to Bangladesh during the
discussions of the US Assistant Secretary Andrew Shapiro last month.
Although the BNP was admonished for hartal, it was nevertheless
happy because the Secretary made it clear that the US wanted the next
elections in Bangladesh to be held in a manner where all parties would
participate. She also urged the ruling party to hold consultations with
the opposition both in the parliament and outside on the issue. The BNP
has been demanding this from the ruling party and its current political
agitation is to pressure the AL to do this precisely. She strongly urged
the Government to ensure an end to extra-judicial killings and
disappearances, issues that are now concerns of not just the BNP but the
nation. The presence of Ilyas Ali’s daughter at the meeting of the
Secretary with Begum Khaleda Zia was therefore significant.
Govt. worried
On balance, however, the Secretary left the ruling party much more
worried than the opposition. Notwithstanding what she said to the
government and the opposition, she visited Bangladesh in pursuance of
her country’s regional and global interests. If she made any party happy
or worried, it has resulted as collateral advantage or disadvantage in
pursuing US’ new security strategy for Asia and the Pacific which was
the real reason for her visit to Bangladesh.
That was evident from observations that the Secretary made about
India while addressing the press and media after her official talks with
the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister of Bangladesh. She
encouraged Bangladesh to tread a regional path in company with India to
assure its future. To play that role, she urged Bangladesh to strengthen
and consolidate its democratic roots. It was also in this context that
she urged both the ruling party and the opposition to negotiate a
democratic way out of their present impasse and hold the next general
elections so that all parties would be able to participate. It was also
in this context that she strongly advised the opposition to shun the
hartals and return to the parliament for peaceful resolution of their
current problems with the ruling party.
Powerful leaders like Hillary Clinton do not do anything without
any reason. Their visits overseas are all undertaken in pursuance of the
objectives of their foreign policy. These leaders, in pursuance of
their goals, are constantly in touch with one another across national
boundaries both formally and informally all the time. Hence the fact
that the US Secretary of State landed in Dhaka two days after the
Japanese Deputy Prime Minister and was in Dhaka at the same time as the
Indian Finance Minister were not simple coincidences.
Corruption core issue
The Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Matsuya Okada offered to
Bangladesh the promise of investment and economic assistance. He did
not, however, do so without preconditions. He urged the government to
enter into dialogue with the opposition to resolve the political impasse
and encouraged the BNP to participate in the next general elections. He
also did not fail to underscore the issue of corruption and urged the
Government for showing no tolerance on the issue, underscoring the fact
that Japanese laws related to overseas aid make it imperative that the
process is free of corruption and is transparent.
In other words, he urged the Government in unequivocal terms that
the democratic process in Bangladesh must be allowed to function
unhindered. The US Secretary in her discussions with the Bangladesh
leaders re-stated the same views as those of the Japanese DPM. Her words
were in fact more focused. After expressing US’ choice on “betting on
Bangladesh”, she said that it “must make the hard decisions necessary
for the rule of law, for transparency.” She added: “We do not want to
see Bangladesh flagging or faltering. We want to see democracy flourish
in Bangladesh.”
The Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee also followed the same
line on the need to ensure the democratic way to function in Bangladesh
without obstacles. In this context, he made two significant departures
from India’s stance in Bangladesh’s politics under the present
government so far. He met the opposition leader after mysteriously
failing to do so when he visited Dhaka as a Special Envoy in February,
2009. Second, he said that India has no favourites in Bangladesh; that
it would be willing to work with any government that is elected by the
people of Bangladesh.
The main underlying message of all the three visitors has thus been
the same. They have asked the ruling party and the opposition to patch
up their differences and shun the path of conflict in favour of the path
of discussion and consultation for resolution of political conflicts.
It is this common message that leaves little doubt that there has been
prior coordination for the three visits.
The interest of these 3 countries for ensuring success of democracy
of Bangladesh has nevertheless a serious underlying message. It is not
that these countries have in the past encouraged Bangladesh’s democratic
process. They have done so in the past. The fact that their top
leaders have come to Dhaka to deliver the message at about the same time
is what suggests that they have their own common interest in seeing
democracy thrive in Bangladesh and that there is an important message in
their common support for the democratic political process in the
country.
Geopolitical location
US officials depicted the US Secretary’s trip to Bangladesh that
has been taken together with China and India as part of a larger US
“pivot” for greater US engagement in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. The
main reason for this engagement which is in fact a new security
strategy is the containment of China. Towards this policy of
containment, the US and India have already entered into a strategic
alliance whose details are being worked out. Recent changes in Myanmar
have encouraged both the US and India to try and cut off China across
the land connecting South Asia with Southeast Asia. In this scheme,
Bangladesh’s importance has enhanced because of its geopolitical
location.
Additional factors that have encouraged US, India and Japan to take
a joint stand on democracy in Bangladesh have been the prospect of
Bangladesh emerging as a regional connectivity hub as a consequence of
India’s offer to help Bangladesh to become such a hub in exchange of
land transit and security assurances. The recent gains of Bangladesh in
the Bay of Bengal as a result of the ITLOS verdict have opened for
Bangladesh promises of discovering hydrocarbons that have also enhanced
the sudden importance of Bangladesh to the US, Japan and India.
Nevertheless, on the face of it, the Secretary’s visit should make
the people of Bangladesh happy for she has impressed upon the ruling
party and the BNP what they expect them to do for the sake of the
country. The Secretary has not given the ruling party any assurance that
it would use its influence in any way to help the Bangladesh government
with its current problem with the WB over the Padma Bridge funding
although it is not unknown in Bangladesh that the US Secretary could
help Bangladesh on this count even without lifting a finger. She has
thus clearly underlines US’ zero tolerance on corruption that is what
the people of Bangladesh want. At the same time, she has sent a firm
message to the BNP that it must shun the path of hartal which is equally
another major demand of all Bangladeshis.
In the short term, the visit of the US Secretary of State therefore
promises good omen for Bangladesh provided the ruling party listens to
her. The fact that the Government would be seen to be accepting the
demands of the opposition if it listens to the US Secretary of State
however make such a prospect somewhat uncertain. The Prime Minister has
shown zero tolerance to any demand of the Opposition thus far in her
second term. There is however one good reason to hope that it would be
different this time because the US has India on its side. The government
would find it difficult to refuse India.
Dhaka’s concern
In the long term, there is however good reason for Bangladesh to be
concerned. The eventual game plan here is to isolate China in the
region and Southeast Asia. In such a containment policy, US have its
global interests, India its regional and Japan its defence and
historical reasons to get together. Bangladesh has none of these
reasons.
Bangladesh has painstakingly built excellent relations with China
that began when the country was just another developing country to one
where it is today, though not yet given the Super Power status, more
than one for it is showing all the potentials to overtake the only Super
Power, the US, in not that distant a future. China has proven a very
dependable ally to Bangladesh. By moving to the US-India security axis,
Bangladesh would be wasting all the good work of its diplomacy and
getting caught in power play involving super and major powers that would
put our interests at risk.
It was not without significance that the US Secretary met Dr Yunus
and Sir Fazle Hasan Abed after she had set aside the politicians. She
wanted their views on our politics that she could depend upon that was
no doubt a poor assessment of our politicians. Both clearly told the
Secretary that the country’s future depended on holding the next general
elections under a system of caretaker government. That is also what the
US wants and with India with it, the chances of the Prime Minister
acceding to hold the next elections in way that would bring the BNP to
the polls is betting better.
The Secretary departed Dhaka reminding everyone that she “highly
respects” Dr. Yunus and that she hopes “to see it (GB) continue without
being affected or undermined by any government action.” Clearly, she did
not abandon her friend Dr. Yunus or forgot the actions of the
Bangladesh Government to humiliate him and discredit the GB.
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The writer is a former Ambassador to Japan and Egypt.
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