The Independent
26 December, 2012
M. Serajul Islam
At
a time when good news about the country has become almost a sparse commodity,
it was very heartening to read what has been written in The Guardian about the
future of the Bangladesh economy. It is no longer a matter of becoming a middle
income country anymore. If we are to believe in the article in The Guardian
that appeared in its December 18th issue, Banagladesh may be a first
world country by the year 2050 and that is not all. Bangladesh may also
overtake some of the first world economies.
The
year 2050 is unfortunately in the distant future, still nearly four decades
away. Nevertheless this news about
Bangladesh is what may be described as the substance of a dream. Economics is
not my subject. I would like to see the economists of the country debate on
this projection of The Guardian because the news has appeared before us very
suddenly and the article has not really come up with arguments, statistics,
facts that would rest the case beyond being the subject of a dream. History and
politics do not convince me seriously enough to believe in the story of The
Guardian the way I would love to.
Bangladesh
emerged in 1971 as an independent and sovereign nation under the impact of further
reshaping of nations that had emerged in the aftermath of the First and Second
World War as a consequence of decolonization. Pakistan was created hurriedly in
1947 because the British knew that the forces of decolonization were too strong
for them to stay in India any longer. In their hurry, they divided India and
created Pakistan as a homeland for the Muslims who were convinced as a
consequence of their (British) policy of divide and rule, they had no future in
an undivided India. While history has given its verdict that there was no
alternative to dividing India in 1947; subsequent history has also established
that Pakistan was created for solution of one problem but ended in creating
another.
Pakistan
was created on issue of religion that made sense in 1947. Nevertheless, it was
also an attempt of creating a state out of two different and divergent peoples
and that too with an enemy territory dividing its two parts. The mindset of the
Pakistani rulers brought out the differences quicker than what many expected.
An attempt to treat East Pakistan as a colony of West Pakistan polarized the
two wings politically bringing into the forefront Bengali nationalism. The
decision of the Pakistani rulers to deal with this rising nationalism by brute
force and ultimate genocide was thwarted as the nation came together under the
leadership of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
Bangladesh’s
emergence in 1971 was a head start that it got compared to other states that
were created after the first and Second World War that were eventually broken;
like for instance the former USSR and the former Yugoslavia. Many new states also
emerged in East Europe as a consequence. Compared to these new states,
Bangladesh was what can aptly be described as a nation builder’s dream. All the
factors that create a successful nation state were present when Bangladesh
started its journey in 1971. Its only divide was it had a 10% Hindu population
but that factor too was irrelevant because of the liberal Islam that was
present in Bangladesh at the time of its emergence, its liberal Islam being the
result of the influence of Sufism. Over everything, the people of Bangladesh
had emerged like no other nation emerged in history; a nation united like a
monolith. In Sheikh Mujibur Rahman it had a leader to whom the people gave
loyalty that no leader, not even Nelson Mandela, Mao Tse Tung, had received for
their respective peoples.
It
is a matter of a sad refection into history that the country that had come
together united by the blood and sacrifices of millions did not achieve the
possibilities that is emergence with a head start over states that emerged as a
breakdown of imperfect states in the post Second World War had opened up. True
the country was war ravaged to the rulers of the first Bangladesh government.
Nevertheless, it was the breakdown in the unity that was achieved in 1971 that
held back Bangladesh from achieving the potentials that its independence
brought to its people. The establishment of the one party rule in 1974 was the
anti-thesis of the very spirit that had brought Bangladesh together.
International conspiracy also was responsible for what happened in Bangladesh in
the tumultuous years of 1975; for taking Bangladesh in the opposite course from
the reasons why it became independent.
The
rest is history. Bangladesh is still searching that unity and in that search,
becoming more and more disunited. A vibrant private sector and the efforts of
the NGOs have brought about a transformation in the economy and society. In
society, in what Noble Laureate Amarta Sen has said many times, Bangladesh is
years ahead of India in the social indicators of economic development. Its
economy is now over US$ 100 billion making it a country worth taking note even
in economic terms. It is in a way a slap in the face of Dr. Henry Kissinger who
had said Bangladesh would be an “international basket case” at the time of its
emergence.
Nevertheless,
Bangladesh is still a LDC and in economic terms; its per capita income still in
the low US$ 700s. Its growth rate of slightly over 6% is good enough to keep it
floating but not enough for the breakthrough it needs to become middle income
group for which it would need a growth rate close to the double digit. Over all
these possibilities and prospects, including the distant prediction of The
Guardian, the politics of the country hangs literally like the Sword of
Damocles over its future. The ruling party still insists that it would hold the
next general elections under its supervision with Sheikh Hasina as the interim
Prime Minister as this is the constitutional necessity. The BNP opposes this
stand and says it is determined to force the government to accept its demand.
There
is apprehension everywhere in the country that serious threats to the nation
would emerge if the issue of the next elections is not resolved satisfactorily.
The ruling party’s General Secretary has said that the country is moving
towards a civil war. These are serious issues against which the dream
prediction of The Guardian becomes abstract; like one is even afraid to
consider such a dream for temporary relief from the dangers that many, even the
ruling party by its SG’s public utterances, are alluding. Unless this great
danger ahead is resolved satisfactorily and the lost unity of 1971 in some form
is regained, the dream that The Guardian has raised would remain just a dream.
For
setting its politics in order that is the key to its future, Bangladesh should
take a leaf out of Egypt where the politicians are letting the people decide if
the political process is moving in the right direction. In particular, the
Bangladesh ruling party should follow the move by the Egyptian ruling party to
let the people decide by referendum the validity of the constitution it drafted.
The Bangladesh ruling party should also go for a referendum to find out whether
the people want the next elections to be held under a neutral caretaker
government or under an interim government headed by incumbent Prime Minister.
For the moment, the people of the country are too worried about their immediate
future to have the luxury of dreaming on The Guardian’s report.
The writer is a retired career
Ambassador
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