Moving Bangladesh-India relations: Reviving Gujral Doctrine is the key

Published in The Daily Star, January 24, 2009

THE Indian Foreign Minister Mr. Pranab Mukherjee is going to be the first high profile foreign visitor to Bangladesh when he arrives in Dhaka as a Special Envoy of the Indian Prime Minister on February 8th. India has figured high in this government's priorities. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has spoken of the need for jointly tackling militancy and terrorism which, the Foreign Minister has resonated. The Minister for Water Resources has also spoken of the need to reactivate the Joint River Commission. The Indian High Commissioner is also making his Ministerial rounds harping upon the need for closer Bangladesh-India cooperation. Clearly, intent from both governments for improvement of bilateral relations is obvious.

Both countries have significant stakes for developing and sustaining friendly bilateral relations. Bangladesh's stakes are fundamental to her existence based on geopolitics and history. As an agricultural country, almost all the rivers that are her lifeline either originate in or flow through India. Bangladesh thus needs India to give her water sharing rights under international law as a lower riparian. Bangladesh has great economic potentials in the Bay of Bengal that is rich in sea resources and hydrocarbons but her ability to exploit these resources is in a spanner due to India's conflicting claims. There are also other serious issues related to trade imbalance, land boundary demarcation, etc. that make it extremely important for Bangladesh to be friendly with India. Then there is also the reason of history embedded in the fact that India extended assistance to Bangladesh in 1971 that impels Bangladesh to seek out India as a friend.

India's stakes in friendly relations are also significant and lie in a land transit from the Indian mainland to the seven eastern provinces or Seven Sisters that Bangladesh cuts into two that could lead to great economic benefit for these provinces and the use of Chittagong port that could also propel significant economic development there. In recent times, with militancy and terrorism getting worse in India, where security situation in her eastern provinces is extremely fragile, India is in desperate need of Bangladesh's assistance to win her war on terror. In fact, in the wake of the Mumbai carnage of November last year, the need to fight the war on terror has become the first item in India's agenda vis-à-vis Bangladesh.

Bangladesh-India relations have not developed for mutual benefit due to mutual mistrust, the stakes notwithstanding. Depending upon which side one takes, blame could be apportioned on the other for their not-so-friendly relations. The mistrust on Bangladesh's side has developed from India's denial to grant her share of waters of the common rivers law and demarcating her maritime boundary in accordance with international law. India has also not kept her commitment under the India-Mujib Agreement on land border. There is also a generally held view in Bangladesh that India is a physical threat, a fact often asserted in the common mind by the frequent shooting deaths in the border by the BSF of India. The bottom line of this negative perception is that Bangladesh feels that India is conscious of her role as a regional power but insensitive about her responsibilities to her neighbours. India feels that Bangladesh has not always conducted her foreign relations keeping India's interests in focus. This ill-feeling has enhanced further in the Indian mind because she has played a major role in Bangladesh's liberation struggle during which she has also looked after ten million refugees from Bangladesh who had fled to India to escape the Pakistani genocide. India also has serious security concerns arising from her belief that Bangladesh allows her territory to be used as sanctuary by Indian militants. India is also unhappy because Bangladesh has not reacted favorably to her requests for land transit and use of Chittagong port. Bangladesh had also earlier turned down India's request for purchase of gas, an issue no longer relevant.

The stars of Bangladesh-India relations are beginning to align correctly for a paradigm shift for the better as a result of change of both internal and external environment. However to achieve the shift, both sides must show political will. India must acknowledge that Bangladesh's claims on water sharing and the maritime boundary are based on international law and are crucial to her viability as a nation. Bangladesh must acknowledge that India's major requests, namely the land transit together with use of Chittagong port and security concerns are issues that Bangladesh must accept for long-term friendship with India although India's claims and requests are not of the same merit as her claims.

The India factor or an anti-India bias did not play any role in the December 29th elections that has sent the AL to power with such a humungous majority. But then, it would be un-wise to think that the India factor has gone. It has just receded into the background because other important issues such as the agenda of corruption under the BNP and trial of war criminals had captivated the attention of the voters. The India-factor could very well come into play strongly unless the two sides pay attention to sensitivities of the people of Bangladesh in trying to move relations ahead. In this context, the comments that the Indian High Commissioner have made on the Ganges water sharing agreement and land transit may not help improvement of bilateral relations. The High Commissioner's suggestion of transit and use of Chittagong port are issues of economics and connectivity, and Bangladesh will make money out of it. However, to stress that transit is not a political issue would give wrong signal to Bangladeshis who believe that India must not be given land transit unless she shows the political will to give Bangladesh her legitimate share of water from the common rivers and flexibility and accommodation on other outstanding issues. As for his view about depleting availability of water in the Ganges, the position is that as an upper riparian India has treaty obligations under the 1996 agreement to ensure that Bangladesh's share as the lower riparian never fell below 90% of the agreed quantum.

The India-factor should be kept in focus by Bangladesh before making any concessions; India must likewise take note of it before seeking any concession from Bangladesh when the two sides discuss bilateral issues during Mr. Pranab Mukherjee' visit. A revival of the Gujral Doctrine could work like magic here and could set the stage where outstanding issues of Bangladesh-India relations could be resolved or at least have a fair chance of resolution. The first principle of the five-point Gujral Doctrine was that with neighbours like Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives and Sri Lanka, India would not seek reciprocity but would give and accommodate what it can on good faith and trust. India must adopt a similar stance for long-term friendly relations. A start in that direction could be made by the Indian Foreign Minister by acceding to Bangladesh's maritime claims that should not be very difficult considering that this would mean India giving only a very small portion of her total territorial waters in the Bay of Bengal. For Bangladesh, this would mean a very great deal. It could also be any other outstanding issues upon which India could show that she is willing to accede without reciprocity. This could create confidence in Bangladesh to move ahead on terrorism and militancy to start with, and then slowly move towards transit and use of Chittagong port with India relenting on the water sharing issues where even Nepal and Bhutan could be brought into the loop to exploit the vast and rich potential of the rivers in the sub-region.

The ball is now in India's court. The peace dividends here are immense for both sides. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has acted wisely in speaking out positively on the issues of militancy and maritime boundary and it is now up to India to show the political will needed to shake Sheikh Hasina's hand. Bangladesh is a politically conscious nation where politics is moving towards maturity. India can settle her security concerns as well as transit need but she must first act responsively on Bangladesh's concerns regarding water sharing, maritime boundary and trade deficit.