The BNP and India: Positive signs
Daly Sun
June 30, 2012
M. Serajul Islam
A great deal of optimism that was
created in Bangladesh by the AL led Government for a paradigm shift in
Bangladesh-India relations now seems to be fading. Our negotiators are no
longer in public view speaking on the good things accruing for us from
improving our relations with India.
It is a regret that things have not
turned out as our negotiators had expected. Their optimism of Bangladesh
becoming the regional connectivity hub with great economic benefits for instance
is achievable if relations are conducted
on basis of trust. In fact, after giving
India the security commitment and granting it a trial run of land transit,
Bangladesh should have been on track to becoming the regional connectivity hub if
India had kept its part of the bargain.
India’s failure to deliver the Teesta
deal at the proverbial 11th hour forced Bangladesh to withdraw the
land transit deal that is crucial to making Bangladesh the regional
connectivity hub. With it, the prospect of a paradigm shift in Bangladesh-India
relations has diminished. The failure to lift Bangladesh-India relations to a
new level after Sheikh Hasina showed the way has been largely due to the last
minute spanner put by Mamata Banarjee, the mercurial Chief Minister of Paschim
Bangla. New Delhi also did not show the strong political will necessary to lift
Bangladesh-India relations to a new level of mutually beneficial relations.
Although forward movement of
Bangladesh-India bilateral relations have faltered, the benefits of
negotiations have not been completely wasted. India now realizes better that
land transit would help bring a new era of economic development to the eight
northeastern states that are stagnating because they are cut off from the
mainland and are landlocked with grant of land transit by Bangladesh a major
key to their well being. India has already benefited significantly from the
cooperation on security where Bangladesh’s assistance has broken the many
decades old ULFA insurgency. India would
however need continued security cooperation of Bangladesh to sustain the gain
and also to tackle the other insurgencies in the northeast.
Bangladesh has today become better aware
that good relations with India would make it the regional connectivity hub. It has
also become aware that the economic activates that would follow from it would
create the environment of trust to seek the solution of Bangladesh’s water
sharing problems with India where the eventual solution would have to be
regional and not bilateral. The environment of trust would also in due course
take care of the other major problems that Bangladesh has with India such as
the issues of trade, killings in the border and demarcation of the land
boundary.
Unfortunately, Mamata Banarjee’s spanner
halted for the time being the bright prospects towards which Bangladesh-India
relations were moving. In fact, if India had moved in the same speed with which
Bangladesh went ahead, Mamata Banarjee would not have had the opportunity to be
the spoiler of the party. Bangladesh-India relations would have been on way to
the new era that Sheikh Hasina’s unilateral moved on Indian needs of security
and land transit had promised.
Nevertheless, even if New Delhi had
moved fast that would have kept Mamata Banarjee out of the equation, the
opposition of the BNP would still have been a problem. In fact, the BNP would
then have played the role of the spoiler, blaming India of taking from
Bangladesh its critical needs on security and land transit and failing to give
Bangladesh its needs on water sharing, border killings, trade issues and land boundary
demarcation. It would have then taken stand against the Government for “selling
Bangladesh”.
After the forward movement stalled,
the BNP changed its stance. In public, it leaders supported friendly relations with India based on trust
and mutual respect, no doubt moved by the prospects that negotiations between
the two countries brought to the surface before the Mamata Banarjee spanner. In
an interview to the New Delhi based Institute e for Defense Studies and
Analyses, Begum Khaleda Zia has given an interview that is very refreshing for
those who believe and rightly so that India and Bangladesh, for reasons of
history and geo politics, should have the best of relations based on trust and
mutuality.
In her interview, Begum Zia addressed
the two issues critical to India, namely terrorism and connectivity. On
terrorism, she said that the two countries should work together and eliminate
it bilaterally. She also underscored the fact that apart from tackling
terrorism bilaterally, SAARC Regional Convention on Terrorism of 1987 and
Additional Protocol of 2004 provide further framework to tackle and eliminate
all kinds of terrorism.
Begum Zia also allayed India’s fear
about BNP’s stand on connectivity. She assured that the two countries should
not be just concerned at connecting each other; she extended Bangladesh’s hand
to work together with India to connect South Asia with Southeast Asia. She said
that the Look East policy of the two countries should provide the excellent
framework not just for connectivity in South Asia but also connecting South
Asia with Southeast Asia and China and “will facilitate increased trade and
movement of people and ideas amongst all of us.”
Begum Zia of course stressed upon the
need by India to resolve the outstanding issues of interest to Bangladesh to
take relations forward. She identified
these issues as “sharing of the waters of our common rivers, killing of unarmed
civilians in the border areas and a satisfactory resolution of our land
boundary demarcation.” Begum Zia underlined that “the main challenge to further
development of our relations is the lack of confidence and trust among our
people in our relationship”.
She was no doubt alluding to India’s recent
and past failures to keep its promises and commitments without mentioning
instances. Nevertheless, India’s failure to sign the Teesta deal and implementing the land boundary agreement
after signing it during the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Dhaka are fresh in
the minds of Bangladeshis that lends credibility to Begum Zia’s views. In
underscoring the trust element, Begum Zia was however careful in not blaming
India that was quite a departure from the way the BNP has spoken about India in
the past. Quite clearly, the BNP has matured to the point where it is not
interested anymore to play politics with India or blame India for the sake of
blaming it.
The ball is as the cliché goes in the
court of India. Begum Zia’s interview should help encourage New Delhi to
believe that the BNP is also serious for improvement of relations with India as
the AL. Many in Bangladesh were encouraged when Pranab Mukherjee had expressed
at his meeting with Khaleda Zia in early May that India is interested in
relations with Bangladesh and not with a political party. With Pranab Mukherjee
soon to become India’s first Bengali speaking President, this is significant
for if India seriously looks beyond the AL for sustainable relations with
Bangladesh, the prospects of attaining those relations increase immensely.
Earlier, Begum Zia had a very good
meeting with the Indian Prime Minister during the latter’s visit to Dhaka last
September. Quite possibly, it is the encouragement coming from top Indian
leadership that has brought the change in the BNP’s attitude towards India and
the public awareness created by the initiatives taken by Sheikh Hasina.
With BNP now showing positive signs about
better relations with India, there should be less concern in India that the
AL’s term is getting close to an end. India should now resolve its own internal
problems and show the political will that Sheikh Hasina has shown and Khaleda
Zia has promised. The issue for betterment of Bangladesh-India relations now
rests squarely on India’s political will.
The writer is a former Ambassador to Japan.
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