Friday, January 2, 2009

Some strategic choices for the Awami League

Published in The Daily Star, Saturday, January 3, 2009

WHEN I called a friend whose brother was winning a seat easily with an Awami League (AL) ticket on Election Day, his voice appeared tense. That surprised me. When I inquired why he was tense, he told me that he was worried because the AL was winning much more handsomely and decisively than he had expected in the height of pre-election optimism. He said that would burden the party with expectations from the people that the AL may not be able to fulfill.

My friend's concern is well based for this is an election result for which the AL is not prepared. This will put a lot more pressure on the need to deliver. This is 1971 all over again. In 1971 it was freedom upon which the people cast their faith in Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and the Awami League. This time the message is as focused and intense; a need to rid governance of corruption and make genuine efforts to achieve the dreams of 1971 in terms of freedom and democracy, where those who committed crimes against humanity are punished.

The history of massive election victories in South Asia is not a good one and the one given to the BNP in 2001 must be a stark reminder to the AL that must now make a number of strategic choices to reverse the trend of history. The AL's strategic choices could be made simpler by reflecting on the mistakes made by the BNP in 2001 and avoiding those. The commentary by the editor of Daily Star that appeared on 30th “You will reap as you sow” and similar commentaries/articles in other newspapers could be useful for reflection. Among strategic choices, the AL must take heed that new cabinet must not be the elephant that the BNP created. The Cabinet must be much smaller. The number of Ministers in the US and Japanese Governments could provide useful guide. The new generation provided a powerful impetus to the AL's landslide victory. In choosing the Cabinet, the representatives of the new generation must be given an important share in the Cabinet.

The way the new Prime Minister organizes her office will be as important as choosing a manageable cabinet. In the past, all elected governments laid emphasis upon party in choosing those who were given places at the PMO with the BNP extending this to an extent where the PMO became captive to the party. It is time for the future of Bangladesh to distinguish very clearly that the interests of the party that forms the government cannot take precedence over the interests of the government. In the 1960s, the Congress was faced with this problem and at one time, sent out senior Ministers in the cabinet of Jahwarlal Nehru to the party under the “Kamraj Plan” to balance between the interests of the party and the government. The plan met with failure and the senior Ministers returned to Government. In India, the ruling party has been kept carefully and diligently outside governance ever since. The same is the practice now in all parliamentary systems. This allows the Government not just to be bipartisan but more importantly, also to appear as such.

Such an approach will also help the AL Government tackle the politicization of the bureaucracy that has affected good governance under all the past three elected governments, much more so under the last BNP government. The AL will be inheriting a bureaucracy that is, to put it very mildly, a very weak one. In the past two years the caretaker government succeeded in making it even weaker. Years of indifference to the civil bureaucracy are responsible for the current poor shape of the bureaucracy. The new government will not be able to improve it overnight, perhaps not even during its entire tenure. The new government will have to look into this matter with the seriousness it deserves. Still there is a need to do something immediate to bring this very important institution on the rails, for without an effective civil bureaucracy the new government will find it extremely difficult to bring to fruition many of the expectations of the people. It may therefore be wise for the new government to appoint on contract in key senior government positions such as the Principal Secretary to the PM bureaucrats who have retired from service but still very active and quite capable of serving the country. A percentage of senior positions may be set aside for such appointments as is done under the US system. This suggestion may meet natural resistance from the members of the civil bureaucracy with which many reading this piece may also agree. However, under existing rules, a percentage of posts at the level of Secretary is set aside that the President has the power to fill at his discretion. In the past, this rule has been misused and officers have been promoted from Deputy Secretary to Secretary for political reasons. This rule can now be used, with necessary adjustments, to make appointments at senior positions on contracts from capable retired bureaucrats on a bipartisan basis if possible and qualified expatriates may also be considered for these positions.

In electing the AL, the people of Bangladesh have cast their votes for change similar to the way the voters in the US have done with Senator Obama. Already the US President-elect has set into motion changes that have caught the imagination of the rest of the world. His emphasis on bipartisanship to build the image of USA that took a battering under the neo-cons by taking an example out of President Abraham Lincoln, who, by putting the country's interest first, brought to his Cabinet his bitterest political enemies, could be used by the AL in a limited way in spheres of governance. More important, the new US President would be seeking worldwide partners in dealing with the upsurge of international terrorism and militancy. The new government in Bangladesh is coming to office with clear and unequivocal stand on Islamic fundamentalism by standing firmly on secularism. This message, together with good governance and positive steps towards democratization should be spread through diplomatic channels to Bangladesh's development partners including the USA. That way Bangladesh could fit to the recent positive changes in international affairs like hand in the glove that in turn would make the statement of the US Ambassador in a seminar in Washington prophetic. The Ambassador had said: "There will be no more transformational election in the world this year than the parliamentary elections scheduled for December 29 in Bangladesh”. The Bangladesh voters have set that stage for the new Government to transform Bangladesh in which foreign affairs will play a crucial role in Bangladesh's transformation. The liberal image of Bangladesh must now be made crucial in the country's foreign policy for in an age of globalization, that image will open for Bangladesh more market access for her exports, increased export of manpower and foreign direct investment that are crucial for her sustained economic development.

The new government must thus adopt a paradigm shift in handling foreign affairs and handle it more professionally than has been done under past governments. Towards that, it must choose a Foreign Minister with the intellectual competence to deliver. In the new administration, the Foreign Ministry and the PMO must develop a line of communication where the new Prime Minister must play her role in the process. Foreign affairs must not be left with the PMO to be handled at the level of bureaucrats without the ability or the understanding of issues as it has been in the past.

Rabindranath Tagore had said “we are nearest to the great when we are great in humility”. This quote of the great man holds the key for Bangladesh's future if only the AL takes this message to heart. One is encouraged to hope that this time; the AL will show the nation what it takes to transform a dream from what Sheikh Hasina told her supporters when she became aware of her party's historic victory. She urged them for calm. It is this calm she must show over the next five years to translate the voters' unequivocal verdict on December 29th.

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