Daily Sun
30 December, 2012
M. Serajul Islam
Shinzo Abe created history in Japanese politics in the elections
that was held recently.. He became the first Prime Minister since the Second
World War to return to office after losing it. He is a protégé of Junichiro
Koizumi, one of the most successful and longest serving Prime Minister of post
Second World War Japan. He has a few other credentials from family linkages.
His father was the Japanese Foreign Minister under Prime Minister Nakasone. His
grandfather from his mother’s side was Nobusuke Kishi, the Prime Minister of
Japan (1957-60). Thus when he became the youngest Prime Minister of Japan in
2007, he was expected to bring credit to himself, his office and his family
name.
Yet he had to quit as a disappointment as a Prime Minister
although he cited health reason for stepping down. His failure together with failures
of Yasuo Fukuda and Taro Aso resulted to a large extent in the resounding
defeat of the LDP in the 2009 elections. That he came back, first to be the
President of the LDP and then to lead the party to a resounding victory is to
say the least, dramatic, in the politics of a country that does not believe in political
drama. In fact, till the LDP lost power
in 2009, for the first time since 1955 except for a break for 9 months in
1993-94, Japan has been ruled by the LDP and everything about Japan’s politics was
predictable. The leaders of the factions of which there were a few, sat behind
the scene and ironed out everything,
from policies to political leaders of the party and even the Prime Minister, and the parliamentarians and LDP leaders
outside the parliament were required only to rubber stamp their decisions.
In 2009, the LDP was crushed by the Democratic Party of Japan
(DJP) that had entered Japan’s politics only in 1998. There were a lot of expectations that the
DPJ’s victory would break for good LDP’s stranglehold on the politics of the
country and establish a two-party system under which parliamentary systems work
to the best limits of their potentials. That expectation took a heavy beating
by the outcome of the 2012 elections. The LDP won 294 seats against 87 it won
in 2009. Its ally the New Komeito won 35 in the 480 member lower house. The DJP
had won 304 seats in 2009. It won only 57 seats this time. In fact a new party
floated by the popular Mayor of Tokyo Shintaro Ishihara just three seats less,
54.
On paper, the outcome could be interpreted as a “landslide” for
the LDP. On analysis though, the victory is hardly spectacular. In the first
place, only 59% voters turned out to vote, the second lowest voter turnout
since the Second World War. That hinted strongly at voters’ apathy towards
politics and political change. The LDP won 43% of the votes in the constituencies
and only 28% of votes in the proportional seats. Based on these figures, an
analyst concluded that LDP could “claim support of 30% of the Japanese people.”
In fact, leading up to the elections, the voter apathy was such that everyone
expected the 2012 elections to be the most lack luster one in recent Japanese
history. Governor Ishihara floated a
new party and cash on that apathy!
In the end, for those who voted, the choice was a negative one. In
3 years since they rejected the LDP hoping for better times, the country has
slipped in economic ways as with its foreign policy issues. Japan is going
through its third economic recession since 2000. The DPJ’s flip flop ways left
the voters’ frustrated. In foreign affairs, the DPJ with its left of centre
policies had promised to bring Japan closer to Asia and lessen its dependence
on the United States. It failed in a major way on both the choices. It did not
succeed in affecting the Japan-USA defense cooperation in a major way to
satisfy the resurgent nationalism in Japan that does not see Japan’s over
dependence on USA positively. Likewise its handling over the Senkaku-Diaoyu row
with China also frustrated many Japanese. Added to these failures, the DPJ was
unlucky with nature. The Tsunami in March, 2011 that caused the Fukushima nuclear
disaster also added to the people’s frustration with the DPG government. Frustration
on economic and foreign affairs fronts was so deep that the people failed to
give the DPJ credit for managing the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster.
The LDP under Shinzo Abe’s leadership capitalized on these DJP
failures and people’s frustration, particularly on economic recession and the
conflict with China. On economic recovery, the LDP has placed before the people
what is known in Japan as “Abenomics” that proposes heavy spending in public
and construction projects that critics term as “print and spend” policy; a
short term option that would create more long term dangers . On China, Shinzo
Abe has taken a deeply nationalistic stance for which he is well known. The
first overseas visit of the DJP Prime Minister after the party won power in
2009 was to China. Shinzo Abe has already announced that his first overseas
visit will be to Washington, no doubt intended to send a message to China that
the LDP government would focus heavily on the Japan-USA Defense Treaty. Shinzo
Abe’s return has been warmly welcomed by President Barak Obama.
On foreign affairs, Shinzo Abe has also stated that Japan’s other
focus would be on India. The hint is clear. Japan that already has a strategic
partnership with India will now become part of the USA-India strategic
partnership, intended to deal with China’s expansion in Southeast Asia and the
Pacific. In fact, under Shinzo Abe the two strategic partnerships could merge
into one USA-Japan-India strategic partnership, if not formally, at least in
the context of practical diplomacy. While stating that Japan would post regular
government officials to the Senkaku islands as a message to China, Shinzo Abe
has nevertheless assured that the Government under him would strive for
betterment of relations with China. The other question that had loomed large
over the 2012 elections was the issue of nuclear energy. Following Fukushima
disaster, there is intense debate in Japan about phasing Japan’s 30% dependence
of nuclear energy . On this issue, Shinzo Abe has stated clearly that his
government will continue to depend on nuclear energy but adhere more
stringently by higher safety standards as determined by the IAEA.
The LDP government of Shinzo Abe will be a right of centre one as
opposed to the left of centre stance of the outgoing DPJ. This notwithstanding,
the LDP’s return and that of Shinzo Abe will not inspire the average Japanese
to expect dramatic changes in governance. Shinzo Abe in his first term had
raised great expectations. His return has not aroused any such enthusiasm. It
is a return that has been more the result of the failures of the DJP on a wide
range of governance issues. One aspect to look into would be how the DPJ reorganizes
itself after such a massive defeat and whether it would be able to carry on and
provide Japan a viable two-party parliamentary system. This notwithstanding,
the LDP/New Komeito’s 2/3 majority in the lower house will allow it to rule
firmly provided Shinzo Abe is able to control the factions in his own party
effectively.
For Bangladesh, LDP is always a better alternative as the party has
provided Bangladesh great support in building a war ravaged country after its
war of liberation that Japan has continued till to date. It is the LDP’s
positive stance towards the birth of Bangladesh that has led to Japan being consistently
the largest bilateral provider of ODA to Bangladesh; twice the amount it
receives from the United States. That support would no doubt continue and be
enhanced. The fact that former Prime Minister Taro Aso is the Deputy Prime
Minister and Finance Minister in the Shinzo Abe government is a matter of great
satisfaction for Bangladesh because he is also the President of Japan-Bangladesh
Parliamentary Friendship League.
The writer is a
retired career Ambassador and Secretary
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