The Independent
Saturday, 24th, August, 2013
M. Serajul Islam
Egypt is burning
and all because one General is determined to demolish what comes his way for
realizing his “swelling” ambitions to become the current day Nasser. The anti-Muslim Brotherhood (MB) groups who had urged him to take power
and bring down the elected regime of Dr. Mohammad Morsi are now finding out
that they had helped wake up the aspirations of a new dictator who is now
posturing to take Egypt back to days worse than those of the dreaded Mubarak
regime and bury the fruits of Arab Spring.
Since taking power
after millions had gathered in Tahrir Square to demand that Mohammad Morsi step
down and give new elections to the country, the Egyptian military and security
have gunned down according to its own estimates nearly 1000 Egyptians mainly in
the streets of Cairo. Those gunned down were almost all the supporters of the
Muslim Brotherhood who had chosen to challenge the military’s action against
its elected regime by gathering in the streets. The military blamed the MB for
starting the killings by shooting at the military/security. Although there may
have been some instances of shootings by MB supporters, international media has
established that the killings were almost entirely the work of the
military/security.
World opinion has
swayed against the military regime in Cairo. Unfortunately, the military led by
General Sissy seems determined to suppress MB’s demonstrations in the streets
by force and does not appear to be at all concerned at the large number of
deaths that are occurring in the streets. Egypt has not seen such bloodshed
even when the military had ruled without caring for any democratic pretensions.
In the past, when the military regimes had dealt with street demonstrations,
most notably from the MB, it had succeeded in clamping down and dispersing the
opposition. In fact, the past military regimes were able to ban the MB and keep
it out of politics as long as they rules. This time, the MB is simply refusing
to give in.
What General Sissy
and his men are trying are tactics that are from the stage of history that has
gone into the garbage. Meanwhile, Egypt has had the benefit of the Arab Spring
where people of all groups/factions, including the MB and the forces that
opposed it recently to side with the military, came together and in 18 days
ended Hosne Mubarak’s 3 decades of military and oppressive authoritarian rule.
Thereafter, the country has had both the parliamentary and presidential
elections in which the Muslim Brotherhood won democratically although its
victories in both were marginal.
The Muslim
Brotherhood unfortunately failed to focus on the fact that its democratic
victories were only marginal and that Egyptians had not given it the mandate to
impose its Islamic agenda on them. In addition, the administration of Mohammad
Morsi, inexperienced as it was, also acted in the same authoritarian way as the
hated regime that the Arab Spring had overthrown. Therefore, the massive
demonstrations in Tahrir Square against the MB’s authoritarian ways were quite
understandable. What was not understandable was the forces that had gathered at
Tahrir Square against MB’s misrule urged the military to the rescue.
In fact, what the
current situation is bringing into the centre stage about the Arab Spring is
the fact that the change that millions had achieved in January 2011 was an
incomplete one. The Tahrir Square millions believed that by removing Hosne
Mubarak, they had achieved their objective and returned home. They allowed the
military/security based on which Hosne Mubarak carried out his authoritarian
and fearsome regime to remain intact. Thus after Mubarak left, they found out
to their dismay that the military was not at all inclined to allow democracy to
be established in the country. The military interfered in both the presidential
and parliamentary elections and did almost everything to derail both.
It was by some
clever handling of the MB, particularly by Mohammad Morsi, that it was able to
assume political power from the military. The way Mohammad Morsi was able to
get rid of General Tantawi, the powerful Army Chief and Defense Minister in his
cabinet was particularly commendable. Many had expected that in the cat and
mouse game between the elected representatives and the military, the democratic
forces were winning. Unfortunately, before it could win the game against the
military, the MB upset and annoyed the democratic forces with whom it had ended
the military dictatorship of Hosne Mubarak by hurrying with its Islamic agenda.
The falling apart
of the forces that were allies during the Arab Spring was the opportunity that
the military was waiting for. It was offered by the forces against the MB in a
silver platter to the military. For the military in Egypt, it is not just
political power that motivates it, which by itself is an extremely powerful
motivation. The military in Egypt has a lifestyle that it has built over the
last half a century and more where it is by its own right, a formidable
economic power. If it loses political power, that lifestyle and stranglehold of
the economy would also go. However, unless the military goes out of political
power comprehensively, Egypt’s tryst with democracy would be nothing more than
a mirage.
This is where the
forces who went against the MB to bring the military made a fundamental error
although the MB itself must bear a great deal of responsibility for angering
and upsetting the democratic forces against it. Nevertheless, the recent
murderous actions of the military have highlighted the real dangers facing the
people of Egypt; that it must take chances with the Muslim Brotherhood that,
its fundamentalist views notwithstanding, has opted for democratic ways by
democratic means and not by inviting the military to oppress and suppress it.
Already, Al Baradei has realized that mistake and has resigned and after doing
so, now facing proceedings from the Court for betrayal. Many human rights
activists who had urged the military to intervene against the MB have retracted
and have given statements against the military. The massacres have crossed the
lines and there is no doubt that those who urged the military and now
regretting that they did so.
The MB, its
mistakes in governance notwithstanding, has shown in the face of massacres that
this MB is not the same that Nasser/Sadat/Mubarak were able to banish out on
politics by their Presidential decrees. The present MB would simply not give
in. This could be dangerous unless the military stops its rampage to browbeat
the MB to submission, which is not likely to happen. The massacres would only lead the extremist
elements in the MB to gain the upper hand and push Egypt to the brink. Al
Qaeda’s number 2 Ayman Al Zawahiri is an Egyptian and a former MB activist. He
is still alive and must be smiling at the way events are shaping in Egypt.
The urgent need is
to stop the army from its avowed path to force the MB to submission that could
push Egypt towards becoming the “next Afghanistan”. The international powers
led by the United States have that power to stop the military’s marauding ways,
not the Egyptians. The US that has made strong statements following the
massacres in Cairo after declaration of emergency but fallen short of calling
the military takeover a coup must do so and stop all aid to the military regime
immediately. The US must also urge its allies in the region that has offered
aid in billions to the new regime- the Saudis, the Kuwaitis and UAE- to
withdraw. An international alliance must be built to force the military regime
to start dialogue with the MB and all other democratic forces and give a road
map for return to democracy as soon as possible. Time is of the essence and the
international powers can wait to stop the military regime at the peril of Egypt
and world peace for if Egypt erupts, it will not spare those who have powers to
stop Egypt from self-destructing.
The writer is a former Ambassador to Egypt.
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