The victory of the Awami League has been hailed worldwide as a victory of secular forces over fundamentalism. While this is a partial explanation of an unbelievable victory, it will nevertheless give the new administration of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina international recognition that could be crucial for success of her Government for making Bangladesh a Muslim majority country with liberal traditions. External support, particularly of Bangladesh's development partners would be extremely important for translating to reality the massive electoral promises of the AL. In this context the image that the elections has created would be very helpful.
Closer to home, India has been elated at the AL's resounding victory. Sheikh Hasina has been warmly congratulated by the Indian Prime Minister. Sonia Gandhi has spoken with her on telephone. The enthusiasm in New Delhi will be even more important for Bangladesh than the positive vive that the news has caused in other world capitals. The reasons are obvious. First, Bangladesh is situated literally inside the belly of India. Second, almost all her rivers that provide the lifeline for her people whose major occupation is agriculture flow from India. Finally, Bangladesh has been restrained from exploring unhindered for hydrocarbons in the Bay of Bengal because her maritime boundary with India is un-demarcated. These factors, among others, make it imperative for Bangladesh's sustained development and well-being to have friendly relations with India. Unfortunately, during 5 years of BNP rule, Bangladesh-India relations have regressed while during the caretaker government, bilateral relations have remained stalled.
While the AL's resounding victory has been welcomed enthusiastically in New Delhi, it is Sheikh Hasina's statement that she would not allow Bangladesh's soil to be used by any terror groups and that she would like a joint task force to be established with India to fight terrorism that has been music to the ears of the Indian leaders. Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said this is “positive” news while BJP leader LK Advani better articulated the Indian viewpoint in a letter to Sheikh Hasina in which he wrote: “The people of India are delighted to read …your categorical statement that your government will not allow the territory of Bangladesh to be used by terrorists and extremist organizations.”
The AL assumes office at a time when the international situation is vastly different from what it was when the party was in power the last time from 1996 to 2001. In between, 9/11 has dramatically changed world politics. First, fighting terrorism and militancy has become the major focus of governments all over the world including India that has been at the receiving end of the misfortunes from such acts. As President Bush hands power to President-elect Barak Obama, the war on terror that he led and fought militarily is now expected to be dealt more through the non-military channels where the new US administration would be seeking partners worldwide. Second, India has since emerged in a very effective manner upon the world scene where it is now the accepted regional leader. During this term of AL, India will have great influence in world politics and it will thus be in Bangladesh's interest to have friendly relations with her.
These are realities that the foreign affairs team of the new Government must focus upon for the future of Bangladesh. One issue that has emerged from the December 29th elections is that the so-called “India factor” had no impact upon voters' choice of parties. The record number of voters has voted on substance such as economics, good governance, trial of war criminals and democracy. In the past, the “India factor” has restrained Bangladeshi politicians in dealing with India objectively because it has been a factor in elections. India, on her part, did not render much encouragement either to the people of Bangladesh towards friendly relations with her by disdainfully scorning Bangladesh's legitimate claims on a wide range of bilateral issues.
LK Advani has put Bangladesh-India relations in perspective by stating categorically that it is not an option but an “indispensible necessity” in his letter to Sheikh Hasina. It is now up to the Indian Government to demonstrate how “indispensible” these relations are by the way they reciprocate to the positive move made by Sheikh Hasina. India's prospects of evolving into a major economic powerhouse on a world scale will depend to a large extent on successfully containing terrorism and militancy that has been recently spreading all over the country. In this context, the area that borders Bangladesh, India's northeast, has been particularly vulnerable. Just after the Mumbai terrorist attacks in November last year, Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram made specific accusations in Parliament that insurgent groups operating in northeast India, including ULFA, have sanctuaries in Bangladesh. Indian Government has in addition also accused Bangladesh Government for permitting Pakistan's ISI to assist the terrorists in India's northeast from inside Bangladesh. Bangladesh government has always denied these accusations. Militancy and terrorism does not serve anyone's purpose for these militants, their initial motives for terrorists acts notwithstanding, often become Frankensteins and their actions in the end affect everyone adversely. Sheikh Hasina's foreign policy aides must now open discussions with their Indian counterparts to, first, remove Indian doubt that Bangladesh has been aiding Indian separatists, and then, to jointly fight this menace so that militants on either side are exposed and brought under the purview of the law.
For sustainable improvement of relations, India of course has the major role to play. India could now show her goodwill on a wide range of unresolved bilateral issues while officials on both sides work out the modalities of the joint task force and build upon the positive move of Sheikh Hasina. Take for example the un-demarcated maritime boundary issue. In a recent seminar organized by the Daily Star on this issue, participants were unanimous that Bangladesh's future lay in her territorial waters where India's counter claims have put a spanner. The Seminar established the fact hitherto little known in Bangladesh that the extent of the area that has been causing problems for Bangladesh with India is but a very small percentage of latter's total territorial waters in the Bay of Bengal. However, the nature of India's claims, supported by Myanmar, is such that it would take away from Bangladesh a major part of her legal claims in the Bay of Bengal, an area that is presumed to be very rich in unexploited hydrocarbons. Although it is difficult yet to assume how India would deal with Bangladesh after her move on the security issue, it may not be very unrealistic to expect that India would demonstrate the political will to resolve the issue of the maritime boundary by taking on board Bangladesh's claims that are both fair and legal.
In fact, it does not have to be the maritime issue upon which India could begin its reciprocal gesture. India could make it on a wide range of other outstanding issues such as water sharing, trade imbalance, etc. where it has denied Bangladesh a fair treatment due to lack of political will on her part. India's reciprocal gesture must nevertheless come quickly because although the “India factor” did not play any role in the elections, there is a perception in Bangladesh that India is not quite as fair a neighbour to Bangladesh as it should have been. It needs two to tango. Sheikh Hasina's move on fighting militancy jointly has set the stage. It is now India's turn to reciprocate beginning with demonstration of political will for resolution of any one of the major outstanding issues that in turn could create the positive environment for dealing with other outstanding bilateral issues on both sides and in the process revive the 1971 spirit. If India fails to match Bangladesh's move in a major way, then the political will shown by Sheikh Hasina's offer could vanish quickly and AL led Government could be left stranded with the blame for being soft on India and the so-called “India factor” could be re-established again.
1 comment:
It's a nice post indeed.
Post a Comment