NATO Summit in Chicago and the war on terror in Afghanistan
Daily Sun
June 3rd., 2012
M. Serajul Islam
The NATO Summit in
Chicago, the home town of the US President, was the first NATO Summit in USA since
the one in Washington in 1999. With the US President in a re-election year with
chances of another term not assured, the NATO Summit met with eyes focused on
how much political mileage President Obama would be able to extract from the
war in Afghanistan that is one of the key issues upon which the US voters would
vote in the Presidential elections on November 4th.
In fact, the Chicago
Summit was billed as one that would set the road map for Afghanistan after
withdrawal of US and NATO combat troops and how the allies would be engaged in
Afghanistan after the withdrawal in 2014. In Europe, there is already a war
fatigue and most countries are impatient to get out of Afghanistan. The change
of guards in France has further enhanced the mood of other European nations to
withdraw.
In USA too, the mood is
against keeping combat troops in Afghanistan any longer. In fact, the need of
revenge in the hearts of most Americans for the terrorist attacks of 9/11 that
had killed 3000 Americans for which they held Osama Ben Laden responsible was
served when US Navy Seals killed him last May in his Abbotabad hideout. The
killing of most of the top leadership of Al Qaeda that has helped turn it into
a much less formidable terrorist outfit has also made the average American less
interested in continuing the war in Afghanistan. The mounting death tolls, with
over 2000 US troops killed so far together with 1000 more allied troops, have
made most Americans yearn more for bringing the troops home without further
delay.
Nevertheless, in an
election year, President Obama has to tread a fine path to ensure that his
handling of the Afghan war does not land him in trouble in the elections.
Before becoming the President, he had opposed the war in Iraq and was also in
favour of ending the war in Afghanistan. Upon assuming office, he accepted both
the wars in the same spirit as his predecessor. In fact in Afghanistan, he sent
more troops than there was when President Bush was in charge. He wanted to end
the war on terror by claiming victory not just by killing the top Al Qaeda
leadership including Osama Ben Laden, he also wanted to hound the Talibans out of Afghanistan and leave the
country in the hands of the Afghans capable of running the country
democratically and also able to deal effectively with security.
Unfortunately the US and
its allies have not been able to ensure a Taliban free Afghanistan their
success against Al Qaeda notwithstanding. In fact, after more than a decade
long war on terror in Afghanistan, the Talibans continue to remain a potent
force there. Many apprehend that once the US and NATO combat troops withdraw
from Afghanistan, the Talibans would be able to make easy meat of the
government of Hamid Karzai that they would leave behind to lead the country. In
view of such an eventuality, the US has directly encouraged the Karzai
government to hold talks with moderate Talibans in order to bring them to the
mainstream of democratic politics and break the strength of Taliban.
The initiatives with
Taliban have not been successful. The emergence of the Haqqani terror network
in Afghanistan has added to the worries of the US. These worries have led
President Obama to initiate the Strategic Partnership Agreement with
Afghanistan under which the US would remain in Afghanistan for 10 years after
all foreign combat troops withdraw in 2014 to assist the Afghan government with
financial aid and training so that the good work against the terrorists over
the last one decade and of course the huge financial and human costs incurred
so far do not all end in failure with just the deaths of Osama Ben Laden and
his associates.
The US would need similar
commitment from its NATO partners to implement its plan and vision for a
post-withdrawal Afghanistan. It was with this objective in mind that the US
President led his country in the NATO Summit. He asked of his NATO colleagues a
road map for Afghanistan. His colleagues however were not upbeat. France’s new
president Francois Hollande was a stumbling block. He has just won an election
with promise to bring France’s 3500 troops in Afghanistan quickly. In Chicago,
he reiterated that stand and said French troops would be back home this year.
In fact, it was only the
US President who was upbeat in Chicago about a post-withdrawal Afghanistan. The
worst news for him came from Pakistan. President Zardari was invited at literally
the eleventh hour.. He however put the spanner on a successful handing over of
security responsibility to the Afghan Government. The Pakistan Government had
halted the container supply route, absolutely critical to US and NATO troops in
Afghanistan to end the combat phase of its involvement in Afghanistan, after
the US air strike in Salala inside Pakistan last November that killed 24
innocent Pakistanis.
The Pakistanis demanded an
unbelievable increase on charges to allow the containers to move from its territory
to Afghanistan; from US$ 250 a container to US$ 5000! However, there were two
even tougher conditions. Pakistan wanted an apology for the Salala attack and a
commitment that it would not carry out any future drone attacks without keeping
Pakistan informed. In an election year, the last two conditions were ruled out
because the Republicans would be critical while the US$ 5000 a container demand
was difficult for US and its NATO partners to accept because it is nothing
short of blackmail.
The only alternative to the Pakistani route is the northern
distribution network which winds its way from
Baltic and Caspian ports through Russia, Central Asia and the Caucasus. This
route would be 21 times costlier than the costs through Pakistan before
the route was closed! To make an early resolution of issues with Pakistan more
complicated, Pakistan has jailed for 30 years the doctor who had helped lead
the US Naval seals to the doors of OBL despite US appeal on the doctor’s
behalf. Without the supply routes opening again, the way the US and NATO wants
to bring the curtain on the combat phase of the war on terror on Afghanistan
would be difficult to achieve.
Thus the NATO Summit that
had met with finding the road map on Afghanistan as the main issue in the agenda
did not make much headway. At this
post-Summit news conference, the President was upbeat and said “We have
delivered…We leave Chicago with clear road map”. His upbeat mood was punctured
when a journalist questioned if he had an agreement with President Zardari and
he was forced to admit in the negative. In fact, the two did not even meet
during the Summit underscoring the current deep differences between the two
countries.
Another journalist
totally shattered any optimism that was left in the President when responding
to his question on premature withdrawal from Afghanistan; he was forced to
admit that “the Taliban is still a robust enemy”. The President then said that
leaving an “imperfect Afghanistan” made sense because then “we can start
rebuilding America and making some of the massive investments we have been
making in Afghanistan here back home.”
Those words left no one
in doubt that US is not just getting ready to withdraw from Afghanistan but
ready to leave it to face the resurgent Taliban! The mood in Europe is no
different and with US showing the way, a long winter is again about ready to
descend upon Afghanistan that should send chills down those in that country who
had believed that the US and NATO forces would end the Taliban rule for good
and put Afghanistan on road to democracy and what follows with it. Hamid Karzai
must have left Chicago worried most of all!
The writer is a former Ambassador to Japan
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