At a private discussion among friends, the question that we all
asked one another was why the US Secretary of State was visiting
Bangladesh. Like the story of the seven
blind men looking at the elephant, each one of us had a view that differed from
the other.
So far for such an important visit, the only one who is upbeat is
the US Ambassador who might be knowing
something that neither the government nor the opposition seems to know. It is not
that US Secretary of State visits Bangladesh regularly. In fact, the last visit
of a US Secretary of State to Dhaka was that of George P Schultz in the era of
President Ershad.
Furthermore, the present US Secretary of State is someone who in
terms of influence she exercises in US politics and the international political
scene is extraordinarily powerful. For such a powerful individual to land in
Dhaka practically without any notice is something that begs explanation. In the
case of Hillary Clinton, the only issue that anyone in Bangladesh can think of
the cuff to explain the visit is the case of Dr. Mohammad Yunus and the Grameen
Bank in which she took a great interest.
The way the Bangladesh Government spurned the request of Hillary
Clinton and President Obama for an honourable exit to Dr. Yunus made a lot of
people speculate that the US Government is very unhappy with the present
government of Bangladesh. Many have speculated that she is so angry that she
has used her influence to stop the World Bank from funding the Padma Bridge to
get back at the Prime Minister and the Bangladesh Government.
The surprise and unpreparedness of the Bangladesh Government was
amply reflected by its reaction or the lack of it to the visit. Normally for
such an important visit, the Government should have reacted very enthusiastically.
The reasons are obvious. The US has the power to turn Bangladesh into a middle
income country quicker than the ruling party expects. It is the biggest market
for our RMG exports that have given Bangladesh a good measure of economic
success already.
Bangladesh now has the ability of competing with the best in the
important RMG sector globally. A little support from the US for more market access
of its RMG products could have a dramatic impact on our economic development.
Then there is the US’ influence over the international financial institutions
such as the World Bank and the IMF; institutions that hold keys to our
accelerated economic development. At a time when the ruling party is literally
caught in political quicksand over its failure to deal with a host of domestic
issues, the visit could have been used as a heaven sent opportunity to gain a great
deal of political mileage..
Instead, in the days following the news that Hillary Clinton was
coming to Dhaka, the Government did not come out with any reaction at all
except matter of fact statements from the Prime Minister’s Office and the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Government failed to show any enthusiasm for
the visit. Instead, it seemed to be in a state of shock that she was coming to
Dhaka, perhaps not knowing what to expect.
The last occasion that someone of this government met Hillary
Clinton was when Foreign Minister Dipu Moni met her at her office at the State
Department a few months ago. When she returned home, she did not show any signs
of having had a great visit. In fact, many speculated in the media and in
private that in the official discussions, the US Secretary was curt and had communicated
her personal displeasure and that of the US Government for the manner that
Bangladesh Prime Minister had treated the request on Dr. Yunus and Grameen
Bank.
There is no reason to believe that the US administration has
allowed the GB issue to be forgotten. Every official visitor from Washington to
Dhaka following Dr. Yunus’ unceremonious departure from GB has made it a point
to visit GB and raise US’ concern about what happens to the institution. When
the US Under-Secretary of State Wendy Sherman visited Dhaka last month, she too
took a trip to Manikgang to visit a GB institution, no doubt underscoring for
the Bangladesh Government that the US administration has not forgotten what the
Government of Bangladesh did over the institution in the context of
Bangladesh-US relations.
Therefore one can understand the diplomatic inertia or numbness or
perhaps a sense of fear of the unexpected on the part of the Bangladesh
Government in reacting to the Secretary’s visit. But then a US Secretary of
State does not undertake an overseas visit without a reason. Therefore, in this
instance too there must be a good reason. In the discussion among the friends
with which I started the piece, we tried to find that reason. One of us pointed
out that the Indian Finance Minister would also be in Dhaka at the same time.
He did not think this is a coincidence.
Another friend referred to the very recent visit of the Assistant
Secretary for Security and Military Affairs to Dhaka. This reference had all of
us thinking, particularly in the context of the offer that the US had made at
the meeting for annual dialogue between the two countries on security matters.
The US Ambassador in Dhaka in press meeting after the visit of the Assistant
Secretary has also harped upon security and security related cooperation between
USA and Bangladesh.
We concluded from these issues in our discussion that the
Secretary is coming to Dhaka with security on top of her agenda; in fact we
thought that this would be her only agenda item. In recent times, the US and
India have entered into a strategic partnership to contain China’s expanding
influence in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Bangladesh’s geopolitical location
makes it desirable from the security interests of the US-India axis to take
Bangladesh on board. In Myanmar, the US is making inroads diplomatically and
India, strengthening its influence. At the same time, Myanmar is starting to
distance itself from China. These developments suggest that in the emerging
strategic interests of the US and India, Bangladesh has become important.
In getting Bangladesh to agree to be a part of the US-India
security strategy against China, the US could throw some incentives. Even a
review of the Padma Bridge funding by the World Bank could be on the cards.
Already, the two countries are preparing a draft of the Trade and Investment
Cooperation Agreement (TICFA) that could possibly be signed during the
Secretary’s visit.
If indeed the Secretary is coming with the security agenda and
would be willing to provide incentives, she would be visiting Dhaka at a very
inopportune time. Politically the ruling party is in a tight corner with a list
of serious mistakes. India has also lost its credibility across the board.
Therefore the Secretary would be making a serious mistake to encourage the
Bangladesh Government to sign a security agreement against China with India on
board. It would push Bangladesh closer to the edge from becoming a failed
state.
Instead the Secretary would be doing the US-Bangladesh relations a
great favour instead if she would encourage the Bangladesh Government to hold
the next elections in a manner where the opposition would participate. She could
use the well acknowledged influence of India in general and Pranab Mukherjee in
particular over Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for achieving this objective.
The
writer is a former Ambassador to Japan.
No comments:
Post a Comment